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I am a bear and I have been posting here for a while. But I am so depressed that what I see on this site has no "bear"ing at all to what I see around here - Hendon in north west London. We are looking at family houses and people here are prepared to pay more than bubble prices, houses selling really quickly for stupid amounts. Feels like 2007 again. All agents now laughing at us (we had change to buy in 2008 when we sold but decided not to) - we totally regret not buying then.

I know this area can't actually be immune, but now when all the bulls seem to be changing their status to bear I am thinking of changing mine to bull. So depressing.

We are lucky in some ways - we can stay in our fantastic rented house for as long as we want and the rent is reasonable, landlord promises he'll never chuck us out.

I just can't see that prices will fall here. Seems to be no shortage of people prepared to pay silly money.

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No just trying to face reality. Sadly. Had detailed chat with local agent today and he confirmed what I thought - lots of sold signs and all at bubble prices.

Mumsnet responses were interesting because quite a lot did think prices going to come down - I'd expect that on here of course.

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I am a bear and I have been posting here for a while. But I am so depressed that what I see on this site has no "bear"ing at all to what I see around here - Hendon in north west London. We are looking at family houses and people here are prepared to pay more than bubble prices, houses selling really quickly for stupid amounts. Feels like 2007 again. All agents now laughing at us

Vile psychological warfare, just over a roof over one's head.

Be patient gb. I trust you have the stash well away from Sterling?

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Vile psychological warfare, just over a roof over one's head.

Be patient gb. I trust you have the stash well away from Sterling?

No thats the problem its in sterling as we needed it handy to buy a house!

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I am a bear and I have been posting here for a while. But I am so depressed that what I see on this site has no "bear"ing at all to what I see around here - Hendon in north west London. We are looking at family houses and people here are prepared to pay more than bubble prices, houses selling really quickly for stupid amounts. Feels like 2007 again. All agents now laughing at us (we had change to buy in 2008 when we sold but decided not to) - we totally regret not buying then.

I know this area can't actually be immune, but now when all the bulls seem to be changing their status to bear I am thinking of changing mine to bull. So depressing.

We are lucky in some ways - we can stay in our fantastic rented house for as long as we want and the rent is reasonable, landlord promises he'll never chuck us out.

I just can't see that prices will fall here. Seems to be no shortage of people prepared to pay silly money.

Bubbles mean the crash is coming. So I'm even more bear now I've read your thoughts. The next one will be big and lasting. Your decision will be vindicated. Ea's will never tell you the market is tanking. If you try to sell they may tell you more about the difficult market ahead. Here in Sussex the sold signs are disappearing fast. The sheer volume of houses coming on the market is starting to pull it down. Fear is entering the economy. London may be last to go into this. So sit tight!

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yes I agree, no HPC here. I am only concern about number of unsold properties and reduction near where I live. I guess it must be some very clever EA 's trying new tricks to prop up property prices :P

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There's an inbuilt tendency for house prices to want to rise, even in difficult times.

Here's why:

1) Most people buy houses because they want to own a home and live in it.

For such people, which is worse....buying in a falling market and seeing the house lose value or not buying in a rising market and being priced out? I'd say the latter.

2)The seller always sets the price and it's up to the vendor to negotiate downwards. If the market worked differently, with first mention of price being an offer by a prospective buyer, it would be easier for prices to fall.

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TBH OP YABU. A couple of MNers who haven't finished their LMP yet, have the POV

that the UCL is up and it's back to OTT HPI. FFS, AFAIK they all have ADHD when it comes to economics IYKWIM.

Get a grip?

AIBU?

HTH.

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Bubbles mean the crash is coming. So I'm even more bear now I've read your thoughts. The next one will be big and lasting. Your decision will be vindicated. Ea's will never tell you the market is tanking. If you try to sell they may tell you more about the difficult market ahead. Here in Sussex the sold signs are disappearing fast. The sheer volume of houses coming on the market is starting to pull it down. Fear is entering the economy. London may be last to go into this. So sit tight!

I hope you are right, tried to say that to estate agent, but he laughed saying the lehman collaspe was a one off never to be repeated and we had our chance..

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TBH OP YABU. A couple of MNers who haven't finished their LMP yet, have the POV

that the UCL is up and it's back to OTT HPI. FFS, AFAIK they all have ADHD when it comes to economics IYKWIM.

Get a grip?

AIBU?

HTH.

WTF

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.....

We are lucky in some ways - we can stay in our fantastic rented house for as long as we want and the rent is reasonable, landlord promises he'll never chuck us out.

.....

Why do you want to buy then?

You're just part of the problem.

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I hope you are right, tried to say that to estate agent, but he laughed saying the lehman collaspe was a one off never to be repeated and we had our chance..

