House Prices 'have Peaked....'

[deflation]

House prices 'have peaked and will fall for rest of year'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1283742/House-prices-peaked-fall-rest-year-HIPs-axe-encourages-flood-new-homes-market.html

...there has been a flood of homes on to the market since the Government announced it was suspending rules requiring sellers to buy a Home Information Pack.

At the same time, predictions of massive job losses in the public sector and increases in taxes later this year could driver buyers out of the market, leading to lower prices.

[Brave New World]

Reality filtering into the Daily Mail jeez.

And some interesting comments - or are they just HPC'ers!

[givemethegun]

You get a bit bored/weary of it all after a while so whilst reading these things is good

I don't feel anything other than just a stagnation in everything; and if the doom-mongering

were true it seems a high price to pay for a house!

[deflation]

I was just surprised that this was put on their website at 09:54 pm today. Almost like they're ahamed of it.

It's by Sean Poulter, who seems to just regurgitate VI press releases usually.

[peepers]

House prices 'have peaked and will fall for rest of year'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1283742/House-prices-peaked-fall-rest-year-HIPs-axe-encourages-flood-new-homes-market.html

...there has been a flood of homes on to the market since the Government announced it was suspending rules requiring sellers to buy a Home Information Pack.

At the same time, predictions of massive job losses in the public sector and increases in taxes later this year could driver buyers out of the market, leading to lower prices.

I've also heard that rental values are down (at least in the Luton & Dunstable areas)

I don't know if thats due to local factors or if it's a general trend but it could help to cause people to hold off buying whilst more property is coming on the market adding to the potential for oversupply I suppose

I used to live in Luton but then found a fantastic little gem of a village nearby with it's own quiet train station into London! - So the area is not all bad...

Edited June 3, 2010 by peepers

[kittingerjump]

I've also heard that rental values are down (at least in the Luton & Dunstable areas)

They have stayed the same for some time (Kingston). For Sale prices it's noticeable that these tend to drop quickly after the initial week or two.

Edited June 3, 2010 by kittingerjump

[dances with sheeple]

House prices have peaked for our lifetime folks, best just get used to it, or drink a toast to it, one of the two.

[Kazuya]

House prices have peaked for our lifetime folks, best just get used to it, or drink a toast to it, one of the two.

1) Sharp 3 year correction

2) Japan style 20 year correction

I wonder which will occur...22/06/10

Edited June 4, 2010 by Kazuya

[GordonBrownSpentMyFuture]

1) Sharp 3 year correction

2) Japan style 20 year correction

I wonder which will occur...22/06/10

I hope for (1).

I anticipate (2).

[Guest_James Toney_*]

I hope for (1).

I anticipate (2).

me too

[Bruce Banner]

I hope for (1).

I anticipate (2).

I anticipate (1) but am prepared for either, or a combination of the two.

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

1) Sharp 3 year correction

2) Japan style 20 year correction

I wonder which will occur...22/06/10

It's going to be (1) as (2) is impossible for the UK. The Japanese managed their situation due to be being able to borrow from themselves. We cannot do that - we have to pay the debt or default.

[guitarman001]

With all the gloom, I wonder why the FTSE is up... AGAIN!?!? Have got a short position on it but fools keep piling in :s

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

With all the gloom, I wonder why the FTSE is up... AGAIN!?!? Have got a short position on it but fools keep piling in :s

Why do you have a short position? Do you mind telling us the entry level and timing?

[Guest absolutezero]

1) Sharp 3 year correction

2) Japan style 20 year correction

I wonder which will occur...22/06/10

I've heard that date mentioned a few times.

What's happening on that day?

[Guest_James Toney_*]

I've heard that date mentioned a few times.

What's happening on that day?

think it is the emergency budget

they might say "look we are in the $h!t lets let houses crash, and sacl all public sector workers, and start again"

that or they might start printing more to keep house prives high

[Harre]

*yawn* *yawn* whatever. Same people who said the house prices were going to fall by 30% in 2009 and then stand there looking like snapper heads when the market bounces back instead. You were wrong then and you're wrong now.

