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Realistbear

D O W Heads Skyward On Grim News

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FTSE All Share 2629.87 7.51 +0.29%

Dow 10,077.38 +178.13 +1.80%*

Irrational exuberance returns perhaps?

* http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Trade-deficit-rises-demand-apf-3546746343.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Trade deficit rises, demand for exports slips

Trade deficit rises to $40.3B in April, highest in 16 months, as demand for exports slips

Edited by Realistbear

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Oops, I got it wrong, DOW and FTSE in tow head for the sky due to:

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks are set to rebound Thursday after reports showed unemployment claims fell in the U.S. last week and China's economy has not been slowed by the European sovereign debt crisis.

Yes folks, all is well because we are importing more Chinese stuff! Lesson not learned, back to the beginning.

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moneyprinter.jpg

Money supply in the US is at a post-war low (M3) and credit is still contracting.

Deflation is on the radar now as the Fed just reported the lowest level of inflation in 60 years. If the rate of inflation continues we will be in deflationary territory within a few months. Maybe less.

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Money supply in the US is at a post-war low (M3) and credit is still contracting.

How do you know?

They stopped showing M3 around 4 years back to hide printy printy....

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Deflation is on the radar now as the Fed just reported the lowest level of inflation in 60 years.

OMG. The Fed reported it? Well then, it must be true! :lol:

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Unemployment claims fell because they gave up looking for work or because people found jobs.

Lots of new permanent posts being created then?

Perhaps it's because they realise the recovery is locked in.

Will the US be expecting BP to pay nationwide jobless claims now? Hey, why not let them pick up the tab for AIG as well!

From what I see lots of unemployed folks are being employed in the clean up effort, paid for by......BP

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Where's the BBC getting all it's data from as something is wrong it's all red?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/default.stm

MARKET DATA - 15:23 UK

FTSE 100

5060.01down

-25.85 -0.51%

Dax

5968.99down

-15.76 -0.26%

Cac 40

3427.52down

-19.25 -0.56%

Dow Jones

9899.25down

-40.73 -0.41%

Nasdaq

2158.85down

-11.72 -0.54%

BBC Global 30

5240.61down

-16.03 -0.30%

Everywhere else it's up, how can this feed be so wrong when compared to everyone elses?

From the Telegraph

FTSE 100 5,139 +1.1%

FTSE 250 9,598 +1.2%

Dow 10,098 +2.0%

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How do you know?

They stopped showing M3 around 4 years back to hide printy printy....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7769126/US-money-supply-plunges-at-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html

US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus
The M3 money supply in the United States is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history.../
"It’s frightening," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets. This is why the US is not recovering properly," he said.

Deflation is not yet here but it cometh. Came back from the hills and rejoice as cheap houses arriveth soon!

Edited by Realistbear

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Some good advice from the person who has the most hits on his website than anyone else in the world (other than institutional websites):

http://www.kenrockwell.com/tech/how-to-afford-anything.htm#stocks

Gambling (the Stock Market)

Playing stocks, bonds and institutionalized financial investments is just Las Vegas for the middle class. Exactly like Las Vegas, the only people who win long-term are the salespeople, who call themselves things like "brokers" and "financial consultants."

All the rich people I know are honest, and admit that they've only lost money in the stock market, long term.

Just like Las Vegas, most people are always bragging about how much they won on one day, but will never tell anyone about what they lost another day.

I made over a million dollars in the great tech stock run-up from the 1980s through the great NASDAQ crash of April, 2000. That is, I would have made a million dollars if I has sold just before the crash on 15 April 2000.

I didn't, and the entire NASDAQ crashed from 5,700 to about 1,700 in a few weeks. I lost everything I had put in. Everything. I lost all my fun money that I had set aside for about 15 years. It's all gone, forever. I never collected the million dollars; all the stocks I owned became worthless and I was out everything.

If the NASDAQ only crashed to 1,700 from 5,700, how could I have lost everything?

I never realized it, but the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are all "cooked" numbers. They are not the "market," but instead merely averages of whatever stocks the creators of those numbers (Dow Jones or Standard & Poor's, etc.) choose for their indices to keep the "market" looking good to attract unwary investors.

When Kodak was a strong company, it was part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). As digital replaced film, Kodak died, and was removed from the DJIA index in 2004.

Market indices therefore overrepresent the markets, since these indices are chosen to include only the best-performing parts of the markets they claim to represent.

As I learned all too hard, even though the NASDAQ index only crashed by 70%, the stocks I happened to own went down by 99.9%. My stocks were traded on NASDAQ, but were not part of that index.

All I lost was everything. Even stupider people borrowed money from stock brokerage houses with which to gamble, and wound up owing money they never even had! This is called "buying on margin," and when things go south, can leave you in debt to the brokerage houses to whom you had done nothing but give money for years!

Over long periods of time, which are the only time periods that matter, market indices do not represent the markets which they claim to represent. They overrepresent the returns from that market.

Even if indices were honest, let's be even more honest. The DJIA was 11,000 back in 1999, and today in 2010, it's even less. Your stocks have probably done worse.

