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My Observations For Stock Levels, Chelmsford, Essex

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Here is my observations for the last 10 weeks in Chelmsford Essex. (This area only, Properties above £80k, to filter out the garage and other sh1t)

The horizontal axis is number of weeks. For example '10' is this week, 9 the week before that a so on. Figures are average for the week. Couldn't seem to plot with a proper date on the X axis?

stockj.jpg

As you can see the last month has seen a good surge and this is before any CGT/HIPS effects. Seems similar to most other HPCer observations bar a few.

Needs a larger data sample really but thought it might be of interest.

Thanks to dave spart for posting tip.

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Here is my observations for the last 10 weeks in Chelmsford Essex. (This area only, Properties above £80k, to filter out the garage and other sh1t)

The horizontal axis is number of weeks. For example '10' is this week, 9 the week before that a so on. Figures are average for the week. Couldn't seem to plot with a proper date on the X axis?

stockj.jpg

As you can see the last month has seen a good surge and this is before any CGT/HIPS effects. Seems similar to most other HPCer observations bar a few.

Needs a larger data sample really but thought it might be of interest.

Thanks to dave spart for posting tip.

Good work!

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Based on your data, it looks like there are roughly 20% more houses on the market now than there were at the temporary market trough in 2009.

It will be very interesting to see whether this is enough to push the market lower again. My suspicion is that we are within a few percent of reaching the tipping point but I will have to wait for the data over the next 3 to 6 months to either prove or disprove my suspicion.

Good work on gathering the data. It forms an excellent basis to redraw the supply and demand curves for the market to help understand where the new equilibrium might be.

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Based on your data, it looks like there are roughly 20% more houses on the market now than there were at the temporary market trough in 2009.

The time scale is in weeks. Week one was mid March. There has been a 21% increase since the trough 9 weeks ago.

Stock was increasing gradually up until about 4 weeks ago when it jumps. In theory the increase should accelerate with CGT/HIPS sellers. I'll post an update in about a month. The only problem is if the current rate of increases continue it will be 1000+ whithin weeks and I'll have to alter the search criteria.

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The time scale is in weeks. Week one was mid March. There has been a 21% increase since the trough 9 weeks ago.

Stock was increasing gradually up until about 4 weeks ago when it jumps. In theory the increase should accelerate with CGT/HIPS sellers. I'll post an update in about a month. The only problem is if the current rate of increases continue it will be 1000+ whithin weeks and I'll have to alter the search criteria.

Aplogies. I should have read your OP more carefully.

The fact that your data is in weeks and not months is even more scary for the equity position of people who have implicitly posted their house plus their future earnings as collateral against a mortgage.

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Properties for sale on Rightmove

Figures for St Albans

16 March 616

10 April 655

17 April 664

24 April 680

1 May 684

8 May 689

15 May 703

22 May 733

It just goes up and up and up and up.

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Properties for sale on Rightmove

Figures for St Albans

16 March 616

10 April 655

17 April 664

24 April 680

1 May 684

8 May 689

15 May 703

22 May 733

It just goes up and up and up and up.

Charted.

st albans for sale.JPG

post-13143-12745628320004_thumb.jpg

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Here is my observations for the last 10 weeks in Chelmsford Essex. (This area only, Properties above £80k, to filter out the garage and other sh1t)

The horizontal axis is number of weeks. For example '10' is this week, 9 the week before that a so on. Figures are average for the week. Couldn't seem to plot with a proper date on the X axis?

stockj.jpg

As you can see the last month has seen a good surge and this is before any CGT/HIPS effects. Seems similar to most other HPCer observations bar a few.

Needs a larger data sample really but thought it might be of interest.

Thanks to dave spart for posting tip.

I do hope that your interest in Chelmsford is observational and academic only.

p-o-p

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The horizontal axis is number of weeks. For example '10' is this week, 9 the week before that a so on. Figures are average for the week. Couldn't seem to plot with a proper date on the X axis?

stockj.jpg

As you can see the last month has seen a good surge and this is before any CGT/HIPS effects. Seems similar to most other HPCer observations bar a few.

Could you simplify the graph a bit. Drbubb has already mentioned he's having trouble understanding it.

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I do hope that your interest in Chelmsford is observational and academic only.

p-o-p

Chelmsford is not a bad place. There's some very nice little villages in the area which I'm interested in rather than Chelmsford it's self.

Could you simplify the graph a bit. Drbubb has already mentioned he's having trouble understanding it.

actually I would like make it simpler by using dates along the bottom instead of number of weeks. Anyone know how to do this? Not used the 2007 version before. A lot seems to have changed since my A-level IT days.

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Chelmsford is not a bad place. There's some very nice little villages in the area which I'm interested in rather than Chelmsford it's self.

actually I would like make it simpler by using dates along the bottom instead of number of weeks. Anyone know how to do this? Not used the 2007 version before. A lot seems to have changed since my A-level IT days.

No Chelmsford is not a bad place at all , it is also a very good guide for middle/average England. Its easy commute to the city ( 30 mins on a fast train to liverpool street ) makes it attract many working in town . So I think it is a good indicator of the markek in general.