[Lennon]

*yawn* *yawn* whatever. Same people who said the house prices were going to fall by 30% in 2009 and then stand there looking like snapper heads when the market bounces back instead. You were wrong then and you're wrong now.

Are you Sibley in disguise?

[guitarman001]

Why do you have a short position? Do you mind telling us the entry level and timing?

I've shorted because I believe the rebound in the FTSE since the 'meltdown' was full of hot air and that we're due a big correction. No WAY is the FTSE going to keep rising with the cuts about to come. Not sure on the timing of my exit position, but I expected to see small falls, not rises! Ridiculous - I obviously underestimate how positive an outlook many investors have.

[council dweller]

think it is the emergency budget

they might say "look we are in the $h!t lets let houses crash, and sacl all public sector workers, and start again"

that or they might start printing more to keep house prives high

I'll post a youtube video from last year with Taleb and Cameron. Taleb's talking about 'too big to fail' and you can almost see Cameron's cogs turning.

The housing market is the ultimate 'too big'. Maybe Cameron realises that failure is necessary though.

[Killer Bunny]

It's going to be (1) as (2) is impossible for the UK. The Japanese managed their situation due to be being able to borrow from themselves. We cannot do that - we have to pay the debt or default.

Sometimes, someone on this forum writes something that is noteworthy and requires critical analysis.

We are in deflationary times just now, so govt borrowing will continue - at a lower rate than before.

Public spending is cut. Repos will rise. So HPs will fall over 2-4 years.

However, after the deflation, the money printing (the inflationary forces) will reassert themselves and become stronger than the deflationary forces.

Thus, from 2014/15, we will see inexorably rising inflation for a decade (like the 60s through to the 70s). However, unemployment will be slow to fall. Credit will be slow to ease. HPs may rise but they will rise below RPI.

Thus 30 years of real HP growth has changed to 20-30 years of real HP falls.

Thus, 20 year depression.

[Guest absolutezero]

I'll post a youtube video from last year with Taleb and Cameron. Taleb's talking about 'too big to fail' and you can almost see Cameron's cogs turning.

The housing market is the ultimate 'too big'. Maybe Cameron realises that failure is necessary though.

Don't hold your breath.

[deflation]

I've shorted because I believe the rebound in the FTSE since the 'meltdown' was full of hot air and that we're due a big correction. No WAY is the FTSE going to keep rising with the cuts about to come. Not sure on the timing of my exit position, but I expected to see small falls, not rises! Ridiculous - I obviously underestimate how positive an outlook many investors have.

Why can't the FTSE rise during cuts? If there are big cuts in public spending, there will be more competition in the workforce. Private businesses will not have to compete with public-funded bodies. I'm sure there's more, but the FTSE listed companies, if efficient, can provide good return for investors, hence share price goes up.

Any firms who rely on public spending will be the ones who suffer.

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

I've shorted because I believe the rebound in the FTSE since the 'meltdown' was full of hot air and that we're due a big correction. No WAY is the FTSE going to keep rising with the cuts about to come. Not sure on the timing of my exit position, but I expected to see small falls, not rises! Ridiculous - I obviously underestimate how positive an outlook many investors have.

What triggered your trade? At what price and date did you go for it? What's your stop? Without wanting to get all in your face or sound patronising, you sound like you are new to this. I have also been dabbling and would advise you think carefully - I have made plenty of mistakes going on a feeling, rather than confirmed price action.

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

Why can't the FTSE rise during cuts? If there are big cuts in public spending, there will be more competition in the workforce. Private businesses will not have to compete with public-funded bodies. I'm sure there's more, but the FTSE listed companies, if efficient, can provide good return for investors, hence share price goes up.

Any firms who rely on public spending will be the ones who suffer.

or more importantly is the FTSE not allowed rallies anymore, everyday has to be negative for the next 100 years , cant have an up day or an up week or even an up month it has to fall straight