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D E F L A T I O N More Serious Economists Now See It

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/7810227/Economists-survey-of-the-UK-is-inflation-or-deflation-a-greater-risk-to-the-economy.html

Economists' survey of the UK: is inflation or deflation a greater risk to the economy?

The Telegraph is publishing the full responses to our Economic Survey, so that you can decide for yourself where we’re heading. We asked the 25 economists ten questions.

Published: 12:39PM BST 09 Jun 2010

Alan Clarke, UK Economist, BNP Paribas

Balanced

Andrew Lilico, Policy Exchange

The more damaging is deflation, and the risk of that is “high”.

Howard Archer, IHS Global Insight

Inflation.

Douglas McWilliams, CEBR

Roughly equal

Ross Walker, UK Economist, RBS

Over a 5-year period: inflation

George Magnus, Senior Economic Adviser, UBS Investment Bank

Deflation.

Gerard Lyons, Chief Economist, Standard Chartered Bank

Deflation.

Neil Mellor, BNY Mellon

On balance, deflation.

Danny Blanchflower, Professor of Economics, Dartmouth College

Deflation is the main risk.

George Buckley, Deutsche Bank

Difficult to say

Ian Harwood, Chief Economist, Evolution Securities

Deflation - both in the UK and globally.

Simon Ward, Henderson Global Investors

Inflation

David Owen, Chief European Economist, Jefferies

Biggest risk in the UK is inflation unlike the Eurozone where biggest risk is deflation (theJapanese trap).

Philip Shaw, Chief Economist, Investec

Deflation risks are probably waning.

Stuart Green, Chief UK Economist, HSBC

Short-term risks undoubtedly relate to inflation

Vicky Redwood, UK Economist, Capital Economics

The greatest risk is deflation, due to the large amount of spare capacity in the economy.

Malcolm Barr, Chief UK Economist, JP Morgan

If you had to push me I would probably say inflation.

Peter Spencer, Professor at University of York, and Economic Advisor to Ernst & Young Item Club

Neither of these is on my worry list, but if pressed I'd still say deflation.

Tim Congdon, Chief Executive, International Monetary Research

Now that central banks realize that QE-type operations can be conducted to stop any recession, inflation is more of a risk than deflation.

Peter Warburton, Economic Perspectives

The greater risk is of high and variable inflation.

Jamie Dannhauser, Senior Economist, Lombard Street Research

Deflation

Azad Zangana, European Economist, Schroders Investment Management

Over the next five years, we think inflation is more of a risk than deflation

Realistbear, Housepricecrash forum's poster extraordinaire

Deflation as the aftermath of a bubble bursting is not inflation where global pressure and international bond markets are more active in regulating the temptation of goverments to cheat thir debtors by inflating away the problems.

Edited by Realistbear

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I See...the cure to the debt problem is a RISK.

the risk was taken when they started the stupid lending on unproductive purposes.

deflation is the sword cutting the waste and making sure the losers lose. Savers will be rewarded.

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Guest KingCharles1st

So 10 out of 25 say deflation

This more shows the fact that vi investor sharks WANT inflation to get them out the shit, and the others, well...

I mean, what sort of answer is "roughly equal" FFS!!

Edited by KingCharles1st

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So 10 out of 25 say deflation

This more shows the fact that vi investor sharks WANT inflation to get them out the shit, and the others, well...

I mean, what sort of answer is "roughly equal" FFS!!

22 expressed views in this poll. 10 deflationists (1 sees inflation in post Brown UK but deflation elsewhere) 3 admitted they were clueless.

Edited by Realistbear

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View PostRealistbear, on 04 June 2010 - 06:03 PM, said:

The reality is that everyone is "debasing" their currencies.

I guess in the distorted world view of RB, deflation and debasing are the same thing...

---

Edited by wise_eagle

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If you've just jumped into your life raft, the wind is rising and the seas are getting choppy - then deflation is by far the greater risk. Don't rock the boat!

Just reading about the young sailor who has been found alive B)

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If you've just jumped into your life raft, the wind is rising and the seas are getting choppy - then deflation is by far the greater risk. Don't rock the boat!

Just reading about the young sailor who has been found alive B)

There is no risk of deflation because those who owe the most money also own the printing press.

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View PostRealistbear, on 04 June 2010 - 06:03 PM, said:

The reality is that everyone is "debasing" their currencies.

The reality is that everyone is debasing their currencies.

A concerted effort to devalue to beat the competition. However this is not a buy signal for gold!

If enough nations do this you end up in a deflationary cycle as goods fall in value due to a reduced ability to import which in turns impacts the exporter. Try to think in terms of physics and counter-actions.

Your "point" is a superficial interpretation of my original point that you need to think through. The point you miss is bolded:

The reality is that everyone is debasing their currencies.