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Chelmsford is not a bad place. There's some very nice little villages in the area which I'm interested in rather than Chelmsford it's self.

I used to live in Writtle it was lovely. Not the faintest sign of a crash there however!

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I used to live in Writtle it was lovely. Not the faintest sign of a crash there however!

Yeah writtle is lovely. More older style houses than the 'cheap' FTB crap I'm looking at. I'm sure it being about a mile from Chelmsford town it would be roughly the same conditions there. Ie increasing stock and lots of reductions.

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My stats from Jan 2010:

Only houses; 2nd number is including Sold STC

20/01/2010 Loughton 143/233 Epping 100/120 Harlow 306/464

24/01/2010 Loughton 137/231 Epping 098/116 Harlow 308/477 Worcester 528/660 Stevenage 357/527

30/01/2010 Loughton 140/234 Epping 098/118 Harlow 318/475 Worcester 544/675 Stevenage 373/546

06/02/2010 Loughton 131/225 Epping 101/124 Harlow 322/481 Worcester 536/690 Stevenage 384/564

13/02/2010 Loughton 140/235 Epping 111/131 Harlow 341/490 Worcester 555/719 Stevenage 385/574

20/02/2010 Loughton 136/237 Epping 113/140 Harlow 347/509 Worcester 588/766 Stevenage 392/590

28/02/2010 Loughton 145/246 Epping 118/148 Harlow 357/526 Worcester 590/785 Stevenage 385/598

06/03/2010 Loughton 157/258 Epping 121/152 Harlow 378/545 Worcester 612/811 Stevenage 381/601

13/03/2010 Loughton 163/261 Epping 127/155 Harlow 394/560 Worcester 612/832 Stevenage 399/622

20/03/2010 Loughton 156/247 Epping 131/157 Harlow 391/563 Worcester 634/864 Stevenage 416/642

28/03/2010 Loughton 164/259 Epping 136/163 Harlow 408/586 Worcester 660/892 Stevenage 419/661

04/04/2010 Loughton 183/271 Epping 142/170 Harlow 411/582 Worcester 655/890 Stevenage 427/638

10/04/2010 Loughton 183/271 Epping 139/169 Harlow 403/586 Worcester 654/905 Stevenage 417/623

25/04/2010 Loughton 199/290 Epping 137/173 Harlow 412/608 Worcester 692/951 Stevenage 413/633

15/05/2010 Loughton 201/304 Epping 140/179 Harlow 429/640 Worcester 717/1000+ Stevenage 422/675

23/05/2010 Loughton 216/325 Epping 144/187 Harlow 444/653 Worcester 727/1000+ Stevenage 434/689

30% to 50% up ...

Edited by damian frach

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Yeah writtle is lovely. More older style houses than the 'cheap' FTB crap I'm looking at. I'm sure it being about a mile from Chelmsford town it would be roughly the same conditions there. Ie increasing stock and lots of reductions.

Writtle will hang on to its gains better than many areas because there never was much available at any time.

I nearly put in an offer on a ex council semi which I could have got for circa £90k back in 2001. Same houses go for c£225k now (when available).

The housing market in its glory days was the easiest money ever.

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I work in Chelmsford and theres a heavy amount of BTL investing that goes on there. As with lots of places, plenty of them 1 & 2 bed apartments sprung-up in the good times. Your chart doesn't take into account the CGT rise, so I'd expect that figure to rocket further when the BTL bridgade cash in their chips.

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Writtle will hang on to its gains better than many areas because there never was much available at any time.

I nearly put in an offer on a ex council semi which I could have got for circa £90k back in 2001. Same houses go for c£225k now (when available).

The housing market in its glory days was the easiest money ever.

I think I know where you mean. That is probably the worsed part of Writtle IMO. Drove down there to check a few out at the end of last year but drove straight back out again!

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I'm not as good at making graphs as others here but this is mine.

HPC.jpg

My search criteria is Luton and has not changed since January 24th the (start of the graph). Each point is an average of the week's number of properties for sale between two £ values.

Obviously some properties each week will be reduced and will fall out of the search criteria and equally some more expensive properties will be reduced in price and will fall inside the search criteria.

The only reason there is a drop at the end is that, that week only has one day's data in it. Luton did not become radioactive overnight.

EDIT: added an ' before the apostrophe police got me.

post-12481-12746079892373_thumb.jpg

Edited by Driver

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I work in Chelmsford and theres a heavy amount of BTL investing that goes on there. As with lots of places, plenty of them 1 & 2 bed apartments sprung-up in the good times. Your chart doesn't take into account the CGT rise, so I'd expect that figure to rocket further when the BTL bridgade cash in their chips.

No i think the figure will rocket when the BTL bridgade sell as they cannot keep up the repayments on their IO mortgage's , agents fees , service charges, repairs , voids,

The rents on these new build 1& 2 bed apartments do not cover the cost's and many will be selling at loses CGT will not be the driving force behind these forced sales.

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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