Hpc In Now On! S&p Say Uk 17% Overvalued

[abharrisson]

The crash came...22% off in a year, that;s some housing market crash.

Gordon saw the election looming and tried to avert disaster.

Gordon made things worse.

The housing market hasnt recovered.

The remainder of the crash was postponed till gordon won the election.

The election has come and gone.

The last house price crash played out over 5 years. We are 2 years into this one.

We are living through the biggest financial storm in history.

We are living through the biggets house price crash in history.

These are facts.

You can deny all you want, you can ramp all you want, you can postpone the inevatable all you want, but you cant deny the facts, you cant deny the crash.

The people of the UK should be embreacing HPC, the people on here were right, are right, The media/government propoganda machine and selfish vested interest iditos dont like us because we are right. They have no arguments to contradict the simple arithmentic and logic which we work on. Why do they continue to do this....because their friends run the banks and their friend run the country.

Live in denial if you like. I'd advise against it.

If you believe a further crash ( eg steep correction ) is a nailed on certainty then you must surely need your head examining.... I have long held that prices will correct against the key measures but over quite some considerable time, and I am personally of the belief that many have some kind of irrational belief that the market will correct like it did last time, that it will overcorrect like it did last time, that buying opportunities will emerge thick and fast like they did last time, that they'll have their chance etc etc etc ... well I'm sorry its just not going to be like last time..... any look at the passgae of this one will tell you that, any look at the respective position of interest rates will tell you that, any look at the different behaviour of banks this time around will tell you that.

You can follow the HPC sheeple if you like and going on doing the little rain dance for the mother of all crashes but if you fail to recognise that there are other quite likely scenarios then you can only be a barking loon with a very very closed mind... I at least recognise the crash scenario is possible I just don't back it.. you appear in the dark ages, able to believe in little else.

[Gman]

If you believe a further crash ( eg steep correction ) is a nailed on certainty then you must surely need your head examining.... I have long held that prices will correct against the key measures but over quite some considerable time, and I am personally of the belief that many have some kind of irrational belief that the market will correct like it did last time, that it will overcorrect like it did last time, that buying opportunities will emerge thick and fast like they did last time, that they'll have their chance etc etc etc ... well I'm sorry its just not going to be like last time..... any look at the passgae of this one will tell you that, any look at the respective position of interest rates will tell you that, any look at the different behaviour of banks this time around will tell you that.

You can follow the HPC sheeple if you like and going on doing the little rain dance for the mother of all crashes but if you fail to recognise that there are other quite likely scenarios then you can only be a barking loon with a very very closed mind... I at least recognise the crash scenario is possible I just don't back it.. you appear in the dark ages, able to believe in little else.

You wouldn't be selling by any chance! lol

[TheCountOfNowhere]

If you believe a further crash ( eg steep correction ) is a nailed on certainty then you must surely need your head examining.... I have long held that prices will correct against the key measures but over quite some considerable time, and I am personally of the belief that many have some kind of irrational belief that the market will correct like it did last time, that it will overcorrect like it did last time, that buying opportunities will emerge thick and fast like they did last time, that they'll have their chance etc etc etc ... well I'm sorry its just not going to be like last time..... any look at the passgae of this one will tell you that, any look at the respective position of interest rates will tell you that, any look at the different behaviour of banks this time around will tell you that.

You can follow the HPC sheeple if you like and going on doing the little rain dance for the mother of all crashes but if you fail to recognise that there are other quite likely scenarios then you can only be a barking loon with a very very closed mind... I at least recognise the crash scenario is possible I just don't back it.. you appear in the dark ages, able to believe in little else.

That's the funniest thing i've read in ages. Countries are nearly defaulting on their debt and getting bailed out by other countries. The government ( bless them ) are using words like cuts, austerity, the start of the cuts, massive problems, recession, depression, no money, Labours fault etc etc etc.

Only an blinkered idiot cant see what is coming.

I can conceed that prices might actually not collapse if they manage to generate inflation but you'll be buying a £5 load and getting paid 100K a year...i.e. houses will be cheap. If they dont generate inflation then no one will have any money, austerity will be real, times will be harsh...houses will be cheap because no one will have money.

The last housing crash was a picnic in comparison to the events of the last couple of years. It follows that the outcome will be worse.

I personally think we will see the Japanese 18 year decline ( followed by further decline ) scenario happening. The british progoganda machine has convinced the stupid peopel of this country to endebt themselves just to have a shoe box to live in. The propoganda continues but their ability to borrow/pay has gone.

The only scenario is that it is not possible for the "la la land" thinking to continue and house prices to keep going up or remain flat, i.e. the will fall.

