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urban_hymn

Anyone Shorting Housebuilders

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Anyone got a theory why housebuilder stocks are so strong still? While the FTSE falls, Wimpey, Barratt, Persimmon etc. are rallying.

Shorting housebuilders is definitely a white knuckle ride at the moment.

Calling the top in this sector is less easy than I thought. It is proving an excellent education in trading - but rather more expensive than I would have liked <_<

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Anyone got a theory why housebuilder stocks are so strong still?  While the FTSE falls, Wimpey, Barratt, Persimmon etc. are rallying.

Shorting housebuilders is definitely a white knuckle ride at the moment.

Calling the top in this sector is less easy than I thought.  It is proving an excellent education in trading - but rather more expensive than I would have liked <_<

I shorted BDEV this morning at 715. Very small amount, can afford to lose it all. Just for the fun.

Edited by cgnao

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I always think that you shouldn't short against the general direction of the market - the midcap FTSE 250 index has yet to post any significant falls. Looks like a double top is forming, though.

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I always think that you shouldn't short against the general direction of the market - the midcap FTSE 250 index has yet to post any significant falls. Looks like a double top is forming, though.

I actually thought I was opening my short positions against a backdrop of a FTSE pullback which you, yourself have forecast/called.

So you're saying the 250 is the one to watch before shorting BDEV, WMPY et al.?

My open positions are a sea of red at the moment. I still think shorting housebuilders is a no brainer but it's taking longer to come good than I expected.

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I actually thought I was opening my short positions against a backdrop of a FTSE pullback which you, yourself have forecast/called.

So you're saying the 250 is the one to watch before shorting BDEV, WMPY et al.?

My open positions are a sea of red at the moment.  I still think shorting housebuilders is a no brainer but it's taking longer to come good than I expected.

The 250 doesnt seem to know the meaning of the word "gravity".

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Guest Daddy Bear
Anyone got a theory why housebuilder stocks are so strong still?  While the FTSE falls, Wimpey, Barratt, Persimmon etc. are rallying.

Shorting housebuilders is definitely a white knuckle ride at the moment.

Calling the top in this sector is less easy than I thought.  It is proving an excellent education in trading - but rather more expensive than I would have liked <_<

House builders have huge cash reserves - are still making huge profits as there margins are so great due to house price bubble - even though prices are falling.

There is also alot of speculation on takeover activity e.g. Wimpey and Persimmon.

I got my fingers burnt on persimmon going short just before results and setting a stop loss at there all time peak!! Then watched it fall back . I should have stuck to my long term strategy " These share will all be lower in 9 months time". and held my nerve but I had to close as it went above my risk threshold.

I am in on CWD and Paragon - more volatile and more exposed to quiet market. I will get me some shorts on the builders at a later date when it is clearer that there SP has turned. I am just minimising risk and will drip feed into market over next 6 months.

But am heavily exposed to CWD and have just gone into black after recent falls. May they continue.

P.s after looking at E*trade i thought they were rubbish and preferred my original Spreadbetting firm.

Just because i moved my cash from the tech bubble to BTL and am now moving it to shorting stocks does not make me a troll - i would say an astute speculator, which has allowed me to have a large appetite to risk and high rewards.

Did you short the tech bubble on the way down?

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But it is surprising how long they have kept the dream together.  My shorts were in profit a few weeks ago, but the PSN and Halifax index rises have pushed them back to a loss

Hi Doc. I'm glad you're back, commenting on this again. You appear to have clearly identified what is keeping your housebuilding bets in the red.

I'm about a grand down shorting Wilson Bowden and Wimpey. I wondered if Wimpey were buoyed up by post hurricane rebuilding work?

The trouble with this HPC site is that it puts your mindset too far ahead of the markets. With hindsight I see that I was naive to short without clear evidence of a downtrend.

I will leave money on the table in future and short later rather than sooner next time.

Doc - please keep up your running commentary on housebuilders. I'm sure there are huge opportunities ahead but not yet.

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  • 331 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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