Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Snugglybear

2Nd Leg Down?

Recommended Posts

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/30/financial-crisis-again

From the Observer today.

A worldwide financial crisis couldn't happen again. Could it?

Optimists see economies shaking off recession and corporate results improving. But pessimists see a growing debt crisis and a new slump that the world would be powerless to halt

The article is a bit long to quote in full, but interesting. Some of the language is colourful, too - 'We have cocked up the macroeconomic situation big-time', 'markets are headed for a "big puke" '

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/30/financial-crisis-again

From the Observer today.

The article is a bit long to quote in full, but interesting. Some of the language is colourful, too - 'We have cocked up the macroeconomic situation big-time', 'markets are headed for a "big puke" '

nature

free markets work

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/30/financial-crisis-again

From the Observer today.

The article is a bit long to quote in full, but interesting. Some of the language is colourful, too - 'We have cocked up the macroeconomic situation big-time', 'markets are headed for a "big puke" '

There are definitely two camps in this world. I am on the 'second leg down camp' and not the 'recovery will deal with sovereign debt' camp. The current efforts are just papering over the cracks and will all fail within 12 months. Once you have impossible debts then consequences follow, even where you put it off by various strategies.

The nervousness in markets is quite acute. Banks have stopped borrowing from each other again, the money supply M3 in the USA is shrinking at the same rate as in 1931, and all the charts are alarmingly like 1931. It is a dead cat bounce.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are definitely two camps in this world. I am on the 'second leg down camp' and not the 'recovery will deal with sovereign debt' camp. The current efforts are just papering over the cracks and will all fail within 12 months. Once you have impossible debts then consequences follow, even where you put it off by various strategies.

The nervousness in markets is quite acute. Banks have stopped borrowing from each other again, the money supply M3 in the USA is shrinking at the same rate as in 1931, and all the charts are alarmingly like 1931. It is a dead cat bounce.

Agreed, you should be on Newsnight some evening, put the fear into the muppets who think we can scrape by and have 2007 over again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed, you should be on Newsnight some evening, put the fear into the muppets who think we can scrape by and have 2007 over again.

I like this

FIG2-15.gif

its very simplistic and encapsulates bear markets (collapsing bubbles perfectly), its what has allowed me to understand the last 18 months as being a very neccesary part of a perfectly forming bear market rather than something unusual.

We have pretty much had the entre and are getting ready for the main course in my view which will last multiyear and contain the worst of the bear market because it is in this next stage that fear and capitulation happens.

Id imagine the mainstream will cotton on halfway down C (when FTSE falls sub 3500 again next year ). And they will start wearing end of the world sandwich boards at the bottom of C, when one should be getting as bullish as they actually were in 2007. We are likely about to enter a very destructive phase from both an economic and social perspective

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like this

FIG2-15.gif

its very simplistic and encapsulates bear markets (collapsing bubbles perfectly), its what has allowed me to understand the last 18 months as being a very neccesary part of a perfectly forming bear market rather than something unusual.

We have pretty much had the entre and are getting ready for the main course in my view which will last multiyear and contain the worst of the bear market because it is in this next stage that fear and capitulation happens.

Id imagine the mainstream will cotton on halfway down C (when FTSE falls sub 3500 again next year ). And they will start wearing end of the world sandwich boards at the bottom of C, when one should be getting as bullish as they actually were in 2007. We are likely about to enter a very destructive phase from both an economic and social perspective

Exactly! This is what will happen. I would be happy to go on Newsnight anytime. Doubt I'll be invited though! The graph for property prices now is following the shape of 1989-91 chart perfectly. It was after a small up from 1990-1 when Ea's and others declared the property slump over, just as the second leg down was about to arrive. The second leg is the strong down and it's coming! Wish I could have been on Question time last week aswell. Some very misinformed comments being made.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Id imagine the mainstream will cotton on halfway down C (when FTSE falls sub 3500 again next year ). And they will start wearing end of the world sandwich boards at the bottom of C, when one should be getting as bullish as they actually were in 2007. We are likely about to enter a very destructive phase from both an economic and social perspective

Are you expecting a quick recovery at the bottom of C?

I would have thought it will flatline for years, do you think differently?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.