Any other thinking is stupidity plain and simple, only an estate agent, BTL'er or over-burdened desperate homeowner would think otherwise. Only one of the aforementioned would have any desire to keep prices high at everyone elses expense.

Accept it. The HPC hasnt ended...we are in the middle of it.

Edited June 1, 2010 by TheCountOfNowhere

[twatmangle]

That's the funniest thing i've read in ages. Countries are nearly defaulting on their debt and getting bailed out by other countries. The government ( bless them ) are using words like cuts, austerity, the start of the cuts, massive problems, recession, depression, no money, Labours fault etc etc etc.

This is what they were saying in the '70s

Only an blinkered idiot cant see what is coming.

This is what everyone was saying in 2007 too.

I can conceed that prices might actually not collapse if they manage to generate inflation but you'll be buying a £5 load and getting paid 100K a year...i.e. houses will be cheap. If they dont generate inflation then no one will have any money, austerity will be real, times will be harsh...houses will be cheap because no one will have money.

Lots of people will have money, just not people like you or I. Well, you mostly.

The last housing crash was a picnic in comparison to the events of the last couple of years. It follows that the outcome will be worse.

This doesn't make sense. If this crash is already far worse than the last one, why will the outcome have to be even worse?

I personally think we will see the Japanese 18 year decline ( followed by further decline ) scenario happening. The british progoganda machine has convinced the stupid peopel of this country to endebt themselves just to have a shoe box to live in. The propoganda continues but their ability to borrow/pay has gone.

Most people do not live in shoe boxes. It's a quaint HPC term, but mostly untrue.

The only scenario is that it is not possible for the "la la land" thinking to continue and house prices to keep going up or remain flat, i.e. the will fall.

A bold statement that there is only one outcome available. You may be right, but there are plenty of options

Any other thinking is stupidity plain and simple, only an estate agent, BTL'er or over-burdened desperate homeowner would think otherwise. Only one of the aforementioned would have any desire to keep prices high at everyone elses expense.

Sounds quite arrogant, that anyone who disagrees with you (and bear in mind you've totally been wrong so far) is an idiot, or a VI.

Accept it. The HPC hasnt ended...we are in the middle of it.

Probably right, although you do contradict yourself. We're two/three years since the great peak of '07. You think it will last more than 18 years, so we're hardly in the middle of it.

I'm just being grumpy argumentative today

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I'm just being grumpy argumentative today

Me too. I'm fed up with idiots, liars and leeches or to give them their collective name, estate agents.

I couldnt really give a toss about house prices as I wont be buying anytime soon.

I only stay on here just like to keep up to date with the latest collapsed organisation

The best thing about the HPC is watching stupid people thinking its all getting better.

By "bear in mind you've totally been wrong so far"...does that mean selling at the peak, buying gold, selling my shares near the top and moving to Paris make me "wrong so far" ?

I'm so glad I wasnt right

Edited June 1, 2010 by TheCountOfNowhere

[spiney]

Around my way 250 houses were for sale at Christmas with a sale price up to 180K

The figure today 352!!!

Number sstc over this holiday weekend 0!!!

Its comming.

Spiney

[The Masked Tulip]

Around my way 250 houses were for sale at Christmas with a sale price up to 180K

The figure today 352!!!

Number sstc over this holiday weekend 0!!!

Its comming.

Spiney

I assume very few EAs would be updating houses as SSTC over a bank holiday?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I assume very few EAs would be updating houses as SSTC over a bank holiday?

I think they're all back on here today spreading the joy of ever increasing house prices and debt.

It's good to see them appearing again...that way we know they're in trouble...again.

[spiney]

Today is not a bank holiday.

3 new properties added today acording to PB

If estate agents have time to add new property then they should have time to relist a sstc?

Around my way the estate agents are always very keen to list anything that has sold, just so it looks like things are selling.

Spiney.

P.S. How do you use the quote feature on this forum?

[Kazuya]

P.S. How do you use the quote feature on this forum?

Hit the REPLY button near the bottom-right of the post you want to quote.

[spiney]

Hit the REPLY button near the bottom-right of the post you want to quote.

Thanks.

Spiney.

[abharrisson]

That's the funniest thing i've read in ages. Countries are nearly defaulting on their debt and getting bailed out by other countries. The government ( bless them ) are using words like cuts, austerity, the start of the cuts, massive problems, recession, depression, no money, Labours fault etc etc etc.

Only an blinkered idiot cant see what is coming.

I can conceed that prices might actually not collapse if they manage to generate inflation but you'll be buying a £5 load and getting paid 100K a year...i.e. houses will be cheap. If they dont generate inflation then no one will have any money, austerity will be real, times will be harsh...houses will be cheap because no one will have money.

