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AvidFan

Rbs Was All Bearish

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http://www.cnbc.com/id/37505133/

Ties in nicely with the G20 communique... no growth, debt doesn't cure the problem - it is the problem.

6 months of private sector deflation coming... then perhaps the $10-15 trillion QE programme ! :o:o

Looks like its a depression...

Edited by AvidFan

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I think its mistaken to believe that the G20 will throw more money at this when all thats needed is some vital transparency and deleveraging.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37505133/

Ties in nicely with the G20 communique... no growth, debt doesn't cure the problem - it is the problem.

6 months of private sector deflation coming... then perhaps the $10-15 trillion QE programme ! :o:o

Looks like its a depression...

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RBS just figured this out have they after there huge taxpayer bailout which was of course funded by more debt?

When you slam on your brakes to avoid running over some 13-year-old scrote and sound your horn, they usually react to your saving their life by mooning you. That's the kind of psychology going on here..

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http://www.cnbc.com/id/37505133/

Ties in nicely with the G20 communique... no growth, debt doesn't cure the problem - it is the problem.

6 months of private sector deflation coming... then perhaps the $10-15 trillion QE programme ! :o:o

Looks like its a depression...

Although.........this was from his note last September ('09), nearly a year ago in fact.

I do however think that we are VERY MUCH in the tail end of the correction of the Oct 07 to Mar 09 bear move, where S&P lost nearly 60% from peak to trough, and where the correction from the Mar low would, at 1120, represent the 50% retrace. Once what I assume is a bear mrkt correction finishes, over the next month or so, I expect the Bear to return with vengeance and I retain my call for NEW LOWS in equities. That's 550 S&P!!

Wow. 550 on the S&P. Eat your heart out Albert Edwards. Bob continues:

The crossroads is only weeks away, and visibility is poor, thus it is extremely difficult to make big calls at this time, esp. when the call is against the growing weight of opinion. Something extra-ordinary MAY be happening and, joking aside, even if its not, precise timing is always difficult. But based on everything I know and see I would be using any further risk asset rallies over the next month or so as an oppose to sell risk/raise cash/get short, and to flip out of high beta risk low quality risk, into low beta high quality risk.

http://ftalphaville....3181/bobs-back/

Alternatively it will be end May/early June

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/?p=240711

Unless that doesn't happen in which case it will definately be a bullish June then an apocalyptic July

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/?p=245526

Unless, perhaps it isn't that either.

Edited by Red Karma

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I think its a mistake to believe that the G20 will throw more money at this when all that's needed is some vital transparency and deleveraging.

Somewhere ein that 17 minutes, he reckons it will be the US that does it. Not the G20. And it'll be $5 trillion. Coming to a democracy across the Atlantic in the next 6 months...

Did you hear his 3-5 year growth targets for the majors?

China 5%

Eurozone 0%

UK 1%

US a little over 1%

:o

He mentions that the private sector "gets it" at the end and WANTS the depression to clear the balance sheet. They want to be cash rich and safe - they don't want the debt to keep growing.

Maybe we're seeing the catch-22 now - companies and individuals paying down debt, causing a cash shortage and downturn that central banks will do what they can to stop.

Edited by AvidFan

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RBS just figured this out have they after there huge taxpayer bailout which was of course funded by more debt?

Haven't you caught onto the new 'debt is wealth paradigm'? Solves all problems and cures deflation....... :lol:

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Looks like its hyperinflation!

Disagree, don't see much hyperinflation in Japan. The deflation and deleveraging process will take years to work through.

I know a lot of HPCers are gold bugs/inflation hawks but just look at money velocity figures, even with all this QE nonsense.

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  • 152 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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