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Bulk Of Economists Now Say Euro Will Be Gone

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/7806064/Euro-will-be-dead-in-five-years.html

Euro 'will be dead in five years'

The euro will have broken up before the end of this Parliamentary term, according to the bulk of economists taking part in a wide-ranging economic survey for The Sunday Telegraph.
By Edmund"Ed" Conway
Published: 10:23PM BST 05 Jun 2010
The survey's findings underline suspicions that the new Chancellor, George Osborne, will have to firefight a full-blown crisis in Britain's biggest trading partner in his first years in office
The single currency is in its death throes and may not survive in its current membership for a week, let alone the next five years, according to a selection of responses to the survey – the first major wide-ranging litmus test of economic opinion in the City since the election. The findings underline suspicions that the new Chancellor, George Osborne, will have to firefight a full-blown crisis in Britain's biggest trading partner in his first years in office.
Of the 25 leading City economists who took part in the Telegraph survey, 12 predicted that the euro would not survive in its current form this Parliamentary term, compared with eight who suspected it would. Five declared themselves undecided.
The finding is only one of a number of remarkable conclusions, including that:
..../
Four of the economists said that despite the wider suspicion that Greece or some of the weaker economies may be forced out of the currency, the most likely country to leave would be Germany.

I doubt it will survive this coming winter.

It was inevitable IMO. As long as the illusion of prosperity was there, based on global HPI and easy credit, everyone was happy. But as soon as the economy tanks everyone is for themselves or wanting their EU "brothers and sisters" to bail them out.

History demonstrates Europe does not work that way. Learn from it pro-EU idealists.

As I have been saying for some time its not the economy that holds Europe together or blows it apart--its the very nature of Europe itself as the article below suggests:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/7805759/Leading-economists-tell-us-what-the-future-holds.html

Those who predicted that the euro would survive said this was based more on political than economic considerations. Not promising in the slightest for those (including the Liberal Democrats) who have always supported the plan for a single European currency.

The survey was carried out over the past week. The full responses will be posted online at telegraph.co.uk on Monday.

The economists who responded:

Alan Clarke BNP Paribas

Andrew Lilico Policy Exchange

Howard Archer IHS Global Insight

Douglas McWilliams CEBR

Ross Walker RBS

George Magnus UBS Gerard Lyons Standard Chartered

Martin Gahbauer Nationwide

Simon Hayes Barclays Capital

Neil Mellor BNY Mellon Stephen Lewis Monument Securities

David Blanchflower Dartmouth College

George Buckley Deutsche Bank

Malcolm Barr JP Morgan

Ian Harwood Evolution Securities

Simon Ward Henderson Global Investors

David Owen Jefferies

Philip Shaw Investec

Stuart Green HSBC

Vicky Redwood Capital Economics

Peter Spencer Ernst & Young Item Club

Tim Congdon International Monetary Research

Peter Warburton Economic Perspectives

Jamie Dannhauser Lombard Street Research

Azad Zangana Schroders Investment Management

Edited by Realistbear

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[The single currency is in its death throesOf the 25 leading City economists who took part in the Telegraph survey, 12 predicted that the euro would not survive in its current form this Parliamentary term, compared with eight who suspected it would. Five declared themselves undecided. The finding is only one of a number of remarkable conclusions, including that:

Four of the economists said that despite the wider suspicion that Greece or some of the weaker economies may be forced out of the currency, the most likely country to leave would be Germany.

[/indent]

I doubt it will survive this coming winter.

It was inevitable IMO. As long as the illusion of prosperity was there, based on global HPI and easy credit, everyone was happy. But as soon as the economy tanks everyone is for themselves or wanting their EU "brothers and sisters" to bail them out.

History demonstrates Europe does not work that way. Learn from it pro-EU idealists.

As I have been saying for some time its not the economy that holds Europe together or blows it apart--its the very nature of Europe itself as the article below suggests:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/7805759/Leading-economists-tell-us-what-the-future-holds.html

Those who predicted that the euro would survive said this was based more on political than economic considerations. Not promising in the slightest for those (including the Liberal Democrats) who have always supported the plan for a single European currency.)

