The Future Is Unemployment

[Boom Boom]

A thesis I've promulgated many times here has now been expounded upon in this very good book

The Lights In The Tunnel

[Harry Sacks]

A thesis I've promulgated many times here has now been expounded upon in this very good book

The Lights In The Tunnel

Not a new Idea. My father's generation educated during the 40s/50s were expecting a future of leisure. The debt money system had a different plan.

[_w_]

A thesis I've promulgated many times here has now been expounded upon in this very good book

The Lights In The Tunnel

Don't forget the globalisation backdrop that has added 5 billion new workers to a balanced labour market of 1 billion. Human labour is the most over supplied commodity on earth.

Considering that Bankers/Master of the Universe/Alphas rule the world and trend towards ever greater accumulation of wealth and impoverishement of the other 99.9% of the population.

How do you see the future?

[Boom Boom]

Don't forget the globalisation backdrop that has added 5 billion new workers to a balanced labour market of 1 billion. Human labour is the most over supplied commodity on earth.

Considering that Bankers/Master of the Universe/Alphas rule the world and trend towards ever greater accumulation of wealth and impoverishement of the other 99.9% of the population.

How do you see the future?

A technological utopia, jealously guarded by the upper strata of society.

[_w_]

A technological utopia, jealously guarded by the upper strata of society.

Utopia doesn't count :-)

How about something realistic. the end of the Etruscan and also Roman civilisations spring to mind.

[ken_ichikawa]

Don't forget the globalisation backdrop that has added 5 billion new workers to a balanced labour market of 1 billion. Human labour is the most over supplied commodity on earth.

Considering that Bankers/Master of the Universe/Alphas rule the world and trend towards ever greater accumulation of wealth and impoverishement of the other 99.9% of the population.

How do you see the future?

Which is why war is the only realistic solution.

China + Russia vs the UN combined task force with Korea and Taiwan as the battleground?

They'd probably agree to have a limited war just for kicks before hand and agree a no nukes policy have 4-5 years of immense blood shed with 400-900 million casulties on each side, then suddenly stop and the problem is resolved.

[dohrayme]

A technological utopia, jealously guarded by the upper strata of society.

Sort of. The global economy is undergoing the pangs of equalisation. Think of it as West=hi tech, East=cheap labour. The rich West undergoes brief bubbles while using the cheap labour and resources of the East. We are already starting on the next bubble with 'green' or climate technologies. The Wests bubbles will become briefer yet more destructive, while the East provides the resources, until we are more equalised. I see at most a few more cycles, yet I feel it is most optimal to jump after the Green bubble.

[_w_]

with 400-900 million casualties on each side

They wouldn't be able to bring that many people to a battlefield if it was to be limited.

Also, with automation, mechanisation etc. it is probably not enough.

[_w_]

Sort of. The global economy is undergoing the pangs of equalisation.

That's the scariest thing to me because it is so real and inevitable IMO.

Think of it as West=hi tech, East=cheap labour. The rich West undergoes brief bubbles while using the cheap labour and resources of the East. We are already starting on the next bubble with 'green' or climate technologies. The Wests bubbles will become briefer yet more destructive, while the East provides the resources, until we are more equalised. I see at most a few more cycles, yet I feel it is most optimal to jump after the Green bubble.

A handful of cycles or perhaps one big credit bust that acts as a high speed elevator to the ground floor ... oh!?

Hello salaries that are 1/10th of current western salaries but with unchanged infrastructure costs.

[dohrayme]

That's the scariest thing to me because it is so real and inevitable IMO.

A handful of cycles or perhaps one big credit bust that acts as a high speed elevator to the ground floor ... oh!?

Hello salaries that are 1/10th of current western salaries but with unchanged infrastructure costs.

These things rarely work that quickly, and for historical reasons the West has entrenched itself pretty well - its undoing of course will be the inevitable bare-faced free market economics that it so espouses. But then its either that or slavery, and we made that choice centuries ago.

[ken_ichikawa]

They wouldn't be able to bring that many people to a battlefield if it was to be limited.

Also, with automation, mechanisation etc. it is probably not enough.

Why not? This isn't WWI or WWII where factory lines needed 10000s of slaves, with mechanised food production and armaments production you need less people to keep the country ticking over, the infantry limits in both world wars is irrelevant. The UK could feasibly provide 20 million infantry and still leave 30 million employed at home employed.

Also you seem to imply there would be a mega battle royale with 2billion infantry on the field of battle at any one time. It wouldn't be like that it'd be more akin to vietnam where people there is regular conscription to replace the destroyed infantry units.

[_w_]

Why not? This isn't WWI or WWII where factory lines needed 10000s of slaves, with mechanised food production and armaments production you need less people to keep the country ticking over, the infantry limits in both world wars is irrelevant. The UK could feasibly provide 20 million infantry and still leave 30 million employed at home employed.

Also you seem to imply there would be a mega battle royale with 2billion infantry on the field of battle at any one time. It wouldn't be like that it'd be more akin to vietnam where people there is regular conscription to replace the destroyed infantry units.