But what I think is slightly less important than the growing consensus that when bubbles deflate deflation occurs. The reality is happening before our eyes and it is good news for those waiting to buy a home to live in at a deflated price.

Edited by Realistbear

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The reality is that everyone is debasing their currencies.

A concerted effort to devalue to beat the competition. However this is not a buy signal for gold!

If enough nations do this you end up in a deflationary cycle as goods fall in value due to a reduced ability to import which in turns impacts the exporter. Try to think in terms of physics and counter-actions.

Your "point" is a superficial interpretation of my original point that you need to think through. The point you miss is bolded:

The reality is that everyone is debasing their currencies.

But what I think is slightly less important than the growing consensus that when bubbles deflate deflation occurs. The reality is happening before our eyes and it is good news for those waiting to buy a home to live in at a deflated price.

debasing the currency means a loss of value..which is inflation.

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The reality is that everyone is debasing their currencies.

A concerted effort to devalue to beat the competition. However this is not a buy signal for gold!

If enough nations do this you end up in a deflationary cycle as goods fall in value due to a reduced ability to import which in turns impacts the exporter. Try to think in terms of physics and counter-actions.

Your "point" is a superficial interpretation of my original point that you need to think through. The point you miss is bolded:

The reality is that everyone is debasing their currencies.

But what I think is slightly less important than the growing consensus that when bubbles deflate deflation occurs. The reality is happening before our eyes and it is good news for those waiting to buy a home to live in at a deflated price.

Where is the logic in your arguments?

If everyone is debasing, then what are they debasing against if not commodities?

Why is that not a buy signal for gold?

I thing you need to take a deep breath and think your whole mental construct over again...

---

Edited by wise_eagle

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AA3 - noted QE advocate - I'm in the deflation camp. Overcapacity, rising unemployment, income falling relative to productivity..

Most of all it depends on the actions of national governments around the world. Clearly the budget hawks are gaining the upper hand across the western world.

If a national government is willing to print and spend hard enough it can overcome deflationary forces. But I've always felt national governments would not be willing to do that.

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There is no risk of deflation because those who owe the most money also own the printing press.

You may not have noticed it but the printing presses in the US have created a scenario where inflation has fallen to the lowest rate since WW2.

When the deflation spiral begins no amount of stimulation can prevent it as we have seen in Japan. The global economy and powerful bond markets counterblance in ways not seen before. The attempt to circumvent the checks and balances of globalism has been to devalue but this too has failed to stem the deflationary trend.

With more and more economists now seeing deflation coming it does suggest that the expected scenario of inflation and soaring gold prices has not occurred. Overcapacity, bond restraints and credit restriction in the aftermath of bursting bubbles is the perfect recipe for deflation.

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The reality is that everyone is debasing their currencies.

A concerted effort to devalue to beat the competition. However this is not a buy signal for gold!

I never said it was. Gol dis a useless yellow metal - the ultimate bubble stuff.

If enough nations do this you end up in a deflationary cycle as goods fall in value due to a reduced ability to import which in turns impacts the exporter. Try to think in terms of physics and counter-actions.

No you don't - you wind up with every flat surface of the earth covered with woerthless paper money. The value fo something is based on how much of it there is.

Your "point" is a superficial interpretation of my original point that you need to think through. The point you miss is bolded:

The reality is that everyone is debasing their currencies.

But what I think is slightly less important than the growing consensus that when bubbles deflate deflation occurs. The reality is happening before our eyes and it is good news for those waiting to buy a home to live in at a deflated price.

RB - lets say we have two bakeries. One makes brown loaves, one makes white.

They get into heavy competition with each other and they each create ever more loaves in the hope of beating each other - they make so many loaves that they are everywhere - every flat surface has a loaf balanced on it, they are stacked miles high. People have to pay to get rid of them, work to find some space away from the damn things.

Your contention is that in such a scenario the price of the loaves, both brown and white would only go up and the only thing that matters is how many brown loaves there are relative to the white ones and vice versa.

Which is complete and utter crap, obviously. you are either shilling or stupid.

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AA3 - noted QE advocate - I'm in the deflation camp. Overcapacity, rising unemployment, income falling relative to productivity..

Most of all it depends on the actions of national governments around the world. Clearly the budget hawks are gaining the upper hand across the western world.

If a national government is willing to print and spend hard enough it can overcome deflationary forces. But I've always felt national governments would not be willing to do that.

My point exactly. Attempted devaluation is not working to inflate our troubles away.

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So 10 out of 25 say deflation

This more shows the fact that vi investor sharks WANT inflation to get them out the shit, and the others, well...

I mean, what sort of answer is "roughly equal" FFS!!

Quite - and what precisely is the point of a survey like this? In any case, as you say, all are VIs and most want inflation to get rid of the debt burden.

