Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Gman

Hpc In Now On! S&p Say Uk 17% Overvalued

Recommended Posts

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201006010425dowjonesdjonline000136&title=european-house-prices-overvaluedset-for-second-dipsandp

The second dip is about to come.

I just watched Bloomberg and a guy from S&P said that Uk is at least 17% overvalued on housing market.

No sh** sherlock !

17%?

The average house is more than 5 times household salary therefore a lot more overvalued than 17%.

If the norm is up to 3 times household salary the average house would be around 120k. Average houses are closer to 200k which means a further decrease in the region of 40% should normalize the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest theboltonfury

17%?

The average house is more than 5 times household salary therefore a lot more overvalued than 17%.

If the norm is up to 3 times household salary the average house would be around 120k. Average houses are closer to 200k which means a further decrease in the region of 40% should normalize the market.

Is it 2007 all over again. I wait with baited breath for yet another anti-climax.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the norm is up to 3 times household salary the average house would be around 120k. Average houses are closer to 200k which means a further decrease in the region of 40% should normalize the market.

Is this the case though? Surely the market decides the price not historical precedence, or an arbitrary figure?

As you've probably guessed, I have issues with this whole 'house prices should be 3x average salary'. It's flawed in so many ways.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We should really commit ourselves to reading the whole article, before drawing conclusions based on what we want to happen...

The last paragraph of this article says...

"Price contractions associated with the current downturn in the U.K. market are probably over for the most part...but the pace of house price growth is likely to slow markedly in the coming quarters," S&P said.

Now, I have no idea how they come to this conclusion, as it seems entirely against all the other fundamentals and indicators, but the article doesn't actually say that the second HPC is "on," as we'd like to believe... :angry:

B

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is this the case though? Surely the market decides the price not historical precedence, or an arbitrary figure?

As you've probably guessed, I have issues with this whole 'house prices should be 3x average salary'. It's flawed in so many ways.

Maybe, but it can`t be sustained at ten times plus equity plus all the credit you can get your hands on? Most recent buyers are WAY out of their sandbox on real earning power versus the "price" of their house? something has to pop?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is this the case though? Surely the market decides the price not historical precedence, or an arbitrary figure?

As you've probably guessed, I have issues with this whole 'house prices should be 3x average salary'. It's flawed in so many ways.

Agree, that 3x average salary stood when the economy hadn't been completely flooded with debt and unfunded liablities and ******ed by globalization.

Heck most youngsters already have a 1x mortgage slung round their necks from college fees before they even earn a penny.

Edited by OnlyMe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest theboltonfury

this time you'll be disappointed, BoltonFailure.

There's no money left.

100% guaranteed.

Jocky Wilson.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe, but it can`t be sustained at ten times plus equity plus all the credit you can get your hands on? Most recent buyers are WAY out of their sandbox on real earning power versus the "price" of their house? something has to pop?

Yes, I agree that house prices are out of control, and that many many fell for the 'only ever go up' crap. I'm not going to disagree with all of the main HPC stuff. I just have an issue with this bloody 'house prices should be 3x salary and no more, because that's what they've always been' nonsense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A bit off topic, but I'll admit that there is a hell of a lot of 'For Sale' signs that have appeared in my area.

Round here, it's been notorious for houses to go from 'For Sale' to 'Sold' and then back to 'For Sale'. They're a heck of a lot of empty properties hanging around too with notices on the window. A few were put up for sale and then taken off the market...and they just stand there empty. As for the notices, they appear to be instructing the previous owner to remove their belongings by certain date....or something like that. I can't close enough to one of them to have a good read but the notice looks like the same on these properties.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201006010425dowjonesdjonline000136&title=european-house-prices-overvaluedset-for-second-dipsandp

The second dip is about to come.

I just watched Bloomberg and a guy from S&P said that Uk is at least 17% overvalued on housing market.

No sh** sherlock !

