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moonriver

Uk House Prices Still Going Up According To..

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On BBC radio this morning they firstly told us the "good" news, that according to Hometrack's latest survey, there has been a monthly hpi of 0.2%.

They then went on to mention that according to Rightmove, there had been a sharp increase in new properties coming onto the market. They said this was due to the HIP's being ditched.

However, from what I have seen in the areas I have been watching, I think increase in supply started long before HIP's was abandoned.

I checked on Hometrack's site, and they must of been refering to figures released in their article dated 26 April 2010. This makes me wonder if they are giving this Hometrack survey news coverage today, because the new Nationwide/Haliax figures out later this week, are now due to show a decrease in house prices? :unsure:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-analysis/house-price-survey/20100426.cfm

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Uk House Prices Still Going Up

Yawn

Strange isn't it? - We never think of bricks tiles wood & glass as having momentum :rolleyes:

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can't get edit to work, but just found this article on Bloomberg.

Hometrack must of released new figures for May (which surprises me because the month of May is not even out yet), but have not yet put them on their site. So these must be the figures BBC are referring to.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=a2iAxMyRvg6Y

U.K. House Prices Rise 0.2% in May as Low Supply Boosts Values

May 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house values rose in May for the 10th month as a shortage of properties for sale allowed real- estate agents to raise prices, Hometrack Ltd. said.

The average price of a home in England and Wales increased 0.2 percent from April to 158,700 pounds ($229,600), the London- based property researcher said in a monthly report published today. Prices rose 2 percent from a year earlier.

Plans by Prime Minister David Cameron’s new coalition government to seek 6.2 billion pounds in spending cuts this year undermined consumer confidence in May. Concern that an emergency budget this month will worsen households’ finances may keep housing activity “subdued,” Hometrack said.

“Low turnover looks set to remain the dominant feature of the market,” Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, said in the report. That will “sustain the scarcity of housing for sale and continue to act as a support to prices.”

Home-price increases are being sustained by values rising in less than a fifth of the 2,300 postal districts in England and Wales, with most of those being in the south, including London, Hometrack said. Across the remaining areas, transaction levels “remain low,” with prices neither rising nor falling, it said.

Hometrack said the “greatest threats” to the housing market are higher interest rates and a proposed increase in capital-gains tax. It also highlighted the impact on price- growth from a possible increase in the supply of properties.

Mortgage Demand

U.K. mortgage approvals fell in April to the lowest since May last year as tighter credit conditions curbed demand from first-time buyers, the Bank of England said on May 21, citing preliminary data.

“The reality is that today’s housing market is transacting on sales supported by buyers with either no mortgage or a relatively small mortgage,” Donnell said. “First-time buyers and mortgage-constrained households face continued problems accessing or climbing the property ladder.”

New buyers registering with real-estate agents to browse properties rose 0.5 percent this month, compared with an average of 4.2 percent in the quarter through April, Hometrack said. The supply of homes for sale rose by 1.8 percent in May, compared with an average monthly gain of 4.6 percent in the previous three months.

Growth in activity levels historically drops from an annual peak in February as the housing market’s busy selling season in the spring wanes.

Hometrack surveyed 5,192 individual agents and surveyors at 1,501 companies for its May report.

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The situation on the ground suggest otherwise. I am in the Brighton area and know of several cases where friends have had to drop prices significantly and still no offers. The buyers smell blood and they know the economy can no longer sustain Brown's bubble. Austerity packages in the form of higher taxes, mass layoffs and rising IR to protect sterling and the realties of the bond market do not support HPI--the reverse in fact.

The news that suggests prices are rising is lacking credibility.

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The situation on the ground suggest otherwise. I am in the Brighton area and know of several cases where friends have had to drop prices significantly and still no offers.

The news that suggests prices are rising is lacking credibility.

I see the same situation locally here too.

Many of my neighbours have their houses up for sale, and some have still had no viewers, despite price drops.

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It's all rubbish. They are going down round here. Price cuts on all sectors and the most on more expensive properties. The only property goping up is very central London. being fuelled by foreign investors on the back of a cheaper pound.

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so hometrack surveys estate agents for it's data 'Hometrack surveyed 5,192 individual agents and surveyors at 1,501 companies for its May report.'

that makes it pretty much a useless report IMO.

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It's all rubbish. They are going down round here. Price cuts on all sectors and the most on more expensive properties. The only property goping up is very central London. being fuelled by foreign investors on the back of a cheaper pound.

'Home-price increases are being sustained by values rising in less than a fifth of the 2,300 postal districts in England and Wales, with most of those being in the south, including London, Hometrack said. Across the remaining areas, transaction levels “remain low,” with prices neither rising nor falling, it said.'

prices are only rising in 20% of the UK. Mainly central London I would say. Certainly not Essex!

