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2009 Not A Good Year For Ni

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This is according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders’ report on the housing and mortgage market in Northern Ireland in 2009 and the first quarter of 2010.

In 2009, there were 10,100 loans for house purchase advanced in Northern Ireland, 16% up on 2008.

In the first quarter of 2010, there were 1,000 loans to first-time buyers, down 33% from the preceding three months but up 43% from a year earlier.

Deposit criteria for first-time buyers have eased somewhat in the first three months of 2010, with average deposits at 18% compared with 24% a year earlier.

Please point out the bad news

Above is the full text and apart from the first quarter of 2010 being lower than the last quarter of 2009 (which we all know) it is very good news.

Another example of editors looking for a negative angle, when there clearly is none (in this report).

I am struggling with the 10,000 mortgages in 2009 and wonder are alot of these re-mortgaging.

Edited by BelfastVI

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Personally I'de be interested to see the CML loan historic pattern going back as far as early/mid 2000's, then it would be a better indication of this news piece.

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CML 2009 N Ireland Fact Sheet

2009 housing and mortgage market facts for Northern Ireland Northern Ireland (UK)

(UK in brackets)

Average age of a first-time buyer 28 (28)

Average first-time buyer income £28,968 (£33,000)

Average first-time buyer income multiple 3.26 (3.10)

Average first-time buyer advance £95,349 (£100,135)

Average age of a home mover 37 (40)

Average mover income £40,054 (£46,353)

Average mover income multiple 2.77 (2.77)

Average mover advance £108,642 (£123,000)

% of first-time buyers as a total of all house purchase loans 45% (38%)

Average house price (Source: DCLG) £178,536 (£194,235)

  • In 2009, there were 10,100 loans for house purchase in Northern Ireland, 16% up on the 34-year low of 2008 but still 45% down on 2007.
  • In the first quarter of 2010 there were 2,300 loans for house purchase in Northern Ireland. This was a 26% decline from the previous quarter but 44% up from the first quarter of 2009. A steeper decline was experienced across the UK in the first quarter: down 34% from the previous quarter and the year-on-year increase was similar at 45%. Both Northern Ireland and UK figures are distorted by the unusually high level of lending at the end of last year due to borrowers rushing through their house purchase before the end of the stamp duty holiday.
  • In the first quarter of 2010, the average house price in Northern Ireland was £171,402, a 9% decline from £188,820 in the same period of 2009, and 31% down on the highest point in the third quarter of 2007, just before the financial crisis hit.
  • Average loan-to-value ratios have eased somewhat from the low of 70% seen at the start of the financial crisis, but still remain low historically. The average first-time buyer had a deposit of 18% in the first quarter of 2010,compared with 24% a year earlier.
  • The housing and mortgage markets in Northern Ireland continue to be affected by the economic downturn and mortgage funding constraints, with low volumes of transactions and a steep downward correction in house prices. There have been some recent signs of a slowdown in the rate of decline in the housing market, but the full impact of the recession on the economy and individual homeowners and tenants remains uncertain.

It is a good report, well worth reading (only 2 pages) I have pasted above some of the main points. Whilst they use an average price that is above most other reports they still have this falling.

They place the total sales for 2009 at 10,000, down 45% from the boom high of 18,000 but up 16% from 8,400 sales (requiring mortgages) in 2008. It is strange that they are listing 2,300 mortgages in the first quarter of 2010, whilst the UUJ report only 700 sales. This is something we touched upon in the past.

However a turnover figure of 65% of boom numbers is an industry doing alot better than I thought. We can assume that the numbers during the boom were higher than normal.

Another thing that jumped out was that FTBer's affordability actually decreased from 3.2 to 3.4 x income. Whilst it is disappointing to see this it would have to be accepted that these are both reasonably safe multipliers. Ironically the lowering of this ratio may have been assisted by the lowering deposit requirements, from 24% down to 18%, thus increasing the amount borrowed.

The report also shows that the FTB'er now represents 45% of total purchasers.

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Does the average 28 yr old here really earn 29k?! :blink:

The average civil servant 28 year old in work, I suspect. Even then it would seem unlikely to me.

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Does the average 28 yr old here really earn 29k?! :blink:

The text states the average income is a mixture of single and joint income. So it is a mixture of the two.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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