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Bob Janjuah Prepares For A Sell Off To Below 850, And A Coordinated $10 Trillion Quantitative Easing Part 2

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http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bob-janjuah-prepares-sell-below-850-and-coordinated-10-trillion-quantiative-easing-part-2

'All that's now left, as I have said before, is for the Fed to shift to a USD5trn or so new QE programme, likely in co-ordination with a bunch of other central banks, which in total may give us USD10trn or more of new QE. But this isn't happening until much much later this yr or, more likely, next yr.

2 - For the inflationists out there, you must accept that the true private sector trend, which govt's have fought hard against but where defeat for govt now looks clear, is one of debt deflation.

Tactically, I still think the real fireworks and nastiness will be a July/Aug/Sept phenomena. HOWEVER, shrt term the key zone is, in S&P cash speak, 1040/1020.

A clear break below this zone would indicate that a MAJOR sell-off is coming sooner rather than later, down to the mid-800s. It also seems to me that as part of this move, we are building up the pressure for a huge one/two day move where global stocks drop well over 5%, maybe up to 10%. This last 'call' is based on nothing more than my (ample!) gut-feel. But I know I am not alone in this regard. Let's see, but I am preparing for Flash Crash 2...sadly the excuses used to play down Flash Crash 1 have been exposed as bogus, so I wonder what the next set of excuses are - its been a while since we used the old 'rogue trader' excuse so my money is on that horse.'

a 10 trillion bail out will make a lot of bankers even richer,only question is

1 will they bail

2 how can we the people get some of that pie.

Can someone translate the above please - surely all those trillions in QE would mean inflation and, I hate to say, the yellow metal holders will be dying from multiple orgasms?

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the 850 prediction is as you say,the 10 trillion,could blow some really big bubbles and create an even bigger economic/socail dislocation down teh line.

maybe I am not sufficiently technically versed - but is this the S&P - down 15% potentially? how is that particularly scary?

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Can someone translate the above please - surely all those trillions in QE would mean inflation and, I hate to say, the yellow metal holders will be dying from multiple orgasms?

It just means everything is getting back to normal after all that overspending.

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I give little credence to most media tipsters like this, basically Soros and Buffet (actions rather than words) and that's it - ok Bolton, Bootle, a tincey wincey bit of credence to Hendry who is bright but a bit mad.

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Can someone translate the above please - surely all those trillions in QE would mean inflation and, I hate to say, the yellow metal holders will be dying from multiple orgasms?

Seems like a fair trade.

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i was agreeign with you that 850 on the S&P isn't scary,

Nuh uh.

850 is piss your pants time - this trader is short term, but she comes up with some compelling long term conundrums. Her chart from late last year - she gave more precision later on - set an upside of 1229. The lower trendline suggests 850 will be a major battle if it comes before year end ...

http://3.bp.blogspot...3_%24SPXall.png

(Sorry, I've messed with my settings and can't embed - somebody else, please.)

Edited by okaycuckoo

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its predicting a path to hyperinflation.

which goes like this.

problem: we have too little money....print some.

result: that worked abit but we are still short of money...print again..this time..more

result: that worked a bit too...its just we didnt print enough last time..print lots.

ad infinitum to the 50,000 dollar coffee.

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Zero hedge have a VERY patchy record...............remember CB only do inflation.

Mike

It always seems to be the "usual suspects" on HPC: Zero Hedge, Denninger, Mish, Meryn Webb, Roubini, wheeled out em masse and on-demand. How about someone provides critical analysis of all their predictions. We need a league table of some sort, as we use their quotes all the time.

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its predicting a path to hyperinflation.

which goes like this.

problem: we have too little money....print some.

result: that worked abit but we are still short of money...print again..this time..more

result: that worked a bit too...its just we didnt print enough last time..print lots.

ad infinitum to the 50,000 dollar coffee.

my favourite book that explains it all

link

I have now presented this history in its chronological order—the order of events: let me, in conclusion, sum it up, briefly, in its logical order,--the order of cause and effect.

And, first, in the economic department. From the early reluctant and careful issues of paper we saw, as an immediate result, improvement and activity in business. Then arose the clamor for more paper money. At first, new issues were made with great difficulty; but, the dyke once broken, the current of irredeemable currency poured through; and, the breach thus enlarging, this currency was soon swollen beyond control. It was urged on by speculators for a rise in values; by demagogues who persuaded the mob that a nation, by its simple fiat, could stamp real value to any amount upon valueless objects. As a natural consequence a great debtor class grew rapidly, and this class gave its influence to depreciate more and more the currency in which its debts were to be paid.[85]

The government now began, and continued by spasms to grind out still more paper; commerce was at first stimulated by the difference in exchange; but this cause soon ceased to operate, and commerce, having been stimulated unhealthfully, wasted away.

