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Realistbear

Deflating House Prices In U K

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=ad3D31.Ub0AM

U.K. House Prices Fall for Third Month in May as Supply Climbs
By Scott "Scotty" Hamilton
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell in May for a third month as the prospect of higher taxes and the end of some disclosure rules prompted more homeowners to put their properties for sale, Acadametrics Ltd. said..../
Transactions in May declined 18 percent from April to the
lowest for the month in 15 years,
the research group said.

:D

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest KingCharles1st

People still need somewhere to live.

Uness the BTL market suddenly implodes yield wise- then things ain't gonna change much

What could make the yeild plummet, but still negate a wholesale BTL firesale....?

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=ad3D31.Ub0AM

U.K. House Prices Fall for Third Month in May as Supply Climbs
By Scott "Scotty" Hamilton
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell in May for a third month as the prospect of higher taxes and the end of some disclosure rules prompted more homeowners to put their properties for sale, Acadametrics Ltd. said..../
Transactions in May declined 18 percent from April to the
lowest for the month in 15 years,
the research group said.

:D

It all proves that our anecdotal mutterings on HPC of late are accurate. I know some very worried builders and roofers who have run out of work recently. The Land Registry is quiet, surveyors are beginning to twiddle their thumbs. Mortgage take up is low. Inventory is building. The sold boards have diminished markedly.

The seller buyer stand off phase has begun.

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June 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell in May for a third month as the prospect of higher taxes and the end of some disclosure rules prompted more homeowners to put their properties for sale, Acadametrics Ltd. said..../

Transactions in May declined 18 percent from April to the lowest for the month in 15 years, the research group said.

All the HPC planets seems to be lining up :

- Austerity budget => public sector layoffs

- Supply of cash-rich house buyers finally running out

- Supply of houses increasing rapidly

- Rics sales/stock ratio heading back down

- Government credit support schemes winding down (SLS/CLG)

- Government mortgage support schemes payment rate (fixed 6.08%) due for re-evalution this month

- Mortgage rates decoupled from BoE base rate

- Libor rising, banks still in trouble

- Main stream media going negative on debt/austerity/layoffs

The final thing I'm waiting for is the general public all knowing someone that got into debt and had their house repossessed. Only then will the anti-house sentiment truly kick in.

VMR.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=ad3D31.Ub0AM

U.K. House Prices Fall for Third Month in May as Supply Climbs
Previously reported house-price gains for March and April were revised to declines as more transaction data became available.

Looks like that Spring bounce was non-existent then?

As "Plummet Expert" says, this article just confirms many of the hpc'er's recent ancedotal observations.

My own street is full of "For Sale" signs, with neighbours puzzled as to why they have not had any viewers.

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It all proves that our anecdotal mutterings on HPC of late are accurate. I know some very worried builders and roofers who have run out of work recently. The Land Registry is quiet, surveyors are beginning to twiddle their thumbs. Mortgage take up is low. Inventory is building. The sold boards have diminished markedly.

The seller buyer stand off phase has begun.

if you check RightMove with PropertyBee for properties added in last 24h usually 30% will be price reductions ...

Including South East like Essex ....

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All the HPC planets seems to be lining up :

- Austerity budget => public sector layoffs

- Supply of cash-rich house buyers finally running out

- Supply of houses increasing rapidly

- Rics sales/stock ratio heading back down

- Government credit support schemes winding down (SLS/CLG)

- Government mortgage support schemes payment rate (fixed 6.08%) due for re-evalution this month

- Mortgage rates decoupled from BoE base rate

- Libor rising, banks still in trouble

- Main stream media going negative on debt/austerity/layoffs

The final thing I'm waiting for is the general public all knowing someone that got into debt and had their house repossessed. Only then will the anti-house sentiment truly kick in.

VMR.

So true and so overdue.

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Looks like that Spring bounce was non-existent then?

As "Plummet Expert" says, this article just confirms many of the hpc'er's recent ancedotal observations.

My own street is full of "For Sale" signs, with neighbours puzzled as to why they have not had any viewers.

What are some of the ballpark (crackpot?) theories they are coming up with?

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People still need somewhere to live.

Uness the BTL market suddenly implodes yield wise- then things ain't gonna change much

What could make the yeild plummet, but still negate a wholesale BTL firesale....?

the CML are worried too

CML director general Michael Coogan commented:

"With all eyes on the new government and what steps it will take to address the fiscal deficit, we cannot emphasise too strongly the importance of continuing to fund the support mechanisms that are proving effective in containing mortgage arrears and repossessions.
"We hope and expect to be able to revise down our 53,000 forecast for repossessions in 2010, but we are acutely conscious of the beneficial influence that low interest rates and the package of support have played so far. The dampening effects on households and the wider housing market that fiscal tightening is likely to exert are still to be felt, but it should be a key priority to support borrowers most in need and maintain funding for the government’s housing policies."

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2612

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CML director general Michael Coogan commented:

"With all eyes on the new government and what steps it will take to address the fiscal deficit, we cannot emphasise too strongly the importance of continuing to fund the support mechanisms that are proving effective in containing mortgage arrears and repossessions.
That'll be the £300-400bn of cheap credit/guarantees the government is supporting the mortgage market with then. Will the govt keep it going (and so it looks like national debt) or won't they (causing bank crash phase 2) ?
I cannot empahise too strongly the importance of making the people that fecked up pay for their mistakes.
VMR.

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the CML are worried too

CML director general Michael Coogan commented:

"With all eyes on the new government and what steps it will take to address the fiscal deficit, we cannot emphasise too strongly the importance of continuing to fund the support mechanisms that are proving effective in containing mortgage arrears and repossessions.
"We hope and expect to be able to revise down our 53,000 forecast for repossessions in 2010, but we are acutely conscious of the beneficial influence that low interest rates and the package of support have played so far. The dampening effects on households and the wider housing market that fiscal tightening is likely to exert are still to be felt, but it should be a key priority to support borrowers most in need and maintain funding for the government’s housing policies."