Well, it will be a release from a system which does not work! Countries of such different economic wealth and needs cannot have one IR and one currency which does not devalue or appreciate as needs be. (Smug face) I knew the Euro would run into trouble one day and was always against it. I remember Italian friends asking why we had not joined. I told them. They disgreed and disbelieved. Now they want their Lire back and see exactly what I meant. The sooner the Euro goes and currencies sort themselves out, the sooner a real recovery can take place after 2nd leg down. Here in the Uk we only ever voted to be part of a free trade zone and most people only want that and not a Eurostate of creeping law from Brussels. The EU argument will be back when the recovery is finally in progress.

Edited by plummet expert

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Guest KingCharles1st

If Germany as a nation feels strongly enough about it to leave- would this suddenly make them "independent." I.e. would they go sort of protectionist as regard to trade barriers and labour markets etc- and therefore stop paying into all the slush funds too etc etc.

Food for thought- would it just be the Euro that would collapse?

Edited by KingCharles1st

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so they all go back to their own currencies....the debt remains.

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I notice the fact that 12 / 25 economists predicted that the Euro would not survive it it's present form was spun into 'dead witihin 5 years.'

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I notice the fact that 12 / 25 economists predicted that the Euro would not survive it it's present form was spun into 'dead witihin 5 years.'

Im going to eat shit....8 billion flies cant be wrong.

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These must be the same economists that didn't see the tech bubble or the housing bubble. They were probably too busy laughing at Peter Schiff on Bloomberg.

Indeed. I am suprised the 'bulk' of economists have the front to even show their faces considering the sterling job they

did in predicting the demise of the mother of all bubbles. I guess a b*llsh*tter just has to do what he knows best.

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These must be the same economists that didn't see the tech bubble or the housing bubble. They were probably too busy laughing at Peter Schiff on Bloomberg.

Exactly. Research departments in banks are fundamentally flawed.

The ratings system is ridiculous.

They never saw those events coming as you say.

They were found to be corrupt as f**k about 5-10 years ago thanks to soft dollar relationships.

No rich guy worth his salt actually trusts a single research department as a basis for his investment decisions.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/7806064/Euro-will-be-dead-in-five-years.html

Euro 'will be dead in five years'

The euro will have broken up before the end of this Parliamentary term, according to the bulk of economists taking part in a wide-ranging economic survey for The Sunday Telegraph.
By Edmund"Ed" Conway
Published: 10:23PM BST 05 Jun 2010
The survey's findings underline suspicions that the new Chancellor, George Osborne, will have to firefight a full-blown crisis in Britain's biggest trading partner in his first years in office
The single currency is in its death throes and may not survive in its current membership for a week, let alone the next five years, according to a selection of responses to the survey – the first major wide-ranging litmus test of economic opinion in the City since the election. The findings underline suspicions that the new Chancellor, George Osborne, will have to firefight a full-blown crisis in Britain's biggest trading partner in his first years in office.
Why do you bother with Loo roll like this, mainstream media opinionated tosh driven by sentiment (warning will Robinson imminent reversal coming).
These were probably the same fckwits calling the death of the dollar 6 months ago. I hope you dont base your investment decisions on this type of shoeshine boy rubbish.
Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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The subject of the Euro was part of the first year of my degree course.

Had to write a dissertation on the merits or otherwise for a single currency. I could see the merits but they were vastly outweighed by the negatives. I actually said it would lead to war or at the very minimum civil unrest, prof thought I was over dramatising events this was back in 1992...........................Wonder if he still thinks I was over dramatising events.

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If Germany as a nation feels strongly enough about it to leave- would this suddenly make them "independent." I.e. would they go sort of protectionist as regard to trade barriers and labour markets etc- and therefore stop paying into all the slush funds too etc etc.

Food for thought- would it just be the Euro that would collapse?

Who says the germans don't want to leave?

Just cus the government says one thing does not mean the population want this.

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The subject of the Euro was part of the first year of my degree course.

Had to write a dissertation on the merits or otherwise for a single currency. I could see the merits but they were vastly outweighed by the negatives. I actually said it would lead to war or at the very minimum civil unrest, prof thought I was over dramatising events this was back in 1992...........................Wonder if he still thinks I was over dramatising events.

Why don't you write back to him the university alumini should have his details.

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The subject of the Euro was part of the first year of my degree course.

Had to write a dissertation on the merits or otherwise for a single currency. I could see the merits but they were vastly outweighed by the negatives. I actually said it would lead to war or at the very minimum civil unrest, prof thought I was over dramatising events this was back in 1992...........................Wonder if he still thinks I was over dramatising events.

