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Realistbear

6 O'clock Announcement By E C B: 2Nd Wave Of Bank Failures May Hit

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-warns-of-more-bank-loan-losses-reuters_molt-0fe8f45c7453.html?x=0

ECB warns of more bank loan losses
Topics:Economic newsEuropeCurrencies
Krista Hughes and Paul Day,
18:52, Monday 31 May 2010
FRANKFURT/MADRID (Reuters) - The European Central Bank warned on Monday that euro zone banks face up to 195 billion euros (165 billion pounds) in a "second wave" of potential loan losses over the next 18 months due to the financial crisis, and disclosed it had increased purchases of euro zone government bonds.

The 2nd leg begins in earnest tomorrow perhaps? Might spark things up a bit as its been a tad dull on here lately.

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-warns-of-more-bank-loan-losses-reuters_molt-0fe8f45c7453.html?x=0

ECB warns of more bank loan losses
Topics:Economic newsEuropeCurrencies
Krista Hughes and Paul Day,
18:52, Monday 31 May 2010
FRANKFURT/MADRID (Reuters) - The European Central Bank warned on Monday that euro zone banks face up to 195 billion euros (165 billion pounds) in a "second wave" of potential loan losses over the next 18 months due to the financial crisis, and disclosed it had increased purchases of euro zone government bonds.

The 2nd leg begins in earnest tomorrow perhaps? Might spark things up a bit as its been a tad dull on here lately.

Don't worry Realistbear! It will get very exciting just when everyone thinks it's gone calm. That's when a market strike happens. The loans which have gone bad are probably commercial loans which cannot be refinanced as they are under water already and exceed the property value. These have not been disclosed in the press, but I have reliable info that they are at boiling point here and in the USA. Banks will be failing again soon. Therew are two here which are very much in trouble in my view. Don't think the govt stakes will be up to much. The great crash has already started; it's just that some peple have not yet noticed the signs - banks stopping lending to each other again, money supply shrinking in many countries, consumer spending weak, public spending cuts, unemployment edging on the upside, volatile markets fretting at every bit of negative news, Spain going bad - oh I could go on!

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Don't worry Realistbear! It will get very exciting just when everyone thinks it's gone calm.

That's precisely what happened in the weeks before 911; the news was suspiciously quiet.

Edited by Dave Spart

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Panzner sums it upo with this piece

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2010/05/the-hollywood-set-recovery.html

'Many in the mainstream media keep referring to "recovery" as though it is an incontrovertible fact. But to me, the notion that the U.S. economy is on the mend is like a Hollywood set, comprised of realistic-looking facades that are, on closer inspection, empty shells.'

'

That is how I see it. We have not even seen a hpc here yet and all those billions invested in non-productive houses and flats.

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frack me!

jeez....shock horror....sfunny, but the regulator of banks, the issuer and overseer of activities....and its all a shock???

frightened the life out of me.

I wish the guardians would stay awake at the helm. and plan maybe for more than 1 hour ahead.

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Panzner sums it upo with this piece

http://www.financial...t-recovery.html

'Many in the mainstream media keep referring to "recovery" as though it is an incontrovertible fact. But to me, the notion that the U.S. economy is on the mend is like a Hollywood set, comprised of realistic-looking facades that are, on closer inspection, empty shells.'

'

There does seem to be a recovery in the US - possibility of unemployment topping out especially. It's based on state intervention sure, but the stimulus is working. Question is will the recovery allow withdrawal of stimulus, or will they be compelled to try and maintain it?

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There does seem to be a recovery in the US - possibility of unemployment topping out especially. It's based on state intervention sure, but the stimulus is working. Question is will the recovery allow withdrawal of stimulus, or will they be compelled to try and maintain it?

I have been watching the housing market in Southern California and the reports are saying that a second wave of attempted selling has hit with orders for new houses being cancelled at the rate of 40%. Due, apparently, to withdrawal of stimulus/tax breaks for house purchases.