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Sounds like cherry picking to me!

Cherry picking is the act of pointing at individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position.

Cherry picking can refer to the selection of data or data sets so a study or survey will give desired, predictable results which may be misleading or even completely contrary to actuality.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking

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I was about to plough in with my usual "bloody BBC reporting HPI as good news" line but I thought I would go to source.

Peston's (somebody who came across as very switched on when I heard him speak last year) blog is far more balanced:

A coalition housing crash?

Because for those sitting on significant capital gains above the tax free rate of £10,100, it becomes rational to flog properties pronto - to take advantage of the 18% rate and avoid a tax rate that looks set for most property investors to rise to more than double that.

In a housing market that is still weak, a wave of panicky sales could push down prices in a significant way.

Perhaps that doesn't matter. Certainly, if you are yet to buy your first home and feel priced out of the market, you'll say hooray if prices fall.

But the Treasury is only too aware of the inextricable link between the health of our big banks and conditions in the housing market.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/05/a_coalition_housing_crash.html

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I was about to plough in with my usual "bloody BBC reporting HPI as good news" line but I thought I would go to source.

Peston's (somebody who came across as very switched on when I heard him speak last year) blog is far more balanced:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/05/a_coalition_housing_crash.html

Has Peston ever bought or sold a house?

Even if you decided to bu a house today there is no way that a solicitor would complete and exchange on it before June 22nd.

Even if you agreed a price today a buyer could find themselves, for example, discovering that stamp duty goes up on budget day and find themselves locked in a contract where they pay the agreed price for the house and then get hit by a double whammy of an increase in stamp duty. So, as a buyer, you now wait... but if you wait the budget comes along, no increase in CGT and all the panicky sellers stop selling.

Btw, I am not seeing any sign of panicky sellers - heard a few anecdotals but there is no flood to the market of properties yet.

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The survey is from asking ESTATE AGENTS. Ask an estate agent what is happening now, they will say prices are soaring and there is a shortage of stock as everything is flying off the shelves, never been so busy, sealed bids have made a comeback and gazumping is back wth a vengence.

And the ultimate irony is that EA ramping is what causes people to set prices too optimistically, which means houses sit on the market, which means turnover remains low, which means EAs don't make any money because it's better to sell 10 houses for £100k than 5 for 150k.

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And the ultimate irony is that EA ramping is what causes people to set prices too optimistically, which means houses sit on the market, which means turnover remains low, which means EAs don't make any money because it's better to sell 10 houses for £100k than 5 for 150k.

+1

not too clever are they really...

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Like I've said before. The property types that I watch (in W Cornwall) are not selling and only going down in price.

The supply side is rubbish too - I get excited whenever a house that I would consider living in comes on the market regardless of the price!

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Has Peston ever bought or sold a house?

Even if you decided to bu a house today there is no way that a solicitor would complete and exchange on it before June 22nd.

Even if you agreed a price today a buyer could find themselves, for example, discovering that stamp duty goes up on budget day and find themselves locked in a contract where they pay the agreed price for the house and then get hit by a double whammy of an increase in stamp duty. So, as a buyer, you now wait... but if you wait the budget comes along, no increase in CGT and all the panicky sellers stop selling.

Btw, I am not seeing any sign of panicky sellers - heard a few anecdotals but there is no flood to the market of properties yet.

It seems quite unlikely that any changes in capital gains tax will come into force immediately. If they did, it would break decades of precedence but, more importantly, make the inland revenue's job of collecting it for the 2010 tax year almost impossible - the system isn't set up for situations where one part of the year is taxed in one way and the rest in another (just think of all the forms and computer systems that would need to be changed). Stamp duty, VAT and all the other stuff collected at source on the other hand can be changed immediately.

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Btw, I am not seeing any sign of panicky sellers - heard a few anecdotals but there is no flood to the market of properties yet.

For the reason you stated.

If the change is going to happen on budget day you aren't going to get a sale through in time, even if you "price to sell".

But if the announcement is that the rate is going to change from next April you can wait until you know this before deciding to sell.

My money's on tapering being re-introduced and no rush to sell.

tim

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just reading through the hometrack website and these people were predicting prices to rise 1% during 2008.

House Prices Forecast To Still Rise 1% in 2008

29 November 2007

But a lack of supply will provide a support to pricing...

The next 12 to 18 months will be characterised by a general lack of housing for sale which in turn will provide a support to prices. This is a trend that we expect to continue for the next 12 months.

Edited by Pent Up FTBer

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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