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FTSE up nearly 2% this morning. If this was reversed there would be a thread announcing it. Do you think this clouds peoples judgement and that people on here have biased sentiments rather than cold, logical & rational analysis?

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FTSE up nearly 2% this morning. If this was reversed there would be a thread announcing it. Do you think this clouds peoples judgement and that people on here have biased sentiments rather than cold, logical & rational analysis?

Yes - but that is true of all herds.

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FTSE up nearly 2% this morning. If this was reversed there would be a thread announcing it. Do you think this clouds peoples judgement and that people on here have biased sentiments rather than cold, logical & rational analysis?

Yes. This forum is saturated with examples of confirmation bias; a psychology masters student could use it as a case study. The problem with great certainty about one's hypothesis is that it tends to lead people to forget to try out alternative possible views on the current data and indeed even to ignore inconvenient data.

It would be good to have a profile classification not just as Bull or Bear but on a sliding scale of %. (I am a bear but quite moderately so, and I find the level of certainty expressed by some individuals on these boards about imminent house price apocalypse to be have more in common with the mindset of religious cults than with a cold-hearted rational view of possible futures.)

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Yes. This forum is saturated with examples of confirmation bias; a psychology masters student could use it as a case study. The problem with great certainty about one's hypothesis is that it tends to lead people to forget to try out alternative possible views on the current data and indeed even to ignore inconvenient data.

It would be good to have a profile classification not just as Bull or Bear but on a sliding scale of %. (I am a bear but quite moderately so, and I find the level of certainty expressed by some individuals on these boards about imminent house price apocalypse to be have more in common with the mindset of religious cults than with a cold-hearted rational view of possible futures.)

FTSE up, FTSE down.

means nothing to me in Sainburys.

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What's struck me about this forum is that the fact that everyone on here is united in their desire to see a HPC this does tend to promote a certain bias. There's a tendency to concentrate on negative data and over-interpret small signs of a change in the market as the long-awaited tipping point.

CG tax reforms, house information packs and the like are the early Easters, snow, leaves on the line etc. of the HPC world . I'm sure there will be a HPC but predicting when it will come is a mug's game. Personally I don't think it we'll see it before there's a substantial rise in the number of distressed sellers meaning that we're looking at least a year or two down the line - IMHO.

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Yes. This forum is saturated with examples of confirmation bias; a psychology masters student could use it as a case study. The problem with great certainty about one's hypothesis is that it tends to lead people to forget to try out alternative possible views on the current data and indeed even to ignore inconvenient data.

It would be good to have a profile classification not just as Bull or Bear but on a sliding scale of %. (I am a bear but quite moderately so, and I find the level of certainty expressed by some individuals on these boards about imminent house price apocalypse to be have more in common with the mindset of religious cults than with a cold-hearted rational view of possible futures.)

Yes yes we had all this in late 2007 when the confidence in posters on this site of the imminent mess that unfolded was at complete odds with the VI ramping/confirmation bias world we all live in.

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FTSE up, FTSE down.

means nothing to me in Sainburys.

+1

Who cares about the FTSE. Only a small percentage on here enter into banal endless threads about daily movements; don't get sucked into it!. It doesn't matter. And the comments above are way to sweeping to mean anything too.

I love generalisations me.

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Yes yes we had all this in late 2007 when the confidence in posters on this site of the imminent mess that unfolded was at complete odds with the VI ramping/confirmation bias world we all live in.

Not sure if I understand your point. Are you saying that you think I am wrong to believe that *extreme* confidence in one possible outcome of a complex system is something to be wary of?

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+1

Who cares about the FTSE. Only a small percentage on here enter into banal endless threads about daily movements; don't get sucked into it!. It doesn't matter. And the comments above are way to sweeping to mean anything too.

I love generalisations me.

But it isn't just the FTSE is it? There are other sentiment indicators that have improved and these are rarely mentioned. I just used the FTSE as an example as, I believe a significant number post about it. If non-farm payrolls improve tomorrow, it probably won't have a big thread (although it might now I've mentioned it).

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FTSE up nearly 2% this morning. If this was reversed there would be a thread announcing it. Do you think this clouds peoples judgement and that people on here have biased sentiments rather than cold, logical & rational analysis?