Well, 'he would say that wouldn't he'. The fact is there are banks now struggling with impending implosions on their Commercial property lending. That lending has been as barking and out of control as residential was in the USA, but actually here in the UK. In 2006 I was offered ludicrous loans in 7 figs without any more than a 5 % dep. When its that easy, it's time to leave the party. So many of their loans are 'under water' and some for billions that they cannot be refinanced atall. The news has totally failed to pick up on this yet. But YOU MAY SEE A COUPLE OF SERIOUS BANKS GO UNDER here in the next 12 months. They cannot be fully bailed out as there is no capacity for the Boe to do it in full. There are a number of triggers waiting to cause the next big panic. The Money supply M3 in the US is shrinking rapidly, just as it did in 1932. No printing or borrowing is stopping it apparently. See Telegraph thread on this site. These are all the signs brewing. Falling consumer spending today. A bank in Spain last week. Plenty lurking and one will trigger the big roller coast down. You can be sure there are some very worried people in the city and at the Boe as the risk of another major crash taking down some banks is now very high. EA's are hardly going to consider this with you. Not their role.

As the banana skins are multiplying the chance of crossing the kitchen floor without a slip become remote.

Put your money into several banks and buy some gold and silver on the next down day.

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I just can't see that prices will fall here. Seems to be no shortage of people prepared to pay silly money.

My view is that unsustainable budget deficits are giving the illusion of a global economic recovery - once government spending is reigned in we will see a "double dip" recession, with falling house prices and rising unemployment in most countries.

I put my money where my mouth is, selling my house and as of this month now renting one. I now plan to live in the rented house for the foreseeable future, i.e. at least until prices correct to a more sensible level (which to my mind would be at least 20-25% below where they stand today).

That which is unsustainable will not be sustained. What no-one can guarantee is whether it will be 1 month, 1 year or 10 years before it collapses.

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...YOU MAY SEE A COUPLE OF SERIOUS BANKS GO UNDER....

As well as Northern Rock, RBS and Lloyds/TSB/HBOS/Bradford and Bingley/Cheltenham and Gloucester? I think that only leaves Barclays and HSBC, if they go there's nowt left.

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Isn't paying off a mortgage and then not having to rent a sensible idea?

Not at the minute. Right now its about as dumb an idea as you can have.

I don't see any problem with people wanting to own homes.

Neither do I - I own mine. If I owed money on it I would flog it.

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Neither do I - I own mine. If I owed money on it I would flog it.

Absolutely - and if I had owned mine outright I'd have kept it.

As winkie says, what you don't owe can't worry you. All I can lose by selling my house is 100% of my money. With a mortgage, I could have gone into negative equity and actually lost MORE than 100% of my money.

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Isn't paying off a mortgage and then not having to rent a sensible idea? I don't see any problem with people wanting to own homes.

well, yes and no, you decide.....

Example 1:

For simplicity, let's say you buy a house for £200,000 on a 100% interest only mortgage, there is no inflation, no HPI, and interest rates are fixed at 5%, you will pay £10,000 per year to the bank.

Example 2:

You rent the same house as in example I. If rent less than £10K pa, it's cheaper to rent.

Example 3:

Same house but you buy it cash. No interest paid to the bank, no rent...... BUT, you lose the interest that the £200K would be earning if it were still in the bank, if that's 5% then you're no better or worse off than in example 1, except that you have your money tied up in a house.

There's no free ticket, everyone pays to put a roof over their head.

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am amazed anyone could borrow that amount with such small deposit... what salary multiple was it?

I think s/he was talking about commercial property.

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Absolutely - and if I had owned mine outright I'd have kept it.

As winkie says, what you don't owe can't worry you. All I can lose by selling my house is 100% of my money. With a mortgage, I could have gone into negative equity and actually lost MORE than 100% of my money.

I did own it outright and I didn't keep it.

.

Edited by Bruce Banner

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well, yes and no, you decide.....

Example 1:

For simplicity, let's say you buy a house for £200,000 on a 100% interest only mortgage, there is no inflation, no HPI, and interest rates are fixed at 5%, you will pay £10,000 per year to the bank.

Example 2:

You rent the same house as in example I. If rent less than £10K pa, it's cheaper to rent.

Example 3:

Same house but you buy it cash. No interest paid to the bank, no rent...... BUT, you lose the interest that the £200K would be earning if it were still in the bank, if that's 5% then you're no better or worse off than in example 1, except that you have your money tied up in a house.

There's no free ticket, everyone pays to put a roof over their head.

yes I agree but i have 40% tax leakage on STR fund AND would expect HPI at rate of inflation...

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yes I agree but i have 40% tax leakage on STR fund AND would expect HPI at rate of inflation...

Wouldn't you pay a mortgage, or indeed rent, out of taxed money?

I expect house prices to drop 30 to 40% over the next few years.....

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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