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Bp Getting Killed This Morning!


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If you lease a car, you are the registered keeper and have to insure it.

BP have effectively leased the rig. Because they self insure, there is no insurance policy for them to provide to TransOcean as proof of insurance so they had to provide an indemnification.

To extend the lease analogy further, if the manufacturer of the equipment has been negligent the lessee and lessor might have a claim against the manufacturer for damages.

I would say a claim is very probable...the equipment failed...just hours after an inspection.

you lease a drill, and it breaks snapping your forearm, you have a claim.

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Yes, this has crossed my mind - it would not surprise me to learn that a US oil cmpany has bought out a much-devalued BP someime in the next year or so.

Unless they sort things technically very quickly and against the odds, this is very likely. Exxon and ChevTex like all the other IOCs are failing to replace reserves or maintain market share vs. the NOCs. For them taking out BP to at least stick a five year sticking plaster over their problems would be perfect; while of course kicking those cocky Brits for taking out Amoco and Arco all those years ago...............

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At some point, presumably when it gets back to March 2009 levels, it will be a buy?

If the leak goes on for 9,000 days, or a hurricane plasters oil all over the American South, it won't.

The lying barstewards at BP have been covering up the visibility of their oil for 42 days so as to minimise liability.

Their con-trick can't go on for much longer.

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Damn stupid of the US. No one will ever drill in the USA again if they hit BP hard over this. Accidents happen. Get over it.

Obviously BP did not intentionally blow up its own rig so I don't see why BP is at fault for anything.

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That's old-world-think. Someone with the resources to buy it these days might have some other currency - such as roubles.

Not really.

1. The crosses don't trade directly in such large amounts. If a Russian were to buy BP, their hedging bank would sell RUB, buy USD and then sell USD to buy GBP.

2. If China were to buy BP, they would probably do so out of foreign exchange reserves held in Dollars or possibly EUR.

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Damn stupid of the US. No one will ever drill in the USA again if they hit BP hard over this. Accidents happen. Get over it.

Obviously BP did not intentionally blow up its own rig so I don't see why BP is at fault for anything.

Agreed.

I also thought that they didn't want shallow water drilling because the rigs look ugly so they forced drilling into deep water with all of the attendant technical challenges.

The US has a voracious appetite for hydrocarbons, wants energy independence, won't develop big parts of Alaska and appear to be in the process of making offshore drilling very expensive if not impossible. There is no way for them to reconcile all of these competing goals.

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I expected a big fall, but it was already 5 % down last week.....................now 15% today !

Mike

And down 3.26% this morning (2nd June).

The pattern feels somewhat northern rockish, big fall, then a slight easement in the fall rate as wise-guys buy in, before it hits the floor.

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Damn stupid of the US. No one will ever drill in the USA again if they hit BP hard over this. Accidents happen. Get over it.

Obviously BP did not intentionally blow up its own rig so I don't see why BP is at fault for anything.

The whole oil industry is at fault for inadequate safety and environmental standards. That includes regulators around the world.

Best possible outcome of this would be if they'd adopt some of the much higher standards from the nuclear industry. Trouble with that is, they won't accept the $$$ costs.

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Guest absolutezero

hope maybe to get some cheap shares in a few more weeks

Just because they're cheap doesn't mean they're good value.

I say this as a BP shareholder. My BP are 27 percent down on where I bought them. Oh dear.

I dare say they'll come back up again.

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And down 3.26% this morning (2nd June).

The pattern feels somewhat northern rockish, big fall, then a slight easement in the fall rate as wise-guys buy in, before it hits the floor.

Trying to catch falling pianos is a dangerous business. People often end up getting crushed.

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The whole oil industry is at fault for inadequate safety and environmental standards. That includes regulators around the world.

Best possible outcome of this would be if they'd adopt some of the much higher standards from the nuclear industry. Trouble with that is, they won't accept the $$$ costs.

+1

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  • 3 weeks later...

If the leak goes on for 9,000 days, or a hurricane plasters oil all over the American South, it won't.

The lying barstewards at BP have been covering up the visibility of their oil for 42 days so as to minimise liability.

Their con-trick can't go on for much longer.

Current estimates show leak at 60k bbls/day or more and since last posting to this thread dividend suspension has been confirmed. BP have also agreed to set aside $20bn for clean-up and compensation.

There are a number of worrying factors out there and I'll list a few below:

1) $20bn fund referred to above does not constitute a 'ceiling' i.e. cost could go a lot higher.

2) A fine is likely to be imposed by US authorities which, according to recent Daily Telegraph article, could be $4400 per barrel spilled. If, for example, spill is indeed 60k bbls/day and it takes 150 days from date of incident to plugging leak (by relief wells) then we are talking in the order of a $40bn penalty.

3) BP's credit rating has incurred major downgrades from key rating agencies and, as per recent BBC article by Robert Peston entitled Why BP Suspended the Dividend, their cost of debt insurance has jumped to punitive levels.

4) Reports today point ot a sale of assets, including those in N Sea, to raise a few billion dollars towards clean-up costs.

Based on above pointers it's not that surprising to note that there are a number of estimates around suggesting cost could reach (or surpass) $100bn. As other posters here have said it's far too early to determine the outcome, there are just too many variables out there. There's a large amount of daily info, some quite technical, on The Oildrum

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I say this as a BP shareholder. My BP are 27 percent down on where I bought them. Oh dear.

I'm down 7%. I win! :D

I think the climax and next best buying opportunity (short of outright bankruptcy if this thing goes on for years) may rise when the first hurricane hits.

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For the record I brought 1000 shares on last wednesday 16th June before Obama's speech @3.40 per share.

What I don't get is BP hires a rig (car) to sub-contractors (you or me) who then crashes it then BP (car hire company) gets sued for the damage? On top of that our new government does not offer a word of support for BP. Obama & Co (the biggest polluters since the asteroid that killed the dinosaur) ought to think about taking some of the blame themselves. Our government should ast least say something and stop them brain washing the yanks into thinking it's all BP's fault gaining public support and taking them to the cleaners, who knows what the compensation will stop at then. :angry: :angry:

Edited by 911-caused-it-all
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For the record I brought 1000 shares on last wednesday 16th June before Obama's speech @3.40 per share.

What I don't get is BP hires a rig (car) to sub-contractors (you or me) who then crashes it then BP (car hire company) gets sued for the damage? On top of that our new government does not offer a word of support for BP. Obama & Co (the biggest polluters since the asteroid that killed the dinosaur) ought to think about taking some of the blame themselves. Our government should ast least say something and stop them brain washing the yanks into thinking it's all BP's fault gaining public support and taking them to the cleaners, who knows what the compensation will stop at then. :angry: :angry:

There's a lot of truth to your comments. I wonder if BP intentionally under-estimated the amount of oil spilling out, but they simply may have not known. Apart from that they've stood up and taken responsibility and taken all the abuse on the chin. I would like to see them stand up for themselves a little (while continuing to take responsibility). I learned long ago not to catch a falling knife (Marconi) so am in no rush to buy the shares, but am keeping my eye on them. Long term they would be a good buy but I worry about someone buying them out while the stock price is low.

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Considered jumping in at 335 earlier this week - decided not too as I couldn't see any happy news on the horizon. Stock now looking like it's going to break 300. (-7% so far today).

At what price does it become a certainty that BP will be bought by another company? Still like to buy it, but am now thinking 250p - have no idea if that is near the bottom or not though.

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  • 3 weeks later...

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