The last housing crash was a picnic in comparison to the events of the last couple of years. It follows that the outcome will be worse.

I personally think we will see the Japanese 18 year decline ( followed by further decline ) scenario happening. The british progoganda machine has convinced the stupid peopel of this country to endebt themselves just to have a shoe box to live in. The propoganda continues but their ability to borrow/pay has gone.

The only scenario is that it is not possible for the "la la land" thinking to continue and house prices to keep going up or remain flat, i.e. the will fall.

Any other thinking is stupidity plain and simple, only an estate agent, BTL'er or over-burdened desperate homeowner would think otherwise. Only one of the aforementioned would have any desire to keep prices high at everyone elses expense.

Accept it. The HPC hasnt ended...we are in the middle of it.

I don't know whether you can't read, don't know what to think, or just don't understand or a combination..... initially you said we were due a crash and that it was nailed on blah blah... to wit I responded that a crash ( sttep and deep) was no certainty and that those who couldn't see the alternatives were blinkered.... you claimed I was in denial, I was ramping houseprices etc etc .. clearly you are deluded if you think the content of any of my posts tries to do that... in the second email you change your tune and start talking about a japanes style collapse... you say over 18 years......... I sit ( and always have... no awaying in the wind for me) somewhere between these two and always have... maybe you ought to spend some time trying to understand exactly what form of correction you are anticipating, you have spent enough time here to work it out by now surely ?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I don't know whether you can't read, don't know what to think, or just don't understand or a combination..... initially you said we were due a crash and that it was nailed on blah blah... to wit I responded that a crash ( sttep and deep) was no certainty and that those who couldn't see the alternatives were blinkered.... you claimed I was in denial, I was ramping houseprices etc etc .. clearly you are deluded if you think the content of any of my posts tries to do that... in the second email you change your tune and start talking about a japanes style collapse... you say over 18 years......... I sit ( and always have... no awaying in the wind for me) somewhere between these two and always have... maybe you ought to spend some time trying to understand exactly what form of correction you are anticipating, you have spent enough time here to work it out by now surely ?

Do you really care what I think ?

The housing market will correct, 100% definite. The sooner the better in my book, a short sharp shock is need. The longer it goes on though, the longer the propoganda machine goes on telling everyone how great an investment property is and the longer they tax us to keep the banks/bubble going the more likely the 18 year slump is. I'd prefer the shor sharp shock. I fear the 18 year slump though will be the outcome, probably help keep the idiots thinking everything is still ok.

I hope that clairfies that.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Guys sorry to disagree, but please remember the difference between real and nominal falls.

There is nothing inherently real about the value of money or what you can buy for a pound.

If the Government decided to print £1m notes and gave everyone in the population such a note, there would be no nominal housing crash and likely the price of houses would shoot up. Of course a loaf of bread would cost you £800, but hey.

[Xurbia]

If you believe a further crash ( eg steep correction ) is a nailed on certainty then you must surely need your head examining.... I have long held that prices will correct against the key measures but over quite some considerable time, and I am personally of the belief that many have some kind of irrational belief that the market will correct like it did last time, that it will overcorrect like it did last time, that buying opportunities will emerge thick and fast like they did last time, that they'll have their chance etc etc etc ... well I'm sorry its just not going to be like last time..... any look at the passgae of this one will tell you that, any look at the respective position of interest rates will tell you that, any look at the different behaviour of banks this time around will tell you that.

You can follow the HPC sheeple if you like and going on doing the little rain dance for the mother of all crashes but if you fail to recognise that there are other quite likely scenarios then you can only be a barking loon with a very very closed mind... I at least recognise the crash scenario is possible I just don't back it.. you appear in the dark ages, able to believe in little else.

You are suggesting that the poster has a closed mind but you are a bit contradictory . Some pundits also reckoned that BP was a gold-plated dividend stock. Look at it now. There are at least 8 million people not contributing through taxes. European banks are in trouble. Spain has 20%+ unemployment. Where is the good news to underpin jobs and housing? In the year 2000 some predicted a crash. With hindsight it all seems quite comical now but it doesn't mean it cannot happen. I wouldn't place a bet against a crash because it could come very quickly. Even with low interest rates the transaction volume is very low. It smells bad.

