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Blue Nose Bear

Emergency Budget

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Can't help noticing that the media and the majority of HPC threads lately, are totally absorbed with the CGT rise and to a lesser extent any upcoming changes to VAT.

Both these, as targets to increase revenue have been known about for ages, but are these really going to cut the mustard and keep the wolves at bay, I have my doubts.

The EU countries facing similar issues are cutting public sector wages by up to 25%, slashing spending and raising taxes leading to civil unrest.

Do we really think that tinkering with CGT and putting VAT up by a couple of percent is going to do it?

IMHO I think these two issues are being hyped out of all proportion, they will happen of course, but to think there are any choices like leave CGT alone and do something else instead is showing a real lack of understanding of the shit we are in.

They are of course keeping us occupied while the list of cuts and tax rises is put together for 22.06, but I think they will be non issues once the scale of what needs to be done is realised.

So to those who think the worst impact on them personnaly is going to be the changes to CGT or VAT, believe me you ain't seen nothing yet.

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For the cretinous 88%-ish who voted at the General Election for the three biggest parties in spite of knowing they were rammed with Parliamentary crooks I will have little sympathy because like Greeks, etc, they chose to elect shysters who will bleed them dry rather than tell their bankster bosses to feck off.

For those who might read this that aren't comatose, get yourself some gold into your hands to mitigate the effects of what's coming.

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And you know in the UK we would never in a million years give a 25% or even a 10% cut to government workers across the board. We would fire frontline workers by the hundreds of thousands and give performance bonuses to the upper managers for hitting targets.

If we truly had to cut the budget by £90 billion as I have read some estimates here, that works out to 1.8 million people who make £50k a year. That would mean basically a 1.8 million rise in unemployment as we've seen in Europe the private sector is not creating net new jobs to pick up the unemployed.

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.... showing a real lack of understanding of the shit we are in.

...

There you have it. The media have been banging on about how crap Brown was and how much he overspent and now they are banging on about a p1ss-ant tax rise that only affects a handful of rich people. The fact is if the masses realised the "sh1t we're in" they would panic. If they panic they stop spending, if they stop spending then the deflationary spiral everyone fears would come into reality. Much better to invent stories about inflation so people buy more property as a hedge against the coming Zimbabwe-Weimar wheelbarrow of tenners to buy a cuppa. Much better to keep banging on about the 200Bn QE as if it were a lot of money as opposed to a p1ss in the ocean, compared to what the banks lost.

Reading the online papers this morning the house market is "booming" again due to the scrapping of a hundred quid brochure that you didn't need to pay for until you sold, or if you look at a different part of the website the massive increase in new property listings is people panicking to save a few quid before the evil CGT rises brought in by our new communist government, intent on soaking the rich until the pips squeak.

Still you mustn't blame the bankers eh? They are a bit thick after all. Rich ex-banker David Laws didn't realise the bloke he shares a toothbrush with is not his partner as they didn't have a joint bank account. Bless...

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Guest KingCharles1st

They should start wit the BBC- get rid of Raymond fu-cking Snoddy- that would save around 1 mill.

Then get rid of most of the other fu-ckers- that would save around 50 bill. I should reckon

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Because we live in a sham democracy?

DC knows he has to face an election in 2015, you sack 2 million public sector types you get 2 million less voters and knock on effects of their families.

This isn't like starship troopers where those who are doing their government service are actually excluded from voting.

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Democracy is sort of a fairweather ideology. As long as things are on moving upwards and no serious reforms need to be made it works well. As soon as serious deep societal reforms are needed democracy fails.

We talk about democracy as this eternal ideology because that is how it is taught in school. But in reality most of western europe has been democratic for about 60 years.. some like Germany not even that long. Honestly communism in eastern europe managed to last 70 years before it broke down.

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Democracy is sort of a fairweather ideology. As long as things are on moving upwards and no serious reforms need to be made it works well. As soon as serious deep societal reforms are needed democracy fails.

We talk about democracy as this eternal ideology because that is how it is taught in school. But in reality most of western europe has been democratic for about 60 years.. some like Germany not even that long. Honestly communism in eastern europe managed to last 70 years before it broke down.

It is the same everywhere though in PRC China after living standards increased massively due a change of tact there was huge support for the CCP, now living standards are falling and the housing bubbles are incredible (200 times earnings) factory workers are exploited and killing themselves with graduates having to shovel shit to earn a crust all of a sudden the CCP isn't so popular.

Even in Parry's playground with Taksimshinowa their living standards increased massively, yet price fixing of rice affected this and they go all Injin on the government.

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It is the same everywhere though in PRC China after living standards increased massively due a change of tact there was huge support for the CCP, now living standards are falling and the housing bubbles are incredible (200 times earnings) factory workers are exploited and killing themselves with graduates having to shovel shit to earn a crust all of a sudden the CCP isn't so popular.

Even in Parry's playground with Taksimshinowa their living standards increased massively, yet price fixing of rice affected this and they go all Injin on the government.

Chinese leaders are completing the first phase, to build the industrial machinery to provide a first world standard of living. Now the second part is increasing wages to match the production. Chinese people are right to demand their fair share of the new pie. Of course you can imagine the political resistance to this amongst the elites.

The thing is with the concentration of power I think the Chinese government can pull it off. The standing committee doesn't really answer to the elites like the bankers, media or business owners. The bankers and media actually outright work for them.

The dictatorship has to deliver increasing standard of living to the people or they will get angry and revolt. Whereas in a democracy the worst case is the people get mad and vote in the opposition party.

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Can't help noticing that the media and the majority of HPC threads lately, are totally absorbed with the CGT rise and to a lesser extent any upcoming changes to VAT.

Both these, as targets to increase revenue have been known about for ages, but are these really going to cut the mustard and keep the wolves at bay, I have my doubts.

The EU countries facing similar issues are cutting public sector wages by up to 25%, slashing spending and raising taxes leading to civil unrest.

Do we really think that tinkering with CGT and putting VAT up by a couple of percent is going to do it?

See attached link (2008/09 figures):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_taxes.svg

Income tax and NIC generate 48% (£260bn) of total tax combined, other big contributors are VAT £84bn (15%) corporation tax £51bn (9%) and council tax + fuel duties about £25bn (5%) each.

Captial gains tax generates about £5bn total annually - about 1% of total tax take.

Assuming a linear relationship then increasing CGT to 40% (with no indexation allowance) might generate an extra £5b and upping VAT to 20% might net you an extra £7bn. In reality the actual tax take would probably be somewhere below £10bn - peanuts compared to a £80bn structual deficit.

So if you're serious about closing the gap through taxes then the only place to look is income tax/NIC - probably concentrating mainly on income tax (£155 billion at the moment)

Now I really can't see how the government can up the income tax tax take by a third - higher rate taxpayers are pretty much maxed out already and you'd need to put 10p on the basic rate to get even close.

So for me the only sensible option is spending cuts equal to about 10% of total spending - which given the level of waste in the system should actually be pretty easy to manage.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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