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Remember what I said......only actual rate cuts will work. Better get that STR cash moved into something a little more productive that earning interest.....soon!!!!

http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13420170,00.html

MORTGAGE DEALS FALL OFF

Mortgage approvals for home purchases fell 6% in July.

However, that was at a much slower rate than in previous months.

Approvals - the number of loans agreed but not yet made - fell to 65,611 in July from a 12-month high of 70,750 in June, said the British Bankers' Association.

That compared with a 20.4% annual fall over the year, seen in June.

The average value of loans approved was up 9% from a year ago at £132,700.

The approvals figures are not adjusted to reflect seasonal patterns in the housing market, which means they can be volatile from month to month.

Confirming a preliminary figure from last week, the BBA said underlying seasonally adjusted mortgage lending rose by £3.7bn - the weakest rise since December 2001 - compared with ?4.7bn in June.

It was also below the average of ?4.4bn over the previous six months.

"The weakness resulted largely from higher than usual levels of redemptions, particularly relating to maturing fixed rate loans," said BBA director of statistics David Dooks.

"Together with relatively slow approvals, it reiterates the subdued mortgage environment of late," he added.

The BBA said unsecured credit card lending rose by ?123m in July - less than half June's £293m - reflecting weaker retail sales that month.

The Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time in two years in August to 4.5% from 4.75% to boost flagging consumer spending.

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As is well known on this forum you need 90,000 housing transactions a month just to maintain a stable market, if there has only been 65,000 approvals of which quite a large number will not reach fruitition then in my book this is looking pretty good for us bears.

I'm not quite sure what your point is TTRTR?

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Gordon Brown's economic model is a mirror of Alan Greenspans.

GB has tracked Greenspans moves step by step for years.

My point is - US rates are widely tipped to rise each month bar one for the rest of this year. That will mean US rates of 4.25%.

I don't think GB knows what to do next.

If he looks to Greenspan rates are staying put.

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Well his point is... that if the government decides that lower IR are the only way to go in light of this data, then we will be sitting on 2% net savings interest and he on 5% yield.

Except I'm not holding cash so IR can do what it likes (within reason).

Edited by Nijo

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Well his point is... that if the government decides that lower IR are the only way to go in light of this data, then we will be sitting on 2% net savings interest and he on 5% yield.

Except I'm not holding cash so IR can do what it likes (within reason).

Since when have the government decided which way interest rates are going?

Not since '97 as I'm aware.

D :blink:

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Well many believe that some of the MPC are puppets of GB!

Of which I am a believer as well that some back room talk goes on.

However with Merv' voting against this time I'd suggest this theory is lessend in strength.

D

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Quote:

Compared to the same month a year earlier, July's approvals of house purchase loans were 6% lower by number but 9% higher by value; remortgaging loans were 9% lower by number but 5% higher by value; and equity withdrawal loans were 25% lower by number and also 17% lower by value.

Surely this means that only the best properties are selling for high prices or the top end is still moving, this bears out the land registry increase figures.

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:blink:  :blink:

It won't be fun being an STR earning less & less interest.

It will only add to the cost of being an STR, with fixed rent payments and reduced interest receipts.

So where do you get info that I'll be getting less and less interest?

Yes my rent is fixed , for 3 yrs at below market value so no problem there.

D

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates

Remember what I said......only actual rate cuts will work. Better get that STR cash moved into something a little more productive that earning interest.....soon!!!!

David Miles, Economist at Morgan Stanley.

Our central guess remains that rates may stay around 4.5%for the rest of this

year-but that the next move in rates is rather more likely to be up than down. ;)

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I'm sure they would love to cut IR, but I just don't think they can. The inflationary pressure is building up. The lid has been kept on it by Chinese imports, which will inevitably rise in price as China's standard of living improves. We are already seeing the west trying to protect its own clothing producers - this can only result in higher prices.

Then there's the oil price - no end in sight in Iraq, Iran rattling nuclear sabres and a huge and growing network of islamists in Saudi, who will sooner or later manage to do serious damage to pipelines/refineries/oil workers.

GB has 4 years to the next election - he's always going to play for pain now, recovery in 2008.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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