IMO we will follow CA as we did in the Great Crash of '89 to '96. They are already down around 45% from the top with another 25% or so to go before a bottom is reached. They did, however, see a slight uptick over the past year due to the government subsidies.

Brown's bail out last year will be wearing thin any time soon which ties in to the ECB warning tonight--lotsa loans about to go bad unless the ECB pumps in more cash or busy the bad loans from the banks. Problem is the bad loans are undoubtedly to be measured not in billions but in hundreds of billions.

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The Germans with help (Bric+Turkey) will clean up the Eurozone........take time, but they do it. Then with the Anglo-Saxon-Isreal left to wither on the vine i see "broad sunlite uplands".

UK will be stuffed !

Bring it on!!!

Mike

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There does seem to be a recovery in the US - possibility of unemployment topping out especially. It's based on state intervention sure, but the stimulus is working. Question is will the recovery allow withdrawal of stimulus, or will they be compelled to try and maintain it?

Here's a NYT 'recommended' article from today. The time for support could be drawing to an end. It could soon be time for the pain. I do hope he is correct and it's becoming a more widely accepted policy. It's essential for any real recovery.

And by doing the right thing, by applying the lessons learned from the 1930s, they managed to limit the damage: It was terrible, but it wasn't a second Great Depression.

Now, however, demands that governments switch from supporting their economies to punishing them have been proliferating in op-eds, speeches and reports from international organizations. Indeed, the idea that what depressed economies really need is even more suffering seems to be the new conventional wisdom, which John Kenneth Galbraith famously defined as "the ideas which are esteemed at any time for their acceptability."

http://www.nytimes.c...man.html?src=tp

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There does seem to be a recovery in the US

No. There is no recovery. 40 million people are on food stamps in the USA - an all time record.

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No. There is no recovery. 40 million people are on food stamps in the USA - an all time record.

well, lets look at the plus side, the new currency is well on the way to full circulation.

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18:53 memo: Don't say anything that will damage the recovereh!

They want the markets down now?

…We make the rules, pal. The news, war, peace, famine, upheaval, the price per paper clip. We pick that rabbit out of the hat while everybody sits out there wondering how the hell we did it. Now you’re not naive enough to think we’re living in a democracy, are you Buddy? It’s the free market. And you’re a part of it. You’ve got that killer instinct. Stick around pal, I’ve still got a lot to teach you.”

Gordon Gekko.

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Its all pointing to CGNAO -sized

DEFLATION

Even the NYT are ramping it--justifiable IMO:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/31/business/global/31deflation.html?ref=business

.../

The central bank’s doubters grew louder after it made a big show of taking measures to cancel out the supposed inflationary impact of the government bond purchases it began on May 10 to help keep Greece and several other euro zone countries from defaulting on their debts.
“It’s nuts: how can they be concerned about the inflationary impact of this?” said Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist of High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y. “If I were the head of the E.C.B., I would be printing money to avert the decline in the money supply.”
Many economists regard deflation as more dangerous than inflation, because it prompts consumers to delay purchases as they wait for lower prices, creating a downward spiral of lower demand and production. Deflation is also bad for debtors like Greece, because they may have to pay back money that would be worth more than it was when they borrowed it.
Economists like Mr. Weinberg — and a few policy makers as well — are beginning to worry that a danger of deflation in Europe, similar to the one that strangled Japanese growth for most of the 1990s, is a bigger threat than inflation.
Prices fell in Ireland in April, while inflation was below 1 percent in five other euro zone countries. The problem also extends outside the euro zone.

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Won't a warning like this only result in the yellow metal going higher?

Its a deflation warning. Just like the US phenomena--M3 is drying up. 30 years on and another big gold crash beckons. Stay clear, take your profits if you have made any and go to cash (not the Euro or Sterling though!).

Check out the NYT post--deflation is all the rage now. Inflation is just so, like, totally last year.