Edited June 1, 2010 by Xurbia

[1888]

3x 5x 8x is pretty irrelevant

the real crunch is the %age of takehome pay

that gets swallowed up in mortgage payments (apparently)

Experts reckon you only need on average to spend 13.3% of your income on your mortgage which is the lowest rate since 2004.

http://www.talktalk.co.uk/money/latest-features/mortgages/mortgage-myths-keep-borrowers-in-dark-may-010.html?lpos=topstory-1-1-PM&lid=Mortgage_borrowers_in_the__dark

the spin on this would make the bbc blush

[wonderpup]

I have long held that prices will correct against the key measures but over quite some considerable time

Doesn't this overlook the impact of sentiment on behaviour? Once prices are seen to fall over a period and the downward trajectory

looks to be locked in, won't there be a rush to sell before they fall further, which then becomes a self fulfilling prophecy of a housing crash?

The same social forces that pumped the bubble- fear of being left behind- will act in the opposite direction to deflate it as people try to lock in the gains they have 'made'.

[Sparkey]

If you believe a further crash ( eg steep correction ) is a nailed on certainty then you must surely need your head examining.... I have long held that prices will correct against the key measures but over quite some considerable time, and I am personally of the belief that many have some kind of irrational belief that the market will correct like it did last time, that it will overcorrect like it did last time, that buying opportunities will emerge thick and fast like they did last time, that they'll have their chance etc etc etc ... well I'm sorry its just not going to be like last time..... any look at the passgae of this one will tell you that, any look at the respective position of interest rates will tell you that, any look at the different behaviour of banks this time around will tell you that.

You can follow the HPC sheeple if you like and going on doing the little rain dance for the mother of all crashes but if you fail to recognise that there are other quite likely scenarios then you can only be a barking loon with a very very closed mind... I at least recognise the crash scenario is possible I just don't back it.. you appear in the dark ages, able to believe in little else.

Ahhh I see now .... of course ... it's DIFFERENT this time!!!! Every other crash in history must have been influenced by different forces!

Damn ... looks like i've been waiting for nothing

[Spoony]

I just have an issue with this bloody 'house prices should be 3x salary and no more, because that's what they've always been' nonsense.

So tell me. What multiple of the average salary would you consider to be acceptable in this crash then>?

[Kazuya]

So tell me. What multiple of the average salary would you consider to be acceptable in this crash then>?

It's all about affordability doncha know?

Couple 1: Spend 35% of take home pay on mortgage and live comfortably.

Couple 2: Spend 70% of take home pay on mortgage and eat Tesco Value beans for dinner every day.

Affordable in both cases?

Yes...

[abharrisson]

Ahhh I see now .... of course ... it's DIFFERENT this time!!!! Every other crash in history must have been influenced by different forces!

Damn ... looks like i've been waiting for nothing

And your point is what exactly... that this crash is different to the last one, or thats its influenced by different forces. If you are agreeing with me that it is playing out very differently to last time ( regardless of the causes) then thats fine, if you are trying to disagree then I'd suggest you go and have another look at the charts etc and remind yourself whats going on....... as you say lol

[abharrisson]

Do you really care what I think ?

The housing market will correct, 100% definite. The sooner the better in my book, a short sharp shock is need. The longer it goes on though, the longer the propoganda machine goes on telling everyone how great an investment property is and the longer they tax us to keep the banks/bubble going the more likely the 18 year slump is. I'd prefer the shor sharp shock. I fear the 18 year slump though will be the outcome, probably help keep the idiots thinking everything is still ok.

I hope that clairfies that.

You are of course quite right I really don't care what you think or don't... it's an internet forum after all.... however I did think it worth pointing out that before you clarified your view in your last post that you were backing both a quick and severe crash and an 18 year correction both at the same time. And equally I really felt I ought to point out that your lack of reading skills had led you to a misunderstanding regardling my own position, you seemed to have got fixated that I was trying to say we were not in a correction period or that a further correction wouldn't occur... nothing could have been further from the truth.

[AteMoose]

Which scenario causes a HPC:

A. Income multiple at 3.5x interest rates at 18%?

B. Income multiples at 5x, and interest rates at 0.5%?

Affordability is important, because most of the population outside of HPC world, only looks at day to day costs, they dont think about the future it is all about todays cashflow. For the majority property is almost at historically affordable levels. Income multiples are too simplistic...

Edited June 2, 2010 by AteMoose

[twatmangle]

So tell me. What multiple of the average salary would you consider to be acceptable in this crash then>?

That's not for me to say. I just don't believe that the average house should cost 3x the average salary just because some people on here say so. It's a flawed argument.

[dances with sheeple]

That's not for me to say. I just don't believe that the average house should cost 3x the average salary just because some people on here say so. It's a flawed argument.

That is what the banks used to lend to the average person on average wages, who of course bought an average house? Rich people and those with lots of savings can do what they want, but there are not enough of them to prevent a correction? House prices are controlled mainly by what the banks will lend, that is the main point? The average citizen "buys" property with mostly borrowed money, there is a reason flats were 50K (for a decent one) at the end of the 90`s?