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Bill Gates

By How Much Will House Prices Fall From The Peak?

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over what time frame ? I think it will hit rock bottom eventually ;)

~1% a month over 4years then softly land and hold, meanwhile peakoil kicks in and inflation will do the rest

Edited by Kam

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Guest growl

Over five years 30-35% nationally. With some places (the kind that were undesirable in the first place) up to 45%. I think there will only be a drop of about 10% in the places that are desirable, but where people tend to own their property outright anyhow.

So it will be mixed. But going off the last crash ex council flats in inner cites had the greatest fall.

Also not all ex council is bad. There are good estates and it is these in the last boom and bust that seemed to survive becoming private. The kind of place where there was always a mixture of private and council and where the crime rate was low, and the housing was 2. 3 bedroom with gardens. Now when you look at them 25 years later you would not be able to tell the difference as they have been changed so much.

But the ex council, where the crime rate is high and there was a complete separation between private and council, eg. usually tower blocks of flats. These would not make the transition so well. So even though they may be private now, and may have superficially increased their value. These are the dangerous investments. They will be the first(if it is not already happening) and the furtherest to fall.

I also believe the north will see the fastest fall. As this part of the country usually reaps the rewards of a boom economy the last, but usually falls the fastest.

All of the above is just going off my experience of the last crash...and surprises may well happen.

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Over five years 30-35% nationally. With some places (the kind that were undesirable in the first place) up to 45%. I think there will only be a drop of about 10% in the places that are desirable, but where people tend to own their property outright anyhow.

..Except that a desirable place in one decade can be the opposite a decade later, and vice versa. And many "desirable" places are already over-priced disproportinate to their desirability. So those very place might well drop even further than everywhere else.

VP

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I think it might follow the peak oil curve so I went for an eventual 80% fall. Totally insane I know but its not impossible. Short term I'll go for a more conservative 30-40% fall over 5 years.

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I think it might follow the peak oil curve so I went for an eventual 80% fall. Totally insane I know but its not impossible. Short term I'll go for a more conservative 30-40% fall over 5 years.

I'd Agree with you there, I'd think that there would be sticky points, small rises but mostly falls as different stages kick in,

but thats spread over years,

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Guest growl
..Except that a desirable place in one decade can be the opposite a decade later, and vice versa. And many "desirable" places are already over-priced disproportinate to their desirability. So those very place might well drop even further than everywhere else.

VP

Yes. but I'm thinking of the desirable places where there is not alot of movement anyhow. Where people don't have a mortgage.

Of course one persons definition of desirable can be wildy differnet from anothers.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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