It was more than 17% overvalued last year after it had dropped 22%...it's a long way from reality.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[The average house is more than 5 times household salary therefore a lot more overvalued than 17%.

If the norm is up to 3 times household salary the average house would be around 120k. Average houses are closer to 200k which means a further decrease in the region of 40% should normalize the market.

[/quote]

The proper measure of this shows that UK residential property is between 30 and 47% overvalued as against the long term trend of income multiples. The market has NEVER in history failed to return to that trend and ALWAYS overshoots the DOWN and the UP in the process.

Noticed the news on CBI service sector survey showing falling sales feb to May. Unfortunately the crisis is well entrenched and confidence is waning. MR BROWN: "You cannot spend your way out of recession." (1997 Labour Party Conference - where he mentioned there would be 'no more boom and bust')

Edited by plummet expert

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201006010425dowjonesdjonline000136&title=european-house-prices-overvaluedset-for-second-dipsandp

The second dip is about to come.

I just watched Bloomberg and a guy from S&P said that Uk is at least 17% overvalued on housing market.

No sh** sherlock !

People have been screaming the housing has been overvalued since 2003..... it hasn't done anything to encourage a correction. Depending on which measure you use housing is overvalued but this doesn't mean the market will crash to correct the figures..... the figures may well correct over time, they may not, they may of course overcorrect through a crash.... but anyone who things a crash is likely , imminent or nailed on just becasue the market is overvalued needs their head examining.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People have been screaming the housing has been overvalued since 2003..... it hasn't done anything to encourage a correction. Depending on which measure you use housing is overvalued but this doesn't mean the market will crash to correct the figures..... the figures may well correct over time, they may not, they may of course overcorrect through a crash.... but anyone who things a crash is likely , imminent or nailed on just becasue the market is overvalued needs their head examining.

The crash came...22% off in a year, that;s some housing market crash.

Gordon saw the election looming and tried to avert disaster.

Gordon made things worse.

The housing market hasnt recovered.

The remainder of the crash was postponed till gordon won the election.

The election has come and gone.

The last house price crash played out over 5 years. We are 2 years into this one.

We are living through the biggest financial storm in history.

We are living through the biggets house price crash in history.

These are facts.

You can deny all you want, you can ramp all you want, you can postpone the inevatable all you want, but you cant deny the facts, you cant deny the crash.

The people of the UK should be embreacing HPC, the people on here were right, are right, The media/government propoganda machine and selfish vested interest iditos dont like us because we are right. They have no arguments to contradict the simple arithmentic and logic which we work on. Why do they continue to do this....because their friends run the banks and their friend run the country.

Live in denial if you like. I'd advise against it.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People are staying in their homes because they can afford the tiny mortgage payments.

The triggers for a fall will be a rise in interest rates and /or a rise in unemployment.

The question is, what will trigger a rise in interest rates?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this time you'll be disappointed, BoltonFailure.

There's no money left.

100% guaranteed.

what a viscious, yet contained, post.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People have been screaming the housing has been overvalued since 2003..... it hasn't done anything to encourage a correction. Depending on which measure you use housing is overvalued but this doesn't mean the market will crash to correct the figures..... the figures may well correct over time, they may not, they may of course overcorrect through a crash.... but anyone who things a crash is likely , imminent or nailed on just becasue the market is overvalued needs their head examining.

a greek default might just finish off a few lenders.

BP must be having an effect on many too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People have been screaming the housing has been overvalued since 2003..... it hasn't done anything to encourage a correction. Depending on which measure you use housing is overvalued but this doesn't mean the market will crash to correct the figures..... the figures may well correct over time, they may not, they may of course overcorrect through a crash.... but anyone who things a crash is likely , imminent or nailed on just becasue the market is overvalued needs their head examining.

It 's only recently banks stopped to lend money to all nutters who were ready to borrow more than 4-5 times their salary with low rate.