I was looking at this in 99, my view was that the first 20 years where critical especially how it handled it's first recession.

However if it can survive this test it will survive anything, problem is too many fudges have been made and I don't think the public will be happy to see there taxes paying for liars despite what the Eurocrats think.

I think you are correct with the war or at least civil unrest, to be honest the civil unrest has already started in Greece.

Peter Warburton of consultancy Economic Perspectives said: "Possibly Germany will leave. Possibly other central and eastern European countries – plus Denmark – will have joined. Possibly, there will be a multi-tier membership of the EU and a mechanism for entering and leaving the single currency. I think the project will survive, but not in its current form."

Got to love this comment, talk about trying to hedge your bets.

As previously noted a single interest rate was never going to work across the whole Eurozone, the economies at the time of the Euro creation where not in sync and realistically there where far too many regional disparities.

The Euro first should have been created as a reserve currency with a gradual adoption of those nations how met the criteria. Although to be honest the 3% deficit spending rule was utter garbage it should have been a balance budget was only acceptable.

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So a minority (12 / 25) of economists say the Euro will not survive in it's present form becomes "Bulk of economists now say Euro will be gone"? :blink::lol:

Spinning like a top from the Torygraph and RB. <_<

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I notice the fact that 12 / 25 economists predicted that the Euro would not survive it it's present form was spun into 'dead witihin 5 years.'

Indeed. It would seem some people are very susceptible to propaganda.

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Guest absolutezero

I notice the fact that 12 / 25 economists predicted that the Euro would not survive it it's present form was spun into 'dead witihin 5 years.'

You mean like RB did with the 'US dollar to replace the Euro' thread?

You know, the one where it was passed off as fact but the article mentioned no such thing.

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Why do you bother with Loo roll like this, mainstream media opinionated tosh driven by sentiment (warning will Robinson imminent reversal coming).

These were probably the same fckwits calling the death of the dollar 6 months ago. I hope you dont base your investment decisions on this type of shoeshine boy rubbish.

I get the feeling that all these people have to dramatise things to get themselves noticed - ever heard anybody quoted who said that nothing much is going to change in the next twelve months? Thought not.

As (I believe) Paul Samuelson said: these are the people who forecast five of the last three recessions.

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so they all go back to their own currencies....the debt remains.

They're sure to think of a new toxic asset bank to transfer all the debt to so they can pretend it's been dealt with. Only, wait....the lenders can't be paid! But the Euro banks are the Lenders along with China etc. The web of lending will soon blow up in my view.

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I stopped reading at the word 'economist'.

They're the witch doctors for our time.

Burn them!

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If Germany as a nation feels strongly enough about it to leave- would this suddenly make them "independent." I.e. would they go sort of protectionist as regard to trade barriers and labour markets etc- and therefore stop paying into all the slush funds too etc etc.

Food for thought- would it just be the Euro that would collapse?

There's no reason to suppose that the EU would fall apart too. Germany is an exporting/trading nation that still has a geopolitical need to be tied in to the rest of Europe, why would they want barriers?

They might well continue to share a currency with similar economies (such as NL). The Maastricht vision as stated was always valid; the problem is that its most fundamental premise (permanent economic convergence with Germany) was not satisfied across a swathe of the Eurozone.

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So, 25 out of 12 economists dont think the Euro will last for 5 years.

How about 5 days?

Things are pretty bad, thats for sure. The Austrian banks look to have blown up. Are the ECB going to bail them out as well? Wont that make the Irish go to the ECB and ask for the same treatment for their banks, and France and Germany.

I have heard that some Chinese exporters are refusing to be paid in Euros. East of France, there is huge public demand for gold, everyone wants out of the Euro.

When a bank loses the confidence of its customers, it is game over. All that is in question is how long it will take for customers to withdraw what money there is left, then it is bankruptcy. This though, isnt just a case of a nation becoming insolvent, but an entire currency area!

Events will no doubt move swiftly from here. Just dont have any money in Euros. I would give a lot of credibility to those rumours that they were going to be printing Deutchsmarks again. By the end of the week they will be sorely needed.

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The subject of the Euro was part of the first year of my degree course.

Had to write a dissertation on the merits or otherwise for a single currency. I could see the merits but they were vastly outweighed by the negatives. I actually said it would lead to war or at the very minimum civil unrest, prof thought I was over dramatising events this was back in 1992...........................Wonder if he still thinks I was over dramatising events.

Yes.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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