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catmandu

Central Belt - Scotland

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Took a walk around hometown today (small town in Central Belt, population around 6000).

Haven't lived here in 15 years and haven't visited in 2 years. There are a huge number of new estates which have been built over the past 10 years but the latest estate getting built has had work suspended. Tools were downed around 2 years ago when I last visited and there is very little work going on on the site now. The only houses still being built are the low-cost ones which I hear all builders are now forced to build. They don't fit in at all on the estate. The completed larger houses stand mostly empty (2-5 sold out of perhaps 15-20 in total). And they've been on the market for around 2 years I believe. Most of the estate is still dirt and rubble - wouldn't be too happy if I'd bought a house in that area. The beginning of several other houses sit forlorn and abandoned until better times return.

Outside the new estate I also spotted several houses which are on sale but abandoned - can only confirm that one is a repo, but the others are likely candidates too.

Almost none of the several estate agents in the town advertise on rightmove which surprised me a little.

This is quite a popular and affluent area, but clearly the housing market is not fully functional around here. I just don't see any reason for expecting increasing house prices when houses lie empty. The builders however are certainly not reducing their prices by any meaningful amount though the gimmicks some of them throw in to try to sell their stock make them look somewhat desperate.

So as usual in a seemingly disfunctional market, the stand-off continues until the real government cuts kick in or IR goes up. Both will be happening soon I suspect.

Anyway, I would at least be very wary of purchasing property for the next 6 months. I intend to rent.

How do the other towns around Scotland compare?

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Took a walk around hometown today (small town in Central Belt, population around 6000).

Haven't lived here in 15 years and haven't visited in 2 years. There are a huge number of new estates which have been built over the past 10 years but the latest estate getting built has had work suspended. Tools were downed around 2 years ago when I last visited and there is very little work going on on the site now. The only houses still being built are the low-cost ones which I hear all builders are now forced to build. They don't fit in at all on the estate. The completed larger houses stand mostly empty (2-5 sold out of perhaps 15-20 in total). And they've been on the market for around 2 years I believe. Most of the estate is still dirt and rubble - wouldn't be too happy if I'd bought a house in that area. The beginning of several other houses sit forlorn and abandoned until better times return.

Outside the new estate I also spotted several houses which are on sale but abandoned - can only confirm that one is a repo, but the others are likely candidates too.

Almost none of the several estate agents in the town advertise on rightmove which surprised me a little.

This is quite a popular and affluent area, but clearly the housing market is not fully functional around here. I just don't see any reason for expecting increasing house prices when houses lie empty. The builders however are certainly not reducing their prices by any meaningful amount though the gimmicks some of them throw in to try to sell their stock make them look somewhat desperate.

So as usual in a seemingly disfunctional market, the stand-off continues until the real government cuts kick in or IR goes up. Both will be happening soon I suspect.

Anyway, I would at least be very wary of purchasing property for the next 6 months. I intend to rent.

How do the other towns around Scotland compare?

My own impression is that new build areas everywhere are struggling to sell and recent new builds (past 5+ yrs) are seeing prices hit the hardest once their "shine" wears off. this is exacerbated by the collapase in the BTL market and this is applicable nationwide IMO. Personally I would never buy new and much prefer established area where you are not paying a premium for guff like feature wallpaper and mood lighting :-)

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My own impression is that new build areas everywhere are struggling to sell and recent new builds (past 5+ yrs) are seeing prices hit the hardest once their "shine" wears off. this is exacerbated by the collapase in the BTL market and this is applicable nationwide IMO. Personally I would never buy new and much prefer established area where you are not paying a premium for guff like feature wallpaper and mood lighting :-)

Certainly makes you think twice about buying 'new' when the houses have been standing for 2 years

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New builds are so wee though! I was in one last weekend for a house party and even though it was a three bed detached I think room for room it was the same size as mums 25 year old 3 bed semi detached. I would have expected fully detached houses to have bigger rooms than semis.

The garden wasn't much bigger either, although it did have a conservatory which is something my mum's semi doesn't have. Did seem a bit of a gimmick though.

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It is difficult to tell what is happening around me. I live in FK2, some houses are selling quickly and others sitting around for months/years. Some people are carrying on as they have always done and others are in a classic Mexican standoff between sellers who won't drop prices and buyers who won't pay over the top. Some newish builds are being sold quickly and others that on the face of it are very similar languish for months. Weird market :unsure:

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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