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You may not have noticed it but the printing presses in the US have created a scenario where inflation has fallen to the lowest rate since WW2.

no it hasn't The US hyperinflated june 2009 and all thsi deflation talk is designed to get peopel to sit still and eat losses as the wave of fresh cash makes it's way through the economy.

When the deflation spiral begins no amount of stimulation can prevent it as we have seen in Japan. The global economy and powerful bond markets counterblance in ways not seen before. The attempt to circumvent the checks and balances of globalism has been to devalue but this too has failed to stem the deflationary trend.

Japan hyperinflated and exported it's yen.

With more and more economists now seeing deflation coming it does suggest that the expected scenario of inflation and soaring gold prices has not occurred. Overcapacity, bond restraints and credit restriction in the aftermath of bursting bubbles is the perfect recipe for deflation.

****** gold.

Deflation has never, ever happened under any paper money regime anywhere at any point in history and isn't happening now.

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I thought RB was arguing that the price of loaves was going down?

Deflation generalyl means 1 of two things (1 of these is wrong, but stuff it for now) -

1) The amount of money is decreasing

2) General level of prices is rising.

RB is out;ining a strong case for inflation but USING CAPITAL LETTERS FOR THE WORD DEFLATION like some sort of twit.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/7810227/Economists-survey-of-the-UK-is-inflation-or-deflation-a-greater-risk-to-the-economy.html

Economists' survey of the UK: is inflation or deflation a greater risk to the economy?

The Telegraph is publishing the full responses to our Economic Survey, so that you can decide for yourself where we’re heading. We asked the 25 economists ten questions.

Published: 12:39PM BST 09 Jun 2010

Alan Clarke, UK Economist, BNP Paribas

Balanced

Andrew Lilico, Policy Exchange

The more damaging is deflation, and the risk of that is “high”.

Howard Archer, IHS Global Insight

Inflation.

Douglas McWilliams, CEBR

Roughly equal

Ross Walker, UK Economist, RBS

Over a 5-year period: inflation

George Magnus, Senior Economic Adviser, UBS Investment Bank

Deflation.

Gerard Lyons, Chief Economist, Standard Chartered Bank

Deflation.

Neil Mellor, BNY Mellon

On balance, deflation.

Danny Blanchflower, Professor of Economics, Dartmouth College

Deflation is the main risk.

George Buckley, Deutsche Bank

Difficult to say

Ian Harwood, Chief Economist, Evolution Securities

Deflation - both in the UK and globally.

Simon Ward, Henderson Global Investors

Inflation

David Owen, Chief European Economist, Jefferies

Biggest risk in the UK is inflation unlike the Eurozone where biggest risk is deflation (theJapanese trap).

Philip Shaw, Chief Economist, Investec

Deflation risks are probably waning.

Stuart Green, Chief UK Economist, HSBC

Short-term risks undoubtedly relate to inflation

Vicky Redwood, UK Economist, Capital Economics

The greatest risk is deflation, due to the large amount of spare capacity in the economy.

Malcolm Barr, Chief UK Economist, JP Morgan

If you had to push me I would probably say inflation.

Peter Spencer, Professor at University of York, and Economic Advisor to Ernst & Young Item Club

Neither of these is on my worry list, but if pressed I'd still say deflation.

Tim Congdon, Chief Executive, International Monetary Research

Now that central banks realize that QE-type operations can be conducted to stop any recession, inflation is more of a risk than deflation.

Peter Warburton, Economic Perspectives

The greater risk is of high and variable inflation.

Jamie Dannhauser, Senior Economist, Lombard Street Research

Deflation

Azad Zangana, European Economist, Schroders Investment Management

Over the next five years, we think inflation is more of a risk than deflation

Realistbear, Housepricecrash forum's poster extraordinaire

Deflation as the aftermath of a bubble bursting is not inflation where global pressure and international bond markets are more active in regulating the temptation of goverments to cheat thir debtors by inflating away the problems.

Isn't it likely that tvarious VI's just using deflation as a bogeyman to pressure the government into keeping interest rates low and

into printing more money so that they can keep on further enriching themselves on the cheap money gravy train that they've

been having such a great ride on since 2008? I disregard Blanchlower in that statement, I don't think hes a VI, I think he should just be

disregarded in all circumstances.

Apart from that...I see no signs of deflation, current UK situation points to more inflation, and there is so much debt around I can't see

politicians being able to resist the temptation to inflate some of it away.

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Guest KingCharles1st

I thought RB was arguing that the price of loaves was going down?

I'm worried that granary loaves haven't had a mention :huh:

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Deflation generalyl means 1 of two things (1 of these is wrong, but stuff it for now) -

1) The amount of money is decreasing

2) General level of prices is rising.

RB is out;ining a strong case for inflation but USING CAPITAL LETTERS FOR THE WORD DEFLATION like some sort of twit.

Is he a closet inflationist? I doubt it.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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