It's recently that mortgage becomes inaccessible and they wanted 10 to 20% of deposit..just to cover their ass as they know the market will come down and the deposit will permit the bank to get the lost adjusted!

I am afraid in the next couple of months you will see step by step that people cannot afford a house and banks won't afford to lend at a low rate.

Brown brought the shit by not permitting repossession, by putting interest rate low for too long..But he made nutters happy :ph34r:

Look at your friends, colleagues who bought, how many of them won't be able to afford their house if interest goes up? How many of them will realistically be able to pay their house? Most of my colleague bought a house with a 35 years mortgage with Interest only re payment at the top of the price!! Ridiculous I will say coz they cannot even afford to repay if interest goes up, cannot repay if one in the couple loose their job..and 35 years of mortgage means they will have to work until their 70s :blink:

Anyway what ever happen in the next few month will be bad for them, and worst in the next couple of years..

I agree for people who bought a house they can afford and they want to live in their house for the next 10 years, I don 't think it will matter anyway but for all others...it might be nasty ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It 's only recently banks stopped to lend money to all nutters who were ready to borrow more than 4-5 times their salary with low rate.

It's recently that mortgage becomes inaccessible and they wanted 10 to 20% of deposit..just to cover their ass as they know the market will come down and the deposit will permit the bank to get the lost adjusted!

I am afraid in the next couple of months you will see step by step that people cannot afford a house and banks won't afford to lend at a low rate.

Brown brought the shit by not permitting repossession, by putting interest rate low for too long..But he made nutters happy ph34r.gif

Look at your friends, colleagues who bought, how many of them won't be able to afford their house if interest goes up? How many of them will realistically be able to pay their house? Most of my colleague bought a house with a 35 years mortgage with Interest only re payment at the top of the price!! Ridiculous I will say coz they cannot even afford to repay if interest goes up, cannot repay if one in the couple loose their job..and 35 years of mortgage means they will have to work until their 70s blink.gif

Anyway what ever happen in the next few month will be bad for them, and worst in the next couple of years..

I agree for people who bought a house they can afford and they want to live in their house for the next 10 years, I don 't think it will matter anyway but for all others...it might be nasty wink.gif

How many suckers who post on here are in this position? Be honest now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The crash came...22% off in a year, that;s some housing market crash.

Gordon saw the election looming and tried to avert disaster.

Gordon made things worse.

The housing market hasnt recovered.

The remainder of the crash was postponed till gordon won the election.

The election has come and gone.

The last house price crash played out over 5 years. We are 2 years into this one.

We are living through the biggest financial storm in history.

We are living through the biggets house price crash in history.

These are facts.

You can deny all you want, you can ramp all you want, you can postpone the inevatable all you want, but you cant deny the facts, you cant deny the crash.

The people of the UK should be embreacing HPC, the people on here were right, are right, The media/government propoganda machine and selfish vested interest iditos dont like us because we are right. They have no arguments to contradict the simple arithmentic and logic which we work on. Why do they continue to do this....because their friends run the banks and their friend run the country.

Live in denial if you like. I'd advise against it.

Amen. This crash has never been more on, it is on with a VENGANCE. The Great Bear has a thorn is his ass and wants to eat some IO campers!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201006010425dowjonesdjonline000136&title=european-house-prices-overvaluedset-for-second-dipsandp

The second dip is about to come.

I just watched Bloomberg and a guy from S&P said that Uk is at least 17% overvalued on housing market.

No sh** sherlock !

Though that doesn't match up with the article...

"The ratings agency said the outlook for U.K. house prices is less clear, with some measures indicating that the market is undervalued and some that it is overvalued.

"This could mean another correction is in the offing," S&P said."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Though that doesn't match up with the article...

"The ratings agency said the outlook for U.K. house prices is less clear, with some measures indicating that the market is undervalued and some that it is overvalued.

"This could mean another correction is in the offing," S&P said."

The main thing indicating house prices are overvalued are the asking prices :lol:

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.