Cold examination of the FTSE since 2000 shows it is still a bear market

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^FTSE#chart1:symbol=^ftse;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

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Yes. This forum is saturated with examples of confirmation bias; a psychology masters student could use it as a case study.

no he couldn't, dickweed

christ almighty, the number of thickos who spout about 'why does this forum have such a downward bias'... it's called house price crash forum turdbrainers, not house price unbiased news forum

holy shit where do these plonkwads come from???

Edited by PropertyGuru

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FTSE up nearly 2% this morning. If this was reversed there would be a thread announcing it. Do you think this clouds peoples judgement and that people on here have biased sentiments rather than cold, logical & rational analysis?

Good gracious! Views are views. It is probably true that people who visit this forum geberally think house prices have gone above all sanity and credit should have ben regulated properly. What will happen next? Again, various views from 'apocalyse now to a 'very slow recovery or rebalancing', to 'nothing much is wrong' are all seen here. The range is more to the negative end because that is the topic for this website!!!!!

The bears could be wrong and growth will return sorting everything out on the way. Not my view, but it will be someones.

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Good gracious! Views are views. It is probably true that people who visit this forum geberally think house prices have gone above all sanity and credit should have ben regulated properly. What will happen next? Again, various views from 'apocalyse now to a 'very slow recovery or rebalancing', to 'nothing much is wrong' are all seen here. The range is more to the negative end because that is the topic for this website!!!!!

The bears could be wrong and growth will return sorting everything out on the way. Not my view, but it will be someones.

All you've done with this answer is just confirm my op. It should be impartial to be useful. I sometimes think the naming of this Website is unfortunate and obviously partly attracts bears because of this.

There are many other subforums on here that tend to be more impartial than this main forum.

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Good gracious! Views are views. It is probably true that people who visit this forum geberally think house prices have gone above all sanity and credit should have ben regulated properly. What will happen next? Again, various views from 'apocalyse now to a 'very slow recovery or rebalancing', to 'nothing much is wrong' are all seen here. The range is more to the negative end because that is the topic for this website!!!!!

The bears could be wrong and growth will return sorting everything out on the way. Not my view, but it will be someones.

I'm personally staying out of equities now for the rest of the year because I think the danger of a "black swan" event such as a bank collapse or sovereign default in Europe is too high. Also our economic fundamentals don't seem to support a FTSE much over about 5500 IMO so the upside is limited and the down side is potentially massive.

With regard to the pshychology of this forum there is well documented behaviour pattern where an isolated group of people tend to rienforce each others beliefs to the point where they lose touch with reality (I think they call them "political parties" B) ).

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But it isn't just the FTSE is it? There are other sentiment indicators that have improved and these are rarely mentioned. I just used the FTSE as an example as, I believe a significant number post about it. If non-farm payrolls improve tomorrow, it probably won't have a big thread (although it might now I've mentioned it).

I am just saying that a daily view - up or down - unless there is some spectacular movement (+/- 5%) on actual news really isn't worth following on a day to day basis unless you are a day trader. The endless threads about minute by minute FTSE movements are tedious.

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I'm personally staying out of equities now for the rest of the year because I think the danger of a "black swan" event such as a bank collapse or sovereign default in Europe is too high. Also our economic fundamentals don't seem to support a FTSE much over about 5500 IMO so the upside is limited and the down side is potentially massive.

With regard to the pshychology of this forum there is well documented behaviour pattern where an isolated group of people tend to rienforce each others beliefs to the point where they lose touch with reality (I think they call them "political parties" B) ).

we are definately isolated. chained here, as I am, to the keyboard...I cant move away as the lead to the charger is very dodgy, and I need to stay here to keep it plugged in.

I didnt go to France last week and Im not going in a fortnight either.

group comes first.

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no he couldn't, dickweed

christ almighty, the number of thickos who spout about 'why does this forum have such a downward bias'... it's called house price crash forum turdbrainers, not house price unbiased news forum

holy shit where do these plonkwads come from???

A charming post. There's no need to be offensive.

I find the majority of posters on these forums interesting, insightful and funny (you excluded). To be honest, the ones I tend to enjoy reading most are those who are pro-HPC bears whose views are arrived at by examining what's going on in the world. I also believe an HPC/correction would be a good thing for many people and the country. But I always find it hard to hold much respect for those who have a priori prejudices on which empirical observations have no bearing at all.

That said, I'm really talking about habits of mind here. I do agree with MB's comment that +/- 2% in itself is noise.