Manufactures at first received a great impulse; but, ere long, this overproduction and overstimulus proved as fatal to them as to commerce. From time to time there was a revival of hope caused by an apparent revival of business; but this revival of business was at last seen to be caused more and more by the desire of far-seeing and cunning men of affairs to exchange paper money for objects of permanent value. As to the people at large, the classes living on fixed incomes and small salaries felt the pressure first, as soon as the purchasing power of their fixed incomes was reduced. Soon the great class living on wages felt it even more sadly.

Prices of the necessities of life increased: merchants were obliged to increase them, not only to cover depreciation of their merchandise, but also to cover their risk of loss from fluctuation; and, while the prices of products thus rose, wages, which had at first gone up, under the general stimulus, lagged behind. Under the universal doubt and discouragement, commerce and manufactures were checked or destroyed. As a consequence the demand for labor was diminished; laboring men were thrown out of employment, and, under the operation of the simplest law of supply and demand, the price of labor—the daily wages of the laboring class—went down until, at a time when prices of food, clothing and various articles of consumption were enormous, wages were nearly as low as at the time preceding the first issue of irredeemable currency.

The mercantile classes at first thought themselves exempt from the general misfortune. They were delighted at the apparent advance in the value of the goods upon their shelves. But they soon found that, as they increased prices to cover the inflation of currency and the risk from fluctuation and uncertainty, purchases became less in amount and payments less sure; a feeling of insecurity spread throughout the country; enterprise was deadened and stagnation followed.

New issues of paper were then clamored for as more drams are demanded by a drunkard. New issues only increased the evil; capitalists were all the more reluctant to embark their money on such a sea of doubt. Workmen of all sorts were more and more thrown out of employment. Issue after issue of currency came; but no relief resulted save a momentary stimulus, which aggravated the disease. The most ingenious evasions of natural laws in finance which the most subtle theorists could contrive were tried—all in vain; the most brilliant substitutes for those laws were tried; “self-regulating” schemes, “interconverting” schemes—all equally vain.[86] All thoughtful men had lost confidence. All men were waiting; stagnation became worse and worse. At last came the collapse and then a return, by a fearful shock, to a state of things which presented something like certainty of remuneration to capital and labor. Then, and not till then, came the beginning of a new era of prosperity.

Just as dependent on the law of cause and effect was the moral development. Out of the inflation of prices grew a speculating class; and, in the complete uncertainty as to the future, all business became a game of chance, and all business men, gamblers. In city centers came a quick growth of stock-jobbers and speculators; and these set a debasing fashion in business which spread to the remotest parts of the country. Instead of satisfaction with legitimate profits, came a passion for inordinate gains. Then, too, as values became more and more uncertain, there was no longer any motive for care or economy, but every motive for immediate expenditure and present enjoyment. So came upon the nation the obliteration of thrift. In this mania for yielding to present enjoyment rather than providing for future comfort were the seeds of new growths of wretchedness: luxury, senseless and extravagant, set in: this, too, spread as a fashion. To feed it, there came cheatery in the nation at large and corruption among officials and persons holding trusts. While men set such fashions in private and official business, women set fashions of extravagance in dress and living that added to the incentives to corruption. Faith in moral considerations, or even in good impulses, yielded to general distrust. National honor was thought a fiction cherished only by hypocrites. Patriotism was eaten out by cynicism.

Thus was the history of France logically developed in obedience to natural laws; such has, to a greater or less degree, always been the result of irredeemable paper, created according to the whim or interest of legislative assemblies rather than based upon standards of value permanent in their nature and agreed upon throughout the entire world. Such, we may fairly expect, will always be the result of them until the fiat of the Almighty shall evolve laws in the universe radically different from those which at present obtain.[87]

And, finally, as to the general development of the theory and practice which all this history records: my subject has been Fiat Money in France; How it came; What it brought; and How it ended.

It came by seeking a remedy for a comparatively small evil in an evil infinitely more dangerous. To cure a disease temporary in its character, a corrosive poison was administered, which ate out the vitals of French prosperity.

It progressed according to a law in social physics which we may call the “_law of accelerating issue and depreciation._” It was comparatively easy to refrain from the first issue; it was exceedingly difficult to refrain from the second; to refrain from the third and those following was practically impossible.

It brought, as we have seen, commerce and manufactures, the mercantile interest, the agricultural interest, to ruin. It brought on these the same destruction which would come to a Hollander opening the dykes of the sea to irrigate his garden in a dry summer.

It ended in the complete financial, moral and political prostration of France

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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