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Smell the Fear

How Low Can We Go?

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So things have been progressing as we all hoped and planned to a large extent. Like many of you I am waiting for value before buying a house.

The big question is how far are we from the bottom? What yardstick are you all using and how far off the bottom do you think we are?

Personally I am interested in any property in good condition below RV. I think I could probably negotiate a few to maybe 5-10% below RV at present (in south belfast) but would be happier at 20-30% below RV.

Opinions?

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So things have been progressing as we all hoped and planned to a large extent. Like many of you I am waiting for value before buying a house.

The big question is how far are we from the bottom? What yardstick are you all using and how far off the bottom do you think we are?

Personally I am interested in any property in good condition below RV. I think I could probably negotiate a few to maybe 5-10% below RV at present (in south belfast) but would be happier at 20-30% below RV.

Opinions?

I'll tell you after the emergency budget but would reckon that you cant go far wrong at 5-10 per cent below ratable value (i.e. 2003/4 prices). Prices might drop further but I reckon it's better to time it close to some kind of bottom rather than competing on the way up - also, a big factor for me, would be to fix-on some kind of good 5 year fixed rate rather that waiting for the base rate to start rising. These are only my opinions.

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I think we should wait a good 6 months to see how the sovereign debt crisis plays out and how the budget affects the economy here. If there are strong falls, then you will want to wait until homes drop properly. There is a substantial chance of a proper HPC. The news of 'recovery' is really very misleading. Many economic indicators are terrifying and suggest massive problems to come all over the world. EG The measure of money supply M3 in the USA is now falling at a rate not seen since 1931. The Fed are very worried about that! I could go on and on with a long list of factors which suggest.....'there may be trouble ahead.......'

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/\ agree with that

the other question people should be asking themselves, is that when house prices have reached an appropriate low, will they have big enough balls to tie themselves to a large debt as the wider eonomy and employment prospects appear to be worsening.

i sometimes wonder if us bears, myself included, are a little simplistic in our outlook, imagining a utopia of stable employment and low house prices.

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/\ agree with that

the other question people should be asking themselves, is that when house prices have reached an appropriate low, will they have big enough balls to tie themselves to a large debt as the wider eonomy and employment prospects appear to be worsening.

i sometimes wonder if us bears, myself included, are a little simplistic in our outlook, imagining a utopia of stable employment and low house prices.

I wouldn't like to comment on that.

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i sometimes wonder if us bears, myself included, are a little simplistic in our outlook, imagining a utopia of stable employment and low house prices.

For the Northern Ireland housing market to see the 60%-70% nominal falls that I am predicting, the economic situation will change. Unfortunately, prices will not fall that much without a certain amount of pain.

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Some of the motivated sellers prices are getting my attention at the moment so I guess my thresholds been crossed already, would just rather everything was at that level to give some more choice, at that level they are selling quickly. What might take longer is to be able to listen to crap from an EA without wanting to spit.

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the bottom could be a long road yet - depends how desperate the BoE want to fight deflation by allowing inflation and currency debasement

if we get a Q408 type rout again (aka double dip) then it may be sooner; if the printers are cranked up again and IR's don't rise anytime soon, HP's will remain flat imho

then there is the China factor - if China can ride through the bubbles in its economy relatively easy then the west to east growth model continues and the impact on the global economy will be benign and thus stagnation in the west continues. If China has a serious rout and the global markets wobble, the Double D's will be out again (not page 3 subby).

don't discount the BoE's ability to debase and keep real interest rates negative if needs be to keep the 'status quo' of stagnation and benign growth - illusory growth really

i read a lot of articles telling me that the double dip is coming (the big one) sooner rather than later, but i also read some articles saying that the central banks will stimulate inflation no matter what - 1trillion liquidity in euroland anyone? german banks buying greek bonds from the french to hide that black hole? the leverage of OTC derivatives to get the banksters whatever they want is reality:

the commercial (banksters) longs on the euro outweigh the shorts by 2:1

eurojun1.png

while everyone is buying the dollar and selling the euro, the banksters are going the other way - the current financial system works for them, they don't want to see it broken, or at least they wont without a fight.

House Prices are a mere sideshow

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I had thought we'd bottom out next year but this tanker is taking it's time to turn. I reckon it'll be 2012 then a bump along the bottom for a year or two.

As there is a lag on detatched house prices I 'll probably aim to move around 2013/14.

Plenty of time to build up a hefty deposit. If other things pan out we may have experienced a PM bubble which would be good news for some of the more seasoned posters. ;)

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Well I'm hoping for 20-30% below RV to get back to normal levels of affordability, but really a paying job is required for mortgage, so will have to get that sorted first.

Think I might just spend my deposit on developing a business instead as only myself to worry about now.

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I had thought we'd bottom out next year but this tanker is taking it's time to turn. I reckon it'll be 2012 then a bump along the bottom for a year or two.

As there is a lag on detatched house prices I 'll probably aim to move around 2013/14.

Plenty of time to build up a hefty deposit. If other things pan out we may have experienced a PM bubble which would be good news for some of the more seasoned posters. ;)

i wouldn't normally post gold related stuff on this sub-forum, but this graph i have seen today is interesting in relation to the above:

20100603-pp84tgff843n1apmadckuxk9su.jpg

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Who knows what is to come, but in terms of house prices I'm much happier to be here than anywhere else in the UK. Sellers here are getting more and more realistic, while the rest of the UK must be back to square one, with sellers holding out for rising prices again. After 5 or more years waiting to buy a house, it must be heartbreaking for most.

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I had thought we'd bottom out next year but this tanker is taking it's time to turn. I reckon it'll be 2012 then a bump along the bottom for a year or two.

As there is a lag on detatched house prices I 'll probably aim to move around 2013/14.

im renting a place that ticks every single box for me , i mean every single one. so no rush to buy. getting married end of next year so i'd say your dead right that some part of 2012 will probably be the nominal or close to the nominal bottom. most of us have been on here from 05-07 so if you can hold out to 2012 you'll get your rewards IMHO

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i wouldn't normally post gold related stuff on this sub-forum, but this graph i have seen today is interesting in relation to the above:

20100603-pp84tgff843n1apmadckuxk9su.jpg

I really could see gold at $3000 and the dow at 6000 proving this chart and peter schiff right.

i still think we have a deflationary bust to come first which should knock all assets , although maybe the flight to safety will be gold not US$ this time ?!?!?!

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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