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The FTSE is the funniest thing ive seen in years.

What good news are they basing this massive jump on ?

The DOW has gone up. It was down over 100 points (on top of the 150 point decline after Europe closed yesterday and it closed last night below the physiological DOW 10K) then in the middle of the night the futures bounced by 200 points Asia rallied, Europe rallied, everyone is happy.

They did not do a very good job of sticking a reason as to why the futures bounced but who care rally on boys.

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Have I missed something, whats happening June 2nd?

... from the new FBB podcast ...

June 2nd is not far away.

Having covered my "shorts" (actually, I sold SDS calls) for a nice profit last week.

I went "long" by entering a Bull options position on SPY.

I am now looking to neutralise that using BGZ calls, and maybe more "shorts" today

I wouldnt be surprised to see SPX rally to SPX-1115, and maybe even SPX-1140 within this week.

That may set up a great shorting situation. Fortunately, VIX is getting cheaper now

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Buy buy buy before you miss out!

Too late. I did some buying on Tuesday. Will do more, but not today.

Bear in mind, it's not that shares are rising (some are, some aren't). It's that the £ has been muchly devalued and (now people have started to notice) shares - on average - are holding their value rather better.

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'tis your LAST CHANCE.

Bob Janjuah: Get Liquid Now!

It’s “Caps Lock” time again. Bob ‘The Bear’ Janjuah has followed Monday’s missive, AN ÜBER BEAR EARLY WARNING ALERT, with a tactical update.

And the message is simple – use any bull trap to OFFLOAD risk and get liquid.

Here’s the note, complete and unabridged:

FT Alphaville LINK.

Bob Janjuah == cgnao? :blink:

ED: For emphasis!

Edited by yellerkat
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Bob Janjuah, the uber-hot strategist from RBS, is out with his latest market outlook.

Everything's going to plan, he says, as the market is inevitably headed towards S&P mid-800s.

His note:

Plse refer to my most recent comments, from 24th May, and 26th April. Things are playing out nicely. This is just a 'tactical' update. In my cmmt of the 24th May I set out 2 possible paths for the new bear market we are in, and I want to clarify a little:

1 - 1st, the bigger strategic theme is clear and unchanged - global growth HAS peaked and the deflation trend is clear for the next 3/6mths. This is strategically bullish the USD and USTs (think 1 vs the EURO, and low 2% 10yr yields). And this is strategically BEARISH risk assets (think mid-800s S&P in 3/6mths, and the iTraxx XO index up above 750bps). The strategic asset allocation outlook STRONGLY favours QUALITY as defined by balance sheet strength, balance sheet transparency (which therefore excludes most financials), market position, AND the ability to be a price setter (not taker).

Perhaps what's most interesting are his potential game changers, that could send the market much higher:

The game changers are: A) a massive turnaround in China towards new stimulus & a new credit creation binge etc - for now very unlikely IMHO; B) a massive turnaround in corporate behaviour resulting in a leverage, capex, investment, hiring & spending binge - extremely unlike for now and for the rest of this yr; C) a new US fiscal package (pretty impossible now), so the most likely and only really viable remaining option is a MASSIVE DEBASEMENT/MONETISATION move led by the Fed (but no doubt globally co-coordinated) thru the announcement of a NEW (say) USD5trn QE package, aided/abetted by maybe another USD5trn of funny money printing by the BoE, the ECB, ther BoJ, the PBOC, the SNB etc etc.........HOWEVER, I don't expect this last bullet to be used until things get REAL UGLY (see above para for levels). If u know u have only 1 bullet left in the rifle - and unless you are amazingly stupid - u don't try to shoot the charging grizzly bear when its 50 yards away. No, you wait till its 5/10yards away...WHEN we get this final bullet out of the rifle it had BETTER not miss, as if it 'misses' we would then have the mother of stagflationnary busts in history where bonds get crushed due to debasement, taking risk assets out with them too. If this is the outcome - and this is really I think a late 2010/2011 story - then trust me, 2008 really will seem like the Good Old Days.....lets hope Uncle Ben not only has the rifle ready, but also that his scope is well lined up and that he has been practising hard...

2 - In terms of the shrter term tactical outlook, of the 2 scenarios laid out in my last piece, I now marginally favour the 'bullish June, disastrous July/Aug/Sept/Oct' outcome. This is a marginal call - the KEY trend for H2 2010 is BEARISH and HIGHER VOL - but I do think we can see the S&P (as a global risk proxy) up at 1150/1180 in June. This seems to me to be the next and an excellent place to get short risk/get long deflation. A move above 1180 IS possible but unlikely, with 1220 even more remote. However, I would be inclined to rethink a little the precise tactical timing/routemap IF we can get to and close above 1180 for 3 or so consecutive days. A break below 1020 on S&P would indicate that 800s S&P is coming sooner rather than later, but as mentioned, I think this is now business for JULY onwards, not for June.

It is important not to forget that we now have a pretty cool series of lower lows & lower highs on stks whereby we have taken out the early Feb lows. And if u like this sort of thing, a very powerful and ultimately deeply bearish Head & Shoulders is clear too.

And his final advice.

So there u have it. Expect policymakers, the sell side consensus and the media to be Rah Rah over the next few days & weeks (its already begun). But don't get too sucked in - use any bull trap to OFFLOAD risk/to get liquid. JUNE can be a decent bullish month, but I really do think it is the eye of the storm ahead of a super nasty Q3/early Q4.

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I have two active shares - one in Lloyds which I hope will go back to the point I bought it at... and a short on the FTSE (contradictory, I know...). How on Earth the FTSE is UP I do not know.... in fact I think the rise from the bottom a few years ago back to the top is based on hot air - I look forward to big falls. At least that's what I'd expect to see!

3% down on my FTSE short right now but going to hold this one - glad I didn't buy into the leveraged short, though... maybe when TSHTF. I cannot see the FTSE rising much more, I honestly believe there must be big falls. If not, I'm the worst investor ever lol...

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If not, I'm the worst investor ever lol...

That's a big claim :P

And anyone who shorts the FTSE is a speculator, not an investor.

FWIW, I'm looking to put some more into selected UK assets in the not-too-distant. I've concentrated on everything-but-UK for some time, but now the pound has fallen that looks less attractive.

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Well it doesn't look like the cocaine snorters in the city are sharing our gloomy outlook. The index is up 3% ish today.

Do they know something we don't?

..around black Monday in Oct '87 when the stockmarket crashed ...houses were going HPI ....and continued into '88....especially after that Tory budget in April '88 when they were given a six month boom before the almighty property crash....lasting through to '95'96.......no parallels here so far ...look at present HPC will lead the crash from here once the artificial girders inserted by Gordo at the taxpayers expense... are dismantled..... :rolleyes:

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Well it doesn't look like the cocaine snorters in the city are sharing our gloomy outlook. The index is up 3% ish today.

Do they know something we don't?

They know nothing you don't, but they want to profit on day trades. It's just volatile. One day means nothing. The volatility last time round started in about July/August 2007 and took a few months to end with lots of heavy down days and few on the up. You don't always see a massive fall on one day, 1987 being the exception and the steepest one day fall ever in the UK.

I think it likely there will be a severe decline in various 'shock days' over a few months soon, where the ups are quite weak.

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