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torko

Odpm Website Updated 24/8/2005

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Just put number of sales through excel and it looks great :)

Looking at historics Q2 normally see the biggest increase in sales, q3 is sometimes busier, but never by a large amount. However in 2005 sales increases in Q1 havent been as big as in previous years... The red arrows on the graph mark all the Q2 dates, the difference between this Q2 and previous Q2s is stark. However it should be noted in the past when we have had bad Q2 data, 2003 Q3 and Q4 have been boosted.

The graphs also show how sales in wales have continued in 2004 as sales in the uk declined...

Finally as Q2 2005 is marked as provisional i would this data may be incomplete and actual sales may be higher (or lower)..

Sales.JPG

post-552-1124976715_thumb.jpg

Edited by moosetea

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Ignore everything else..... Sales down 42.2% YOY

Too true, the most important figure.

In any other game, a 42% drop in unit sales would send the price crashing in weeks - I guess we just have to wait that bit longer with housing. I hope so anyways.

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Quick analysis on London (sorry, that's where I live so that's my focus)

Even taking out seasonal effects (i.e. comparing q1 to q1 etc rather than just progressive) volume of sales is massively down.

However this not reflected in average sales prices - they are still blindly bumbling up. So no good headlines yet, and people can say prices are still going up up and awaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay!

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Median prices for england are interesting, peak of 159k in q2 2004, q4 2004 157, q1 and q2 is 155. Looks like the fabled stabalising of prices at the peak, and lines up with annocdatle evidence from this site and from what i have seen locally... Median prices in england have fallen 3 quarters in a row, something that hasnt happened in this entire data set since 1996....

median.JPG

post-552-1124980070_thumb.jpg

Edited by moosetea

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Too true, the most important figure.

In any other game, a 42% drop in unit sales would send the price crashing in weeks - I guess we just have to wait that bit longer with housing. I hope so anyways.

So then..... mortgage approvals down 6% YOY, house sales down 42%.

You've got to be so careful which figures you choose to report.........

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Guest Riser
So then..... mortgage approvals down 6% YOY, house sales down 42%.

You've got to be so careful which figures you choose to report.........

I would imagine a significant proportion of motgage approvals fail to go to completion due to the higher number of chains that are collapsing in the current market. People are reporting 30 - 50 % of chains failing with some sellers having two or even three sales falling through, each one will have needed a mortgage approval.

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Guest Riser
Median prices for england are interesting, peak of 159k in q2 2004, q4 2004 157, q1 and q2 is 155.  Looks like the fabled stabalising of prices at the peak, and lines up with annocdatle evidence from this site and from what i have seen locally... Median prices in england have fallen 3 quarters in a row, something that hasnt happened in this entire data set since 1996....

To me the most significant thing about the chart is the pattern of the first three quarters of each year providing the biggest gains while the final quarter is usually flat to slow. This year prices have actually fallen in what has traditionally been the best time of the year.

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But London is at an all time high!!!

Prices yes, volume dropping to an all time low, suggesting those that are buying are those tha HAVE to buy. It points to crashville, but then many signs have over the last 2 years.

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Prices yes, volume dropping to an all time low, suggesting those that are buying are those tha HAVE to buy. It points to crashville, but then many signs have over the last 2 years.

Yes, overall .... Although not all parts of london.... Median Prices again... Although country, prices tend to follow london...

London.JPG

post-552-1124985022_thumb.jpg

Edited by moosetea

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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