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Hedge Funds Betting On Black Swan

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/black-swan-hedge-funds-gain-in-turbulent-may-reuters_molt-41fb7328a8a9.html?x=0

"Black Swan" hedge funds gain in turbulent May

Symbol Price Change

BP.L 366.65 -25.25

Laurence "Larry" Fletcher, 8:45, Thursday 10 June 2010

LONDON (Reuters) - European hedge funds betting on the fallout from unforeseen events were among a small band of winners in a stormy May for investors, and they predict things could get worse rather than better over the next three months.

Have the hedge punters got it wrong? Or is it smart to folla da money?

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Did I read somewhere that the hedgies recently lost a wedge of cash betting on black?

Sounds like they have pushed a pile of chips onto red in the hope of winning back their losses.

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/black-swan-hedge-funds-gain-in-turbulent-may-reuters_molt-41fb7328a8a9.html?x=0

"Black Swan" hedge funds gain in turbulent May

Symbol Price Change

BP.L 366.65 -25.25

Laurence "Larry" Fletcher, 8:45, Thursday 10 June 2010

LONDON (Reuters) - European hedge funds betting on the fallout from unforeseen events were among a small band of winners in a stormy May for investors, and they predict things could get worse rather than better over the next three months.

Have the hedge punters got it wrong? Or is it smart to folla da money?

Always remember that the majority of a group are more stupid than the smartest members of said group.

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Did I read somewhere that the hedgies recently lost a wedge of cash betting on black?

Sounds like they have pushed a pile of chips onto red in the hope of winning back their losses.

You make it sound like they are gambling with other people's money in a positive-return casino. (thanks to pension fund members).

Perish the thought.

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Another 'Black Swan' thread. This has to be one of the more overused and misunderstood phrases on HPC at the moment. By definition it's a completely unexpected event that arrives out of the blue. Betting on European sovereign default hardly qualifies for this as people are already talking about it and you could argue 'pricing it in'.

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Have the hedge punters got it wrong? Or is it smart to folla da money?

Hedgies make bets on what they believe. Get some right, get some wrong.

What's more, they're not a uniform herd. When one hedgie bets on collapse, another is betting on them being wrong ... and vice versa.

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Another 'Black Swan' thread. This has to be one of the more overused and misunderstood phrases on HPC at the moment. By definition it's a completely unexpected event that arrives out of the blue. Betting on European sovereign default hardly qualifies for this as people are already talking about it and you could argue 'pricing it in'.

Yes, a black swan event would be something out of the blue that, with hindsight, we all will say we should have realise but somehow, collectively, we did not.

So, for example, Greece defaulting this afternoon would technically not be a black swan event but, um, Italy announcing today that it is bust could well be classed as one. Or Iran bombing Israel or vice versa or, Heaven forbid, some 911 type attack.

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Did I read somewhere that the hedgies recently lost a wedge of cash betting on black?

Sounds like they have pushed a pile of chips onto red in the hope of winning back their losses.

This thread said they had a bad May or has there been another post about them recently?

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There's thousands of black swans all around the Gulf Of Mexico these days . . . at least I think they're black swans underneath all that oil:

oil-bird.jpg

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not really a "black swan" if we see it coming?!

I seem to remember reading about a raid police conducted against 80 or so fortune tellers across Italy.

The police had a point - if they were genuinely able to see the future the fortune tellers would have known the police were coming in advance and made off with their well-deserved gains.

It's a fair cop, guv.

Edited by Dave Spart

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