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Spin Bowler

Chelmsford Area

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Hello,

I am looking into buying property in the Chelmsford/Ingatestone area of Essex. The wife and I are looking at 2/3 bed houses andbungalows.

We are researching the market and wondered if anyone had anything to share concerning their impressions of market conditions in Essex. Perhapos someone local to the area. We currently live in rented accomodation and so we are not in any hurry to buy.

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Hi,

I currently live not far from Chelmsford and when I (eventually) buy it will be in this area. Or more precislely one of the surrounding villages.

I've been monitoring the Chelmsford market since January this year. I monitor stock levels in the chelmsford area only properties £80K+.

The graph below shows properties on the market for the last 12 weeks. Week 12 on the graph is last week to Saturday. The graph is plotted using an average weekly figure.

chelmsfordnew.jpg

As you can see from the graph stock on the market has increased 24% over the last 3 months. This means that there are currently more sellers than buyers as stock is still increasing. A new high is reached almost everyday. This is putting downward pressure on prices.

In a search for chelmsford +10miles properties added in the last 24hr, between 20% and 30% are price reductions. (Today was 26%)

The removal of HIPS and CGT announcement has so far had no impact on the stock levels in Chelmsford, This was announced around week 11 on the graph so if anything stock increases slowed during in this time. It will be interesting to see if more detail in budget on the exact date of implementation and amount of CGT have an effect.

I don't believe the South East of England will be immune from price falls this area will always be more expensive than other northern areas due to proximity of higher paid London jobs but I do think it will fall proportionatly with the rest of the country. The only area that may not fall as hard would be central London prime properties.

This information is confirmed throughout other areas of Essex from other HPCers. Damien Frach I believe has interests in the Harlow area and monitors several Essex towns and draws similar conclusions to me.

Stay renting save as much as you can and wait it out. In my opinion the most optimistic outlook for the housing market as a whole including the south east would be flat for several years. You are not going to miss the boat by waiting, most likely the boat is going to sink. :)

Ps if you haven't already, download propertybee. It shows you price histories and time on the market for properties using rightmove.

Edited by Pent Up FTBer

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Wow,

Thanks for that info Pent Up. Thats real quality info, hopefully that trend will continue.

I already have property bee, I'd picked it up from reading the site before.

I'm beginning to come round to your view, that the "worst" that can happen (from my perspective) is a flat market and there may well be a fall.

It seems like "wait and see" is the prudent option, now I've just got to convince the wife !

Thanks again for sharing that info. I might start keeping such stats for my searches too (currently Chelmsford +5 and Harlow +10). If Damien pokes his head in here...... what are your views, if you are keeping an eye on similar areas ?

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Wow,

Thanks for that info Pent Up. Thats real quality info, hopefully that trend will continue.

I already have property bee, I'd picked it up from reading the site before.

I'm beginning to come round to your view, that the "worst" that can happen (from my perspective) is a flat market and there may well be a fall.

It seems like "wait and see" is the prudent option, now I've just got to convince the wife !

Thanks again for sharing that info. I might start keeping such stats for my searches too (currently Chelmsford +5 and Harlow +10). If Damien pokes his head in here...... what are your views, if you are keeping an eye on similar areas ?

If your doing Chelmsford +5 and Harlow +10 you'll find that your search will result in 1000+ you would be better searching several small towns 'this area only' and add them up.

I'll post updates to my chart regularly on this thread.

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Update: 28/06/2010

propertyonmarket270610.jpg

sellers are still outstripping buyers as the line is still rising. A falling line would indicate more demand than supply.

As you can see the rate of stock increase slowed to week 15, which was the week of the emergency budget. After this it has began making new highs once again as sellers return to putting properties on the market.

The last three days of data all made new all time highs for my search.

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Hi, I have been following the market around Chelmsford/Dunmow/S Walden for a few months now via Property Bee. I thought I'd share my observations.

I have seen properties £500k-£700k tend to drop £50k quite quickly (2-4 weeks) - I am guessing they had no interest at all at the original price. One or two have dropped more in one go but were clearly way over-priced compared to the competition.

I am also seeing more and more examples of properties that have been SSTC twice or more, coming back on the market and eventually dropping in price. That to me is the clearest indicator of a bit of a bloodbath in prices at the top end in Essex. After all, if a property has been SSTC more than once at a certain price, it's reasonable to believe that was its market value. So clearly the market has changed in the meantime. This house and this house are good examples.

Another anecdotal - of the 8 quality houses SSTC I have followed closely, the last one fell through and went back on the market this week. And that one I was sure would actually complete. So it appears that of the few houses going SSTC, very little is actually completing right now in this price bracket.

To summarise, I am seeing a massive increase in supply, few completions, lots of sellers' time wasted, 10% cuts on asking prices after a few weeks and evidence of sellers chasing the market down. :)

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Hi, I have been following the market around Chelmsford/Dunmow/S Walden for a few months now via Property Bee. I thought I'd share my observations.

I have seen properties £500k-£700k tend to drop £50k quite quickly (2-4 weeks) - I am guessing they had no interest at all at the original price. One or two have dropped more in one go but were clearly way over-priced compared to the competition.

I am also seeing more and more examples of properties that have been SSTC twice or more, coming back on the market and eventually dropping in price. That to me is the clearest indicator of a bit of a bloodbath in prices at the top end in Essex. After all, if a property has been SSTC more than once at a certain price, it's reasonable to believe that was its market value. So clearly the market has changed in the meantime. This house and this house are good examples.

Another anecdotal - of the 8 quality houses SSTC I have followed closely, the last one fell through and went back on the market this week. And that one I was sure would actually complete. So it appears that of the few houses going SSTC, very little is actually completing right now in this price bracket.

To summarise, I am seeing a massive increase in supply, few completions, lots of sellers' time wasted, 10% cuts on asking prices after a few weeks and evidence of sellers chasing the market down. :)

That pretty much tallies up with what I'm seeing. Seems as though very little is selling at the moment.

Edited by Pent Up

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Update 03/07/10

030710.png

The first graph went 1000+ on this date so I can now only use the smaller data range.

Iv'e started new searches for Saffron Walden, Billericay, Brentwood, Braintree, Writtle, Shenfield. I'm then adding the figures up to get a general figure for Essex.

To be honest though after such a surge of stock over the last 4 months I can't really see stock increasing much more, It'll be interesting to see what happens though.

Edited by Pent Up

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  • 152 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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