Hope things spark up a bit more tomorrow as HPC is getting a bit tired again. :(

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Its a deflation warning. Just like the US phenomena--M3 is drying up. 30 years on and another big gold crash beckons. Stay clear, take your profits if you have made any and go to cash (not the Euro or Sterling though!).

Check out the NYT post--deflation is all the rage now. Inflation is just so, like, totally last year.

Hope things spark up a bit more tomorrow as HPC is getting a bit tired again. :(

Could it be that all this Deflation ramping by the press is just another excuse to get the printing presses on full steam again?

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Could it be that all this Deflation ramping by the press is just another excuse to get the printing presses on full steam again?

Could be but then again so far the printing has achieved relatively little. Stock markets are losing value again, the blackhole is sucking in all the cash they are printing.

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The Germans with help (Bric+Turkey) will clean up the Eurozone........take time, but they do it. Then with the Anglo-Saxon-Isreal left to wither on the vine i see "broad sunlite uplands".

UK will be stuffed !

Bring it on!!!

Mike

Yeah and the Third Reich was going to last a thousand years

The Euro is finished

Bring it on!!!

Game Over

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No. There is no recovery. 40 million people are on food stamps in the USA - an all time record.

The stimuli are coming to an end. The result of trillions being pumped in is that the economy has failed to recover significantly. The measure of money supply M3 in the USA has turned about now showing a shrinkage AT A RATE NOT SEEN SINCE 1931. What are they going to do about that? Their bail outs have actually failed already. Many places are again showing house price falls. Unemployment has been stubborn and is hovering at a rate higher tha forecast at this time in the USA. They are scared sh...ess in that FED. They know not what to do next coz there ain't no levers left to pull except gross money printing and the presses are very tired.

The slight signs of recovery in some data are only there from the bail out printing press. It is about to dry up.

1 IN 8 ADULTS, 1 IN 4 KIDS ARE ON FOOD STAMPS IN THE USA. There are rather alot of people on something here, be it benefits or tax credits.

Edited by plummet expert

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The stimuli are coming to an end. The result of trillions being pumped in is that the economy has failed to recover significantly. The measure of money supply M3 in the USA has turned about now showing a shrinkage AT A RATE NOT SEEN SINCE 1931. What are they going to do about that? Their bail outs have actually failed already. Many places are again showing house price falls. Unemployment has been stubborn and is hovering at a rate higher tha forecast at this time in the USA. They are scared sh...ess in that FED. They know not what to do next coz there ain't no levers left to pull except gross money printing and the presses are very tired.

The slight signs of recovery in some data are only there from the bail out printing press. It is about to dry up.

Are they really scared or have tey simply used the time to ensure that everyone 'in the club' - bw ankers, politicians - have a big nice financial cushion, various properties - some with lots of land in nice defenable places like Montanna, etc, a big wad of cash in several banks and, of course, some precious metals under the floorboards.

Call me paranoid... but, hey, only a moronic bw anker would try and cure a debt problem with more debt... unless they knew there was no solution and they were simply buying time?

The Masked 'Fox Mulder' Tulip.

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There is a solution. Debt forgiveness. That's debt forgiveness after they leave the Euro which they'll announce this month or sooner if the idea of them leaving creates too much instability. Spain has taken its medicine. Next Italy has to take some medicine since Germany and France won't bail them out.

Edited by fallingbuzzard

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Guest Steve Cook

Are they really scared or have tey simply used the time to ensure that everyone 'in the club' - bw ankers, politicians - have a big nice financial cushion, various properties - some with lots of land in nice defenable places like Montanna, etc, a big wad of cash in several banks and, of course, some precious metals under the floorboards.

Call me paranoid... but, hey, only a moronic bw anker would try and cure a debt problem with more debt... unless they knew there was no solution and they were simply buying time?

The Masked 'Fox Mulder' Tulip.

This is exactly what they are doing as there is indeed no solution MT.

The financial and monetary shenanigans of the last two years don't get rid of the losses. They simply determine who picks up the tab for those losses.

Edited by Steve Cook

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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