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Spain Lost Its "aaa" Rate

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I wonder what will be going on behind closed doors to ensure calm on Monday.

Looks like we can expect some soothing statements over the weekend about how this doesn't matter and Europe has a $1tr bailout fund ready to help out and there'll be no debt crisis.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqiS_6hwClPg&pos=1

I wonder how long till its our turn (rubs hands like James Bond Baddie)

Mike

The fact that these sorts of news threads are arriving every week upsetting the markets, tells you something. Our AAA will only survive if the Budget on 22.06 amounts to a convincing plan for the UK to control annual spending and actually reduce the national debt in the medium term. Nothing less will do! That means setting out cuts of at least £60 billion to the annual spend, open to review for more cuts.

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The fact that these sorts of news threads are arriving every week upsetting the markets, tells you something. Our AAA will only survive if the Budget on 22.06 amounts to a convincing plan for the UK to control annual spending and actually reduce the national debt in the medium term. Nothing less will do! That means setting out cuts of at least £60 billion to the annual spend, open to review for more cuts.

Maybe a CGT raise to 40% and VAT to 20% together with the 6B already announced might be enough IMHO. For now anyway.

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Was this downgrade after the European markets closed?

Yep.

Funny how the equity markets are often oblivious to moves in credit spreads in the bond markets but plunge when the discredited ratings agencies open their gobs.

Edited by Toilet-Currency

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Well if europe doesn't stich something more convincing togehter by monday all hell is going to break loose.... but the interessting thing is spain is being down graded not becaseu of its debt level or its ability to service its debt or its deficit or the badly planned bailout ..... its been downgraded becasue it has done what the IMF and europe have pretty much demanded a reduced its deficit by 12.5 bn euros... the issue for the ratings agency is that they think this will damage growth and its for that reason alone they have downgraded,,,, so if you have too much debt and do nothing about it like greece you get downgraded but if have a trillion euro rescue package behind you, a manageable debt level and take your medicine and start heavy cuts.... well it appears you still get downgraded....... on that basis there are a huge amount of downgrade notices winging their way to a govt near you anytime soon.

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Guest The Relaxation Suite

Maybe a CGT raise to 40% and VAT to 20% together with the 6B already announced might be enough IMHO. For now anyway.

I'm not sure it will be enough. With annual additional debt of 160 billion, a cut to 154 billion is not a serious attempt at control. It's not even 10% off the amount added to the debt every year. But I don't have the first idea about how the ratings agencies work. Seems to me though I would be looking at cuts of more like 30% to show serious intent - 48 billion per year - in conjunction with tax increases, which need to be reorganised carefully so as not to stifle growth. CGT on second homes could go to the moon for all I care - and should - as housing is not something that should be encouraged as a profit-making venture, but CGT on share ownership should be reduced.

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The fact that these sorts of news threads are arriving every week upsetting the markets, tells you something. Our AAA will only survive if the Budget on 22.06 amounts to a convincing plan for the UK to control annual spending and actually reduce the national debt in the medium term. Nothing less will do! That means setting out cuts of at least £60 billion to the annual spend, open to review for more cuts.

They are damned if they do something and damned if they don't.

If they make severe cuts we are back to the childish 'nasty tories' headlines. It they dont cut enough we will loose our rating then we will get acres of news spread telling us that Labour's plan of borrowing our way out of recession was the only answer.

Mr Cameron has inherited a poisoned crown, and Brown and Blair will surely be laughing into their coffee every morning as they know they are going to dodge the blame and emerge smelling of roses.

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Guest The Relaxation Suite

Brown and Blair will surely be laughing into their coffee every morning as they know they are going to dodge the blame and emerge smelling of roses.

I don't think so. History will be perfectly clear about Blair and Brown and what they did to the British economy. Blair might be enjoying a bizarre rock star ex-president lifestyle right now, but to future generations he will be recorded as the man who broke the UK apart, wrecked its economy, and stopped an entire generation from being in the stakeholder society. He won't be in the Hitler category, but I'm guessing somewhere around the Marie Antoinette level.

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Guest The Relaxation Suite

should be good for my precious metal holdings

read it and weep RB

Well yes, in the short-term. Long-term is harder to predict but we could be looking at a collapse of asset prices across the board. A lot of serious investors are banking on inflation, but who really knows? It all comes down to psychology now. People are scared and at the point that even given more money they will now hoard it. Deflation is a serious risk at this point, I would argue.

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Maybe a CGT raise to 40% and VAT to 20% together with the 6B already announced might be enough IMHO. For now anyway.

The CGT and VAT teaser stories will pale into insignificance after 22.06 and it will take some time for the majority of the UK to absorb the impact of what austerity will actually mean to them.

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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