Edited by JamesLondon

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A charming post. There's no need to be offensive.

yes there is.

People like you need slapping down for the same reasons that if you were playing Monopoly, and some dickwad said "Hey... wouldn't it be GRRRREAT if all this money was REAL..." most right-minded individuals would load up with hollow points and take aim.

Having looked at your psuedie-intellectual posts, I'm sure everyone on here is aware how smart you think you are, and how pathetic your think the rest of us are.

So yes, offense mandatory for little shitkickers like you.

Don't bother replying (although of course you will - shitkickers ALWAYS have to get the last word), because we all already know what you 'think' (used in its widest sense of course).

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Guest Steve Cook

What is of most interest to me is less the direction of travel on any given day at the moment. It is more the distance of travel. There is huge volatility at the moment in the markets.

The question is why?

From what I have read of markets, such volatility is usually indicative of a major structural move being imminent. If that is true, then you have got to ask yourself, which direction do you think such a structural move will take.

North or South.

If I were a betting man, I know which outcome my money would go on.

Edited by Steve Cook

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I'm personally staying out of equities now for the rest of the year because I think the danger of a "black swan" event such as a bank collapse or sovereign default in Europe is too high.

Ah, but if you are thinking about it, and taking risk management steps around it, it isn't a black swan event ;)

There could be a discovery of the world's biggest oil field off the coast of Norfolk, doubling the FTSE overnight and returning the UK to the richest country in the world. "Black Swans" can be up as well as down!

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Guest Steve Cook

Ah, but if you are thinking about it, and taking risk management steps around it, it isn't a black swan event ;)

There could be a discovery of the world's biggest oil field off the coast of Norfolk, doubling the FTSE overnight and returning the UK to the richest country in the world. "Black Swans" can be up as well as down!

To be honest, I don't think there is anything black-swanish about what is coming down the pipe.

The stark, staringly obvious fact is that half the world is broke and will never be able to pay its debts off.

The only question left is what form the inevitable default will take. Will it take the form of a poverty of empty pockets or ones that bulge with pieces of worthless paper?

Edit to add:

I suppose it could always end in the black swan of war....

Edited by Steve Cook

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yes there is.

People like you need slapping down for the same reasons that if you were playing Monopoly, and some dickwad said "Hey... wouldn't it be GRRRREAT if all this money was REAL..." most right-minded individuals would load up with hollow points and take aim.

Having looked at your psuedie-intellectual posts, I'm sure everyone on here is aware how smart you think you are, and how pathetic your think the rest of us are.

So yes, offense mandatory for little shitkickers like you.

Don't bother replying (although of course you will - shitkickers ALWAYS have to get the last word), because we all already know what you 'think' (used in its widest sense of course).

I was genuinely a little shocked by your reply, which I have to say I think is completely uncalled-for.

I had to read it through twice just because I couldn't believe it first time around. It sounded as though you were actually claiming to have at some past point in your life persuaded someone to stay in a room with you long enough to start a game of Monopoly!

Then I read it again and realised that I was of course completely mistaken and you were just speaking hypothetically, and no-one would have to recalibrate their impression of you being a totally friendless cockrag after all. Panic over!!

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I was genuinely a little shocked by your reply, which I have to say I think is completely uncalled-for.

.....I see you've met PG :lol:

He's a pussy cat really

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FTSE up nearly 2% this morning. If this was reversed there would be a thread announcing it. Do you think this clouds peoples judgement and that people on here have biased sentiments rather than cold, logical & rational analysis?

Looks like it will be a fairly black Friday looking at DOW futures and the way FTSE has dropped. Jobless data in US is not looking good.

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I find the level of certainty expressed by some individuals on these boards about imminent house price apocalypse to be have more in common with the mindset of religious cults than with a cold-hearted rational view of possible futures.

It's very interesting to go back to the old threads on this board from 2004-5. Prices fell around 5% over a few months and everyone hailed the coming crash. Then when they started rising again people shouted bull trap all the way up , pouncing on any minor piece of negative data as a sign that the group mindset was right all along and that the crash was still on. It actually makes quite sad reading at times, some of the posts have such an air of desperation about them.

Having said that, I do believe it's different this time and we are indeed a bull trap that is about to collapse. But I don't hold that opinion with the near-religious zeal or fervor that other members have, you have to accept that there is always a chance that you and those that think like you have got it wrong.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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