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neon tetra

Telling It Like It Is

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Thought I would reproduce an excellent comment, quoting an Estate agent:

An estate agent I know in Swansea was only telling me this week that he was expecting a crash in prices by the end of the year.

He said that there was a flood of properties now coming on the market and only a handful of buyers out there, but even less buyers who could afford the ludicrous asking prices.

He said that so many sellers had remortgaged over the past decade to buy cars, boats and holidays that they were hoping someone gullible would come along and 'take on their debt' by buying a house for their full asking price. He said that if most of these people sold their house for a realistic price they would still be many tens of thousands in debt having spent it all on the high life.

So he said that sellers were demanding that he market their houses well above what they were worth but he had to do so otherwise the sellers would go to one of his competitors and he would have no business.

Madness.

No wonder economists say British houses are vastly over-priced!

My own anecdotal data:

Properties on the market (my postcode + 5 miles)20/05/10  77225/05/10  79830/05/10  81303/05/10  83604/05/10  840

So the supply is up by almost 10% over the past two weeks. This is net of any that have sold. It looks like 93 have come onto the market, and 25 have gone STC.

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Thought I would reproduce an excellent comment, quoting an Estate agent:

My own anecdotal data:

Properties on the market (my postcode + 5 miles)20/05/10  77225/05/10  79830/05/10  81303/05/10  83604/05/10  840

So the supply is up by almost 10% over the past two weeks. This is net of any that have sold. It looks like 93 have come onto the market, and 25 have gone STC.

Not sure about those figures, the highest number of properties was a month ago.

As for markets, they always work. If people have to sell, a large supply means falling prices.

Except it doesnt. Those people forced to sell have to live somewhere. And if they cant afford anywhere, Mr Taxman will come in and buy somewhere for them.

No way a market can crash under those conditions. Only when the taxman runs out of other people's money, or decides to let people who cant afford it go homeless, will there be a proper crash.

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Not sure about those figures, the highest number of properties was a month ago.

As for markets, they always work. If people have to sell, a large supply means falling prices.

Except it doesnt. Those people forced to sell have to live somewhere. And if they cant afford anywhere, Mr Taxman will come in and buy somewhere for them.

No way a market can crash under those conditions. Only when the taxman runs out of other people's money, or decides to let people who cant afford it go homeless, will there be a proper crash.

NO! Confidence in a market is essential for it keep going. As soon as ther are not enough buyers for the sellers, the sellers will start to compete on price. For some the ensuing fall becomes a negative equity trap. If IR rises come into play and people who borrowed things like 5 and 6 x their income canot service it then you have an almighty crash, pulling others down. Once FTB's smell prices reducing they will stay away hoping for it fall further. Just because people have to live somewhere will not prevent a crash. They all 'lived somewhere' in the last crash. Some move back to parents or in with friends etc etc. Unemployment is sure to rise on the cuts to be made soon. It will all feed into the problem. The money markets are dithering on whether to pull the collective plugs and force IR's up.

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Not sure about those figures, the highest number of properties was a month ago.

As for markets, they always work. If people have to sell, a large supply means falling prices.

Except it doesnt. Those people forced to sell have to live somewhere. And if they cant afford anywhere, Mr Taxman will come in and buy somewhere for them.

No way a market can crash under those conditions. Only when the taxman runs out of other people's money, or decides to let people who cant afford it go homeless, will there be a proper crash.

stop being pedantic. The last two figures are yesterday and today.

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So 1 agent says the market is going to crash and burn, must be true then! :)

Er, why do you think the OP put this in Anecdotals ?

Y

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I cannot imagine why he did. Why he thought this was worthy of reporting is beyond me. I know a very experienced surveyer who thinks prices will rocket next year but I would not bother to start a thread on it, and actually who cares anyway it is just one person's opinion.

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I cannot imagine why he did. Why he thought this was worthy of reporting is beyond me. I know a very experienced surveyer who thinks prices will rocket next year but I would not bother to start a thread on it, and actually who cares anyway it is just one person's opinion.

I'll help you out then. He/she put it in an Anecdotals because it is anecdotal - the OP wasn't claiming that this was proof of anything. To be fair though, the quote did support the hypothesis with some reasons it might be true - extra properties on market, fewer buyers etc.

Perhaps you could give more details about your experienced surveyor's opinions and why he thinks house prices will rocket - it would be good to get all shades of opinion and, more importantly, what is behind them - eg rising wages, increasing credit availability, falling interest rates, more secure employment, low levels of unsecured and secured debt -the kind of thing which should make him/her right. I assume you did ask "Why?" when he gave you his opinion.

Y

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  • 152 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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