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tonyg1234

House Price Indices - Why Up?

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Hi

I don't come on here much so forgive me if this has already been done.

Is the reason why the house price indices are showing average house price rises over the year simply that FTBs are not in the market so houses higher up the chain are the ones being sold, which skews the average price?

Is this it or do they adjust the figures to take account of house size when working out the average?

Thanks in advance.

Tony

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Hi

I don't come on here much so forgive me if this has already been done.

Is the reason why the house price indices are showing average house price rises over the year simply that FTBs are not in the market so houses higher up the chain are the ones being sold, which skews the average price?

Is this it or do they adjust the figures to take account of house size when working out the average?

Thanks in advance.

Tony

I think that is basically it.

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also some indices are ASKING prices, so if typical ACTUAL sales price is say 250k, asking may be 300k, and next door decide theirs is better so must be worth 320k, so prices have risen from 300k to 320k. eventually the asking prices fall say, to 260k, but the indices only take into account the 300k and 320k figures not the 260k figure. even if they both drop asking prices to 240k, the asking price index will use the initial asking prices of 300k and 320k.

think also very little is selling... however in certain parts of London market is very bouyant with peak prices being acheived.

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Hi

I don't come on here much so forgive me if this has already been done.

Is the reason why the house price indices are showing average house price rises over the year simply that FTBs are not in the market so houses higher up the chain are the ones being sold, which skews the average price?

Is this it or do they adjust the figures to take account of house size when working out the average?

Thanks in advance.

Tony

you have seen a typical bull trap in the last year. a small blip in a negative direction of the trend ...

it is over now. LandRegistry and Halifax are already negative. Nationwide will join this week or next month ...

RightMove or any other indexes are irrelevant ....

watch the trend, it is your friend ....

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Hi

I don't come on here much so forgive me if this has already been done.

Is the reason why the house price indices are showing average house price rises over the year simply that FTBs are not in the market so houses higher up the chain are the ones being sold, which skews the average price?

Is this it or do they adjust the figures to take account of house size when working out the average?

Most indices are normalised to take this kind of variation into account.

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Hi

I don't come on here much so forgive me if this has already been done.

Is the reason why the house price indices are showing average house price rises over the year simply that FTBs are not in the market so houses higher up the chain are the ones being sold, which skews the average price?

Is this it or do they adjust the figures to take account of house size when working out the average?

Thanks in advance.

Tony

That, in a nutshell, is precisely correct.

The LR data misses real data as it fails to take into account the cost of recent improvements and forced (auction) sales which are prolific.

RM data is simply "asking prices" and optimism remains in the marketplace.

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33f8eoh.png

But are they? And if they are, how did it happen and is it done properly?

Presumably, nobody took the current situation fully into account when they set these statistical systems up and none of the indexers release full data on how they're compiled so it's hard to be certain.

Basically, lies, damned lies and statistics, as the old saying goes.

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That, in a nutshell, is precisely correct.

The LR data misses real data as it fails to take into account the cost of recent improvements and forced (auction) sales which are prolific.

The Land Registry includes auction sales provided they are not repossessions. There are many reasons for going to auction.

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Most indices are normalised to take this kind of variation into account.

Do you think they are 'normalised' for this....

TOMMay2010.gif

No neither do I.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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