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2612

It's amazing how fast things are changing now. Just a month or too ago the CML was very optimistic. Now they seem to have accepted the Market will fall but it's just a question of how much.

In the msm also just a month back it was 'signs the Market is dlowing' then 'further signs the Market is slowing' then 'signs the Market is stagnating' the 'further signs the Market is stagnating' next I expect 'signs the Market is falling' and then 'oh sh1t it's a house price crash! Those gods on HPC were right!'

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....

I cannot empahise too strongly the importance of making the people that fecked up pay for their mistakes.

....

Not many votes to be had in that strategy my friend....

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What are some of the ballpark (crackpot?) theories they are coming up with?

:lol:

oh there is an abundance of excuses, and my suggestion to reduce their prices has so far fallen on deaf ears, because they think the "right buyer" will eventually come along.

It will be interesting to see how sellers thinking will of changed, come this autumn.

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laugh.gif

oh there is an abundance of excuses, and my suggestion to reduce their prices has so far fallen on deaf ears, because they think the "right buyer" will eventually come along.

It will be interesting to see how sellers thinking will of changed, come this autumn.

Yes, Krusty and her trusty sidekick have a lot to answer for, they and others have people totally confused about where buyers come from.

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People still need somewhere to live.

Uness the BTL market suddenly implodes yield wise- then things ain't gonna change much

What could make the yeild plummet, but still negate a wholesale BTL firesale....?

<pedant> Yeild = Yield </pedant>

Lots of people who have spare rooms being short of cash and looking to take in a lodger.

People being made redundant and moving in with friends and family and leaving their rented property or renting their house out to cover the mortgage.

Cuts in Local Housing Allowance or merely the elimination of the unscripted escalator.

People retiring and renting retirement cottages or moving into care and then renting out they old family home.

Changes in council tax rules removing the tax-free period and reductions for empty rental properties forcing landlords to rent them out to have someone pay the council tax rather than leaving them empty.

The list is endless, the BTL boom will not be.

Edit to add: MARGIN CALLS

Edited by TaxAbuserOfTheWeek

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<pedant> Yeild = Yield </pedant>

Lots of people who have spare rooms being short of cash and looking to take in a lodger.

People being made redundant and moving in with friends and family and leaving their rented property or renting their house out to cover the mortgage.

Cuts in Local Housing Allowance or merely the elimination of the unscripted escalator.

People retiring and renting retirement cottages or moving into care and then renting out they old family home.

Changes in council tax rules removing the tax-free period and reductions for empty rental properties forcing landlords to rent them out to have someone pay the council tax rather than leaving them empty.

The list is endless, the BTL boom will not be.

Edit to add: MARGIN CALLS

Less students for the BTLs

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It all proves that our anecdotal mutterings on HPC of late are accurate. I know some very worried builders and roofers who have run out of work recently. The Land Registry is quiet, surveyors are beginning to twiddle their thumbs. Mortgage take up is low. Inventory is building. The sold boards have diminished markedly.

The seller buyer stand off phase has begun.

My contrarian anecdotal - spoke to an unemployed plasterer a month ago: ground workers are being brought back to sites that were shut down in the crunch, and he expects this will lead to more work for him in the coming months. I've heard a few construction guys confirm this, although I suspect it's said more in hope than from accurate observation.Another thing I notice driving around suburban streets is that they are clogged with workmen's vans parked up on the pavement - all doing small renovation work on bungalows etc. Seems like a trend since start of year in my area. Anyone else noticing this? Maybe people are adding bedrooms to take in lodgers! And don't get me started on the shagging roadworks - aaaarrrggghh.Overall, I'm quite sure construction workers are on 50% rates compared to two years ago.ps. Can someone tell me why I can't do paragraphs using google chrome?

Edited by okaycuckoo

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<br />All the HPC planets seems to be lining up :<br /><br />- Austerity budget => public sector layoffs<br />- Supply of cash-rich house buyers finally running out<br />- Supply of houses increasing rapidly<br />- Rics sales/stock ratio heading back down<br />- Government credit support schemes winding down (SLS/CLG)<br />- Government mortgage support schemes payment rate (fixed 6.08%) due for re-evalution this month<br />- Mortgage rates decoupled from BoE base rate<br />- Libor rising, banks still in trouble<br />- Main stream media going negative on debt/austerity/layoffs<br /><br /><br />The final thing I'm waiting for is the general public all knowing someone that got into debt and had their house repossessed. Only then will the anti-house sentiment truly kick in.<br /><br />VMR.<br />
<br /><br /><br />

Huge load of repo houses being trickle fed onto the market by banks - who are going to be trashed by falling prices if they don't get rid of them!

Will the billions of public tax money supporting non-owners in their houses (paying their mortgage/interest) be phased out?

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Another thing I notice driving around suburban streets is that they are clogged with workmen's vans parked up on the pavement - all doing small renovation work on bungalows etc. Seems like a trend since start of year in my area.

Start of new financial year, the council have their new budget so they start work on council house upgrades like double glazing, new kitchens etc.

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People still need somewhere to live.

Uness the BTL market suddenly implodes yield wise- then things ain't gonna change much

What could make the yeild plummet, but still negate a wholesale BTL firesale....?

reduction in housing benefits amounts

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Less students for the BTLs

...the students can't afford the BTL rents, the government can't afford the BTL rents...unless they are prepared to take on more debt. ;)

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Start of new financial year, the council have their new budget so they start work on council house upgrades like double glazing, new kitchens etc.

I'm sure there wasn't this amount of vans in past years.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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