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Halifax -0.4-----Merged

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I always trusted the good old Halifax over that nasty nationwide.

More to follow....

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/research/2010/HousePriceIndexMay2010.pdf

Key facts

· House prices fell by 0.4% in May. This followed a 0.1% decline in April.

· House prices in May were 6.9% higher on an annual basis. This was the largest increase in the annual rate of change - measured by the average for the latest three months against the same period a year earlier – since October 2007 (8.9%). Despite May's monthly fall, the annual rate increased from 6.6% in April largely because price movements in March and April compared favourably with the significant declines recorded in the same period in 2009.

· Prices are 8.3% above their April 2009 trough despite the modest decline over the past two months. The average house price is now £167,570; 16% below its August 2007 peak.

· The low supply of properties for sale was a key factor pushing up house prices in 2009. The pickup in market conditions has encouraged more homeowners to attempt to sell their property. Estate agents have reported an increase in instructions from new vendors in ten of the past 11 months. (Source: RICS monthly survey, April 2010.) The recent suspension of Home Information Packs and uncertainty about changes to Capital Gains Tax may also be persuading more homeowners to put their properties on the market.

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http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

found this on the forex calendar

If true, it will be refreshing to see the stats confirm what is happening in the marketplace.

I have 3 friends in the Brighton area all trying to sell. One just came back on the market because her buyer's lender reset lending criteria and the other two have had zero interest other than some low-ball offers at more than 100k below asking. The market is sick, its dying and it is going to drop another 20% this year and more in 2011.

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If true, it will be refreshing to see the stats confirm what is happening in the marketplace.

I have 3 friends in the Brighton area all trying to sell. One just came back on the market because her buyer's lender reset lending criteria and the other two have had zero interest other than some low-ball offers at more than 100k below asking. The market is sick, its dying and it is going to drop another 20% this year and more in 2011.

You really thing 20% falls are achievable? I'm not so sure, giving the titchy falls since the biggest financial crash ever. I think 5% will be breakthrough given the obsession with property "at any price",in this country. Too much riding on ensuring that property remains a one way bet.

Edited by SirStirlingSlumlord

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Guest absolutezero

I always trusted the good old Halifax over that nasty nationwide.

More to follow....

Confirmation bias?

Also, I'd suggest anything less than 1 percent either way is statistically insignificant.

I'm hoping in future months we get more juicy figures.

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You really thing 20% falls are achievable? I'm not so sure, giving the titchy falls since the biggest financial crash ever. I think 5% will be breakthrough given the obsession with property "at any price",in this country. Too much riding on ensuring that property remains a one way bet.

It just takes time, the clock is ticking.

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Guest absolutezero

prices down 0.7% so far this year. Drops in three of the last four months

It's becoming a trend. Encouraging, but still not statistically significant.

Also, how many houses was the sample based on? Is that a large enough number to be reliable? Are the houses sufficiently different for the sample to be reliable?

All I'm saying is don't get excited about it just yet.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10235370.stm

Its latest monthly survey shows that prices fell by 0.4% in May, after a 0.1% drop in April, taking the average UK house price down to £167,570.

However, the survey found annual rate of house price inflation had accelerated, from 6.6% to 6.9%.

The Halifax explained that this was because prices were falling even faster in the spring of last year.

According to the BBC then, prices falling slower than they were falling last year marks an acceleration in HPI! :blink::P

Nationwide up, Halifax down actually suggests more like flat at the moment - though I suspect both will be going down as the year goes on.

Edited by scottbeard

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Well,well,well

Don't think this will get much attention today will it.

Nationwide fiqures are even starting to slow and given we are in the middle of the spring bounce.

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It's becoming a trend. Encouraging, but still not statistically significant.

Also, how many houses was the sample based on? Is that a large enough number to be reliable? Are the houses sufficiently different for the sample to be reliable?

All I'm saying is don't get excited about it just yet.

to be honest it's probably about as reliable as nationwide. Without knowing the sample sizes who knows. But at least it's good antedote to yesterdays nationwide figure.

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-fall-in-may-halifax-reuters_molt-0938ac79947b.html?x=0

House prices fall in May - Halifax
9:12, Friday 4 June 2010
LONDON (Reuters) - House prices fell by 0.4 percent in May following April's 0.1 percent decline, mortgage lender Halifax said on Friday.
That left prices 6.9 percent higher in the three months to May compared with a year ago and took the average price of a home to 167,570 pounds.
Analysts had forecast a rise of 0.2 percent on the month.
"The mixed pattern of monthly price rises and falls so far this year is consistent with a slowing market and is in line with our view that house prices will be flat during 2010 as a whole," said Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis.

The infamous "plateau" much bandied about by the big American property VI (cant remember his name now--but he quit the business after the crash) never happens. Prices rise and they fall and in periods of volatility, as we are in today, they do so violently--one way or the other. I don't think prices are headed up.

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest absolutezero

to be honest it's probably about as reliable as nationwide. Without knowing the sample sizes who knows. But at least it's good antedote to yesterdays nationwide figure.

Agreed.

I've thought since the availability of mortgages has been severely reduced that the "rise" in house prices isn't actually a rise and is a statistical anomaly caused by the cheapest (FTB) houses not selling and the larger, more expensive, older family houses selling.

In other words, "house prices" haven't been rising but the "price of houses that have been selling" has been rising.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10235370.stm

According to the BBC then, prices falling slower than they were falling last year marks an acceleration in HPI! :blink::P

Nationwide up, Halifax down actually suggests more like flat at the moment - though I suspect both will be going down as the year goes on.

There seems to be no joined up thinking about what they report and how they do it on the BBC. Yesterday was all up, up, up with the nationwide. Today it is down wih the Halifax, but nothing in today's report that links the 2, points out the confusing data or adds any insightful comment!!!!!

Mind you, expecting insightful comment on the housing market........what was I thinking??????????? For insightful comment you need to hear from Stuart Law, Ray Boulger and Melanie Bein! ;)

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I feel like that Capt on the Sub in "Ice Station Zerba", you know when the sub almost floods & they are fighting to get it to surface. Or "Das Boat" where they surface after having been almost sunk.

Mike

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If true, it will be refreshing to see the stats confirm what is happening in the marketplace.

I have 3 friends in the Brighton area all trying to sell. One just came back on the market because her buyer's lender reset lending criteria and the other two have had zero interest other than some low-ball offers at more than 100k below asking. The market is sick, its dying and it is going to drop another 20% this year and more in 2011.

THat is a big call out of the blue RB!

I might add it as a sig, and we can see how you have done by December! How are your other predictions doing?

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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