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scottbeard

Just Exchanged On My House Sale

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I have avoided this website for the last few months, as I got tired of the pessimism of some posters, who just spread negativity ("we're screwed", "the UK is toast") without actually helping anyone understand UK house prices or the economy. :angry:

However, since I just exchanged contracts on selling my house (in SE England) I thought I would share the stats and my thoughts.

I agreed the purchase price of the house in Jan 2007, and agreed the sale price in Feb 2010. I have contracted to sell it for 1% more than I bought it for, which I guess is around 3% below the peak summer 2007 price.

I now plan to live in my rented house for the forseeable future, i.e. at least until prices correct to a more sensible level (which to my mind would be at least 20-25% below where they stand today).

My view is that unsustainable budget deficits are giving the illusion of a global economic recovery - once government spending is reigned in we will see a "double dip" recession, with falling house prices and rising unemployment in most countries.

This is formed in no small part from reading the Market Ticker http://market-ticker.denninger.net/, which if you didn't already know is an excellent blog where an American called Karl Denninger provides some charts and maths to explain where the global economy is and where it will probably head.

Before I go, I'd also like to quote an example of the over-pessimism here, and an example of why people should not believe everything they read on this site. This I believe was someone's prediction for 2009:

dow 6000 -7000 then the plunge that will kill hope = dow down to a trading range of 1000-2000 american economy in ashes. ftse down to 3000, then will follow the dow to trade at 300-500 range. total wealth destruction. All goverment spending to be cut drastically in the usa and here, all guaranteed pensions scrapped. skeleton council staff here. 401 pensions in the states will be taken over by the goverment, but by then they wil have lost 95% anyway. Nearly all banks will go to the wall. Food shortages will be a big story, countries will close the borders, and set up trade barriers, riots and unrest in many parts of the world. Most of the discussion on this site this time next year will be about food shortages and rising food prices, house's are the least of our worries just surving will be the object.

FTSE at 3000 - close. FTSE at 300 and food shortages? Not even close. Of course hindsight is great, and I'm sure the doom-mongers will tell you that Mad Max has been delayed by evil bankers and/or governments and is - once again - around 6-12 months away. In reality, I think what we will see is closer to the Great Depression - not nice, but remember 75% of people still had a job and they still had sufficient fun to invent the football World Cup in 1930. :lol:

Anyway, best wishes to all the sensible posters out there, who have certainly helped me over the years.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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