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On The Power Of Cab Drivers

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Nice little vid.

"people can individually acceot my ideas...... but collectively they behave differently..and there is no way out of that."

Excellent - there's more contained in that video than his repetitive Black Swan book. Perhaps I should change my opinion about Taleb (and take Injin off ignore :P ).

People sell out. They don't mean to but they do - and you see it in their eyes.

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No, it's pants. Basically "Shit happens".

Isn't it "Shit happens ... so if you have a bunch of traders betting on shit not happening, and profiting from it, and getting bonuses on it, and this seems OK because day in and day out no major shit happens, then one day the banks get wiped out because the shit has happened, and it's hit the fan and they have a big position on it the shit not happening, the traders are individually OK as they are not liable but the bank is in the shit and needs to be bailed out or will go bust, neither a nice scenario, and the collective macroeconomic shit that happens is ... the credit crunch"

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Isn't it "Shit happens ... so if you have a bunch of traders betting on shit not happening, and profiting from it, and getting bonuses on it, and this seems OK because day in and day out no major shit happens, then one day the banks get wiped out because the shit has happened, and it's hit the fan and they have a big position on it the shit not happening, the traders are individually OK as they are not liable but the bank is in the shit and needs to be bailed out or will go bust, neither a nice scenario, and the collective macroeconomic shit that happens is ... the credit crunch"

It is called a free market - those externalities sure are a pain on this ivory tower idea

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It is called a free market - those externalities sure are a pain on this ivory tower idea

The black swan thing isn't an ivory tower idea, but it is a common sense idea.

The analogy for an ordinary folk (not a trader) is buying a large house in 2000 and choose to borrow the increase in it's price every year. Assuming you can do that forever.

Then inevitably there will be a crash one day, "the unforeseen black swan" or even a bit of a drop and this nice dream not only dies, but you get wiped out in the process as you were relying on that MEW money for everything from holidays to food.

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It is called a free market - those externalities sure are a pain on this ivory tower idea

Banks are anything but a free market, they are a privileged cabal (the banking license gives them the exclusive right to create money) that lives off the back of common people's work.

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The black swan thing isn't an ivory tower idea, but it is a common sense idea.

The analogy for an ordinary folk (not a trader) is buying a large house in 2000 and choose to borrow the increase in it's price every year. Assuming you can do that forever.

Then inevitably there will be a crash one day, "the unforeseen black swan" or even a bit of a drop and this nice dream not only dies, but you get wiped out in the process as you were relying on that MEW money for everything from holidays to food.

Sorry - I agree with you -I meant the free market idea is ivory tower

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Guest absolutezero

Sorry - I agree with you -I meant the free market idea is ivory tower

Very ivory tower as there is no such thing as a free market.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/video/2010/jun/02/nassim-nicholas-taleb-hay-festival

Nice little vid.

"people can individually acceot my ideas...... but collectively they behave differently..and there is no way out of that."

I was there - he's an interesting guy. He is more of a political philosopher than anything else. I'm not sure about his writing style. Black Swan is not an easy read with all of its parentheses and footnotes*. But he makes some useful observations about human behaviour with regards to things such as the financial markets and the environment.

* Even his footnotes (often) contain parentheses.

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Is The Black Swan a recommended read?

God NO. I read it on the assumption that praise on here indicated it would be an interesting read.

A nice premise that warrants a short (and very good) paper.

Instead its padded out to fill a book with a writing style based on the idea of torturing innocent words untl they confess.

The padding involves egotistic rambling, claims that nobody else has an idea in their heads and spurious "examples" that ,on trivial inspection, clearly do not in themselves demonstrate what he claims they do.

Edited by Jadoube

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/video/2010/jun/02/nassim-nicholas-taleb-hay-festival

Nice little vid.

"people can individually acceot my ideas...... but collectively they behave differently..and there is no way out of that."

It's pseudo-intellectual waffle, and on that basis I can understand you being impressed by it. The same trite observations, hardly worthy of lengthy-and deeply tedious- elucidation; basically the same claptrap he's been dining out on for years.

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It's pseudo-intellectual waffle, and on that basis I can understand you being impressed by it. The same trite observations, hardly worthy of lengthy-and deeply tedious- elucidation; basically the same claptrap he's been dining out on for years.

And it's still better than anything you have ever come out with.

:)

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God NO. I read it on the assumption that praise on here indicated it would be an interesting read.

A nice premise that warrants a short (and very good) paper.

Instead its padded out to fill a book with a writing style based on the idea of torturing innocent words untl they confess.

The padding involves egotistic rambling, claims that nobody else has an idea in their heads and spurious "examples" that ,on trivial inspection, clearly do not in themselves demonstrate what he claims they do.

Yep - That sums it up well!

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And it's still better than anything you have ever come out with.

:)

It really isn't,because it's entirely derivative anyway, and it adds nothing to our understanding of anything. No sphere of knowledge was advanced one iota by his rubbish, but his ponderous waffle has spawned a legion of copycats writing verbosely about nonsense. The Emperor has no clothes, but he's is well aware of the fact, he just hope nobody has the courage to say so.

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It really isn't,because it's entirely derivative anyway, and it adds nothing to our understanding of anything. No sphere of knowledge was advanced one iota by his rubbish, but his ponderous waffle has spawned a legion of copycats writing verbosely about nonsense. The Emperor has no clothes, but he's is well aware of the fact, he just hope nobody has the courage to say so.

And it's still better than anything you have ever come out with.

:)

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Is The Black Swan a recommended read?

I thought it was very good. I think a lot of the hostility towards it is because it goes against one of the implicit assumptions of Western culture - that man is innately competent and can control the future.

A lot of people hate being told that that isn't true.

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I thought it was very good. I think a lot of the hostility towards it is because it goes against one of the implicit assumptions of Western culture - that man is innately competent and can control the future.

A lot of people hate being told that that isn't true.

What I find interesting is the claim that having this belief refuted is arrogant on Talebs part.

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I asked for evidence, you provided none. Typical of any discourse with you.

If you think about it, by default no one has done great deeds.

Burden of proof is all yours. Is it heavy?

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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