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Realistbear

Euro Hits Critical Support Level Of 1.215

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1.21591

Where next? Sub-1.20 by Friday looks possible now.

Edit:

1.21372

1.215 was said by the stochastic crowd to be the break down point. No rapid descent unless it picks up in a few moments.

Perhaps Greece talking about coming out of the Euro has the traders wondering, if Greece, why not Spain....and France.

Edited by Realistbear

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Thanks for upgrading my remarks to a full blown thread RB ;)

Interestingly enough, £ seems to have decoupled from the Euro somewhat.

Up until last week, the correlation in Eur/Usd and cable was very close to 1, now with strong support at 0.84 in Eur/Gbp broken, sterling is holding up nicely in the face of renewed risk aversion.

The market is giving the coalition the benefit of the doubt, it seems.

Edited by VoteWithYourFeet

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If it gets down to the 1.10 level, that will be just fine. Was there or thereabouts when I went to Florida about 5yrs ago and the world didn't end then.... B)

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If it gets down to the 1.10 level, that will be just fine.

Absolutely.

1.10 is much closer to the real purchasing power parity, and will help the PIIGS no end.

On another note, I found this in my old links cupboard.

Britain's debt now a 'riskier proposition' than Italy's

That was at the end of last year - my, how things have changed.

10yr BTPs yield now 60bp above 10yr gilts. :D

Edited by VoteWithYourFeet

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At some point "They" need to kill the £ ....................By the winter i think.

Mike

For the moment it looks like a significant level has been breached on the EUR/GBP at .84 ish, looks like a trip to .80 is possible in quick time matcing the ramp up on the other side.

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Yup, gold to Euro is testing new highs too - nearly €1010 oz now. That said, gold is up against all the major currencies today.

It's interesting that stocks are falling, Brent oil is falling, the pound is falling, the euro is falling, yet today gold is rising. Is it behaving as 'just a commodity' or as 'safe money' today, I wonder?

Edited by Traktion

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Yup, gold to Euro is testing new highs too - nearly €1010 oz now. That said, gold is up against all the major currencies today.

It's interesting that stocks are falling, Brent oil is falling, the pound is falling, the euro is falling, yet today gold is rising. Is it behaving as 'just a commodity' or as 'safe money' today, I wonder?

It certainly isn't behaving like a commodity - well at last not the broad commodity index. Ever since the Greek fallout and China taking lending by nuts after having blow out every stop the commodities market has apprently signalled a very large decrease in demand in view of the pricing being quoted. Has it fully decoupled from the commodity sector, not sre, but it never has in the recent/medium past, I posted a fiarly long run chart of Gold / Commodity index and there were high degress of correlation throughout the period.

Edited by OnlyMe

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Who decides where these support points are?

Whenever I look at 'charts' it strikes me someone has taken a ruler and drawn pairs of lines over a series of peaks and troughs and extrapolated them to create 'support' levels.

Does it never occur to them that if you adjust the positions a little you can see lots of times where 'support' levels have been broken and then completely ignored.

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Who decides where these support points are?

Whenever I look at 'charts' it strikes me someone has taken a ruler and drawn pairs of lines over a series of peaks and troughs and extrapolated them to create 'support' levels.

Does it never occur to them that if you adjust the positions a little you can see lots of times where 'support' levels have been broken and then completely ignored.

It seems to be that they are ignored until they aren't and when they aren't then all hell breaks loose till the next one is found.

Momentum and lack of volume of exisitng buyers/sellers at intervening points so no resistance to movement seems to the be the net effect.

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Who decides where these support points are?

Whenever I look at 'charts' it strikes me someone has taken a ruler and drawn pairs of lines over a series of peaks and troughs and extrapolated them to create 'support' levels.

Does it never occur to them that if you adjust the positions a little you can see lots of times where 'support' levels have been broken and then completely ignored.

I think it's just about market psychology. If enough people think a few lines on a chart show 'support', then enough people respond accordingly. Seems a bit daft to me, but there you go!

EDIT: BTW, people may set certain actions at certain points, like buy at the last trough or sell if it falls far below it and such. It's still just acting on lines on a chart, but you can see how it can effect the eb/flow of the prices.

Edited by Traktion

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Perhaps Greece talking about coming out of the Euro has the traders wondering, if Greece, why not Spain....and France.

I suspect the euro would shoot up if anyone took any of these seriously.

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It certainly isn't behaving like a commodity - well at last not the broad commodity index. Ever since the Greek fallout and China taking lending by nuts after having blow out every stop the commodities market has apprently signalled a very large decrease in demand in view of the pricing being quoted. Has it fully decoupled from the commodity sector, not sre, but it never has in the recent/medium past, I posted a fiarly long run chart of Gold / Commodity index and there were high degress of correlation throughout the period.

Interesting... if we get a stock market and/or currency crash, I suppose we will have our answer illustrated pretty clearly then.

Edited by Traktion

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At some point "They" need to kill the £ ....................By the winter i think.

Mike

I think they are going to kill all Western currencies. The race to the bottom between all these is becoming an irrelevant sideshow.

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Has it fully decoupled from the commodity sector, not sure, but it never has in the recent/medium past, I posted a fairly long run chart of Gold / Commodity index and there were high degrees of correlation throughout the period.

To my sorrow it is decoupled now. Still hoping it will rejoin the CRB index soon. The push down might come from Hedge Funds who I suspect might sell gold last this time.

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1.21591

Where next? Sub-1.20 by Friday looks possible now.

Edit:

1.21372

1.215 was said by the stochastic crowd to be the break down point. No rapid descent unless it picks up in a few moments.

Perhaps Greece talking about coming out of the Euro has the traders wondering, if Greece, why not Spain....and France.

The interesting thing about this is that the USD is itself very weak against countries where their economy is behaving more normally, like Australia. It is only that the Euro and £ are even weaker that makes this competitive devaluation occur. Fiat currencies in the West are on the verge of being broken. Buy hard assets quick!

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Who decides where these support points are?

Whenever I look at 'charts' it strikes me someone has taken a ruler and drawn pairs of lines over a series of peaks and troughs and extrapolated them to create 'support' levels.

Does it never occur to them that if you adjust the positions a little you can see lots of times where 'support' levels have been broken and then completely ignored.

Support levels are based on reverse Elliot waves and break out points that relate back to antilogarithmic quotients and underlying moving averages that do not interpolate with previous highs that are squared according to the formula set by static averages that run in the opposite direction to the Elliott waves!

IOW, support levels are where the traders think panic will set in if they go below.

1.21484

Pound is soaring on the Land Registry data! Shows you we are a house price driven economy. Looks like the pound will be hit hard in a few months when the BS is knocked out of the market.

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The interesting thing about this is that the USD is itself very weak against countries where their economy is behaving more normally, like Australia. It is only that the Euro and £ are even weaker that makes this competitive devaluation occur. Fiat currencies in the West are on the verge of being broken. Buy hard assets quick!

Buffettt warned that hard assets/commodities were in a bubble a couple of years ago and would burst. Looks like that day may have arrived:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aVi5QeUitk8k&pos=15

Commodities’ Biggest Drop Since Lehman Bear Signal (Update2)

By Millie "Millicent" Munshi and Elizabeth "Liz" Campbell

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest slump in commodities since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed is undermining Wall Street forecasts for accelerating economic growth and higher prices for everything from copper to crude oil.

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  • 223 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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