Stocks only make money for the people selling them to you. People love to gamble, and the house always wins.

I once got 20 minutes alone with the Chief Financial Officer of the multi-billion-dollar corporation for which I used to work. He had just given an hour-long presentation on how he presented our corporation's NYSE-traded stock to make it look good to the institutional investors to whom he tried to sell our stock. He was talking about things that I, as an investor with decades of experience, had never heard. He was big-time, knowing kinds of numbers and ways to evaluate, analyze and present stocks to the fund managers at places like Fidelity, who invest by the billions of dollars.

When I asked him how I could have made such great returns on my own portfolio for 15 years (I turned $100,000 into $1,000,000 in 15 years), and then lose everything (back to $0 in 15 days), he knew exactly what happened.

He told me that, just like Las Vegas, I wasn't all that smart, but that I had had a lucky streak. Everyone gets them, and starts to feel smart. When things go the other way, these people, like me, never even know what hit them.

He then went on to explain how the stock market is all a competition where the smarter people take money from the great majority of more gullible people.

The smarter people are the fund managers at major institutions. These guys have PhDs from Yale and Harvard in Economics, and are paid six, and often seven-figure incomes precisely because they are smart enough to outsmart everyone else, long-term.

It's not that difficult to outperform the market for years on end. Some people are just lucky. I did that.

The smarter guys are those who can outperform the market for decades and decades at a time, and not go negative.

These guys are few and far between. Everyone else, meaning me, are among the stupider people whose money pays these smarter guys.

My brilliant CFO colleague, who knows every in and out of the stock market, confided that unless you're good enough to outsmart these other guys, that if you buy individual stocks, you will always lose against them, long term.

If my CFO colleague won't buy individual stocks, even though he knows every possible in and out, then what was his advice to me? Pick a mutual fund managed by a good institution (like Fidelity or Vanguard), and stick with it. Even more enlightening was him explaining that past performance really has nothing to do with the future, so it didn't really even matter which fund you chose! He did the same thing; he wouldn't buy individual stocks with his own money.

The stock market, or indexes and mutual funds, usually only make money for the people selling them to you.

The rich people I know play the stock market as they'll play Vegas: purely for fun. To make a profit, they invest their money in something they can control: their own businesses.

The reason you never hear any of this in commercial media is simple: the stock brokerage houses pay a lot of money to advertise. You'll never hear the truth that giving them your money is about as unprofitable as a trip to Vegas, just slower.

Flashy stock houses, just like flashy Las Vegas casinos, fund all their fancy buildings from the profits then take from gamblers.

If you do invest in stocks or companies, don't invest in your employer's company for retirement. If they go south, not only have you lost your job, you lose your nest egg at the same time.

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Some good advice from the person who has the most hits on his website than anyone else in the world (other than institutional

Very interesting link RB. I notice your man Ken Rockwell says

"If big business has its way, which it usually does since those with the gold make the rules, business will suck every penny you have out of you until you can't earn any more and are left dead or dying. This is the way a competitive economy works: there are winners and there are losers. "

:rolleyes:

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Very interesting link RB. I notice your man Ken Rockwell says

"If big business has its way, which it usually does since those with the gold make the rules, business will suck every penny you have out of you until you can't earn any more and are left dead or dying. This is the way a competitive economy works: there are winners and there are losers. "

:rolleyes:

Did you forget to add that usually leaves to revolution/war?

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More upbeat news to keep the party going for awhile longer:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-top-76-dollars-on-chinese-data-iea-report-afp-bd57c050ddbd.html?x=0

Oil prices top 76 dollars on Chinese data, IEA report
17:59, Thursday 10 June 2010
World oil prices topped 76 dollars on Thursday, boosted by positive Chinese trade data and an
upbeat energy demand outlook
from the International Energy Agency, dealers said.

Oh, what joy!!! :D

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17:59, Thursday 10 June 2010

World oil prices topped 76 dollars on Thursday, boosted by positive Chinese trade data and an upbeat energy demand outlook from the International Energy Agency, dealers said.[/indent]

Oh, what joy!!! :D

Indeed! 'Tis always a pleasure to pay more for oil/gas etc. Equally, I love to pay more for houses as well. The more expensive the better.

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Must be this good news. :rolleyes:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10287155.stm

US trade deficit widens to 16-month high

Container ship Trade still remains below levels seen before the global financial crisis

The US trade deficit widened to a 16-month high in April, as both imports and exports fell slightly.

According to the Commerce Department's data the total monthly deficit was $40.3bn (£27.5bn), up 0.6% from March

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7769126/US-money-supply-plunges-at-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html

US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus
The M3 money supply in the United States is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history.../
"It’s frightening," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets. This is why the US is not recovering properly," he said.

Deflation is not yet here but it cometh. Came back from the hills and rejoice as cheap houses arriveth soon!

deflation is impossible , the government will just mail out stimulus cheques again if it looks like being deflation

Edited by Ruffneck

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  • 191 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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