We totally agree :-) When I wrote it's not enough, I meant it would not be enough people on the battlefield. Reducing the population from 6 to 5 billion is not going to solve the labour over supply problem.

I can see why you didn't understand it that way, it was a rather sick thing to write on my part.

[_w_]

These things rarely work that quickly

I agree, it's just that I thought recently what a great opportunity to level things this could be as in ... don't let a good crisis go to waste... One small run of hyperinflation with stagnant wages accompanied by a 90% devaluation of over indebted currencies and hop, problem solved!

, and for historical reasons the West has entrenched itself pretty well - its undoing of course will be the inevitable bare-faced free market economics that it so espouses. But then its either that or slavery, and we made that choice centuries ago.

These bare-faced free market economics are having an ever greater impact, soon our free market future might be not much better than slavery if it is limited to survival and watching X factor on TV.

[Injin]

When something new is invented, the old stuff doesn't get magically uninvented.

An indoor toilet doesn't stop you shitting in a bucket.

[aa3]

Boomboom.. I've been reading and agreeing with your thoughts on the loss of jobs and the growing surplus of labour.

Its amazing but predictable that the elephant in the room.. automation of jobs no one talks about or even realizes is there.

You even read news stories sometimes like new alumininum mill installed, doubles output and needs 60% less workers. Then a few lines down.. local economists puzzled by rising unemployment.

[Guest Noodle]

Don't forget the globalisation backdrop that has added 5 billion new workers to a balanced labour market of 1 billion. Human labour is the most over supplied commodity on earth.

Considering that Bankers/Master of the Universe/Alphas rule the world and trend towards ever greater accumulation of wealth and impoverishement of the other 99.9% of the population.

How do you see the future?

The future?

A lot of automated hammock production.

[Mr Yogi]

So the Luddites were right all along, eh?

This process of automation has been happening for at least the last 250 years. All that it has meant is a general rise in living standards and more secure employment for the majority of people. As jobs become automated out of existence other opportunities emerge.

Automation and robotics doesn't affect every sector, either. I'd love to know how a computer is going to build you an extension, install a central heating system, or fit you a new kitchen.

Edited May 22, 2010 by Mr Yogi

[Once in a lifetime]

When something new is invented, the old stuff doesn't get magically uninvented.

An indoor toilet doesn't stop you shitting in a bucket.

Was that the best analogy you could think of

[Snugglybear]

So the Luddites were right all along, eh?

This process of automation has been happening for at least the last 250 years. All that it has meant is a general rise in living standards and more secure employment for the majority of people. As jobs become automated out of existence other opportunities emerge.

Automation and robotics doesn't affect every sector, either. I'd love to know how a computer is going to build you an extension, install a central heating system, or fit you a new kitchen.

Point 1: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Point 2: But then you need an economy where enough people can afford extensions, central heating systems, new kitchens to employ all the people made redundant by automation, not to mention all the people already unemployed, all year round. And who's to say that even those extensions etc will be built/installed/fitted by the Great British unemployed, especially those not skilled in building/installation/fitting, when there are skilled Polish workmen available.

[Mr Yogi]

Point 1: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Point 2: But then you need an economy where enough people can afford extensions, central heating systems, new kitchens to employ all the people made redundant by automation, not to mention all the people already unemployed, all year round. And who's to say that even those extensions etc will be built/installed/fitted by the Great British unemployed, especially those not skilled in building/installation/fitting, when there are skilled Polish workmen available.

But the whole point of automation is to reduce costs so that the end product or service is more competitive and/or profitable.

Following your line of logic through there would be no customers for said product or service as no-one would have any money. The process of automation needs people to find alternative gainful employment in order to provide a customer base for the now fully automated industry.

Without that, what's the point?

I use the construction example as that is the field in which I work. Similar examples can be found in most sectors, however. Low tech skills which cannot easily or viably be replaced by automated systems are increasingly valuable. I know many tradespeople earning considerably more than middle or even senior managers - in fact , I'm one myself.

Edited May 22, 2010 by Mr Yogi

[Frank Hovis]

Which is why war is the only realistic solution.

China + Russia vs the UN combined task force with Korea and Taiwan as the battleground?

They'd probably agree to have a limited war just for kicks before hand and agree a no nukes policy have 4-5 years of immense blood shed with 400-900 million casulties on each side, then suddenly stop and the problem is resolved.

You're just an idealistic dreamer Ken.

Isn't the counter to this that the end of cheap energy will mean that automation unwinds as being too expensive? The countryside used to be full of people planting, harvesting and doing by hand the 101 things that are now done by tractors and machines.

[Snugglybear]

But the whole point of automation is to reduce costs so that the end product or service is more competitive and/or profitable.

Following your line of logic through there would be no customers for said product or service as no-one would have any money. The process of automation needs people to find alternative gainful employment in order to provide a customer base for the now fully automated industry.

Without that, what's the point?

I use the construction example as that is the field in which I work. Similar examples can be found in most sectors, however. Low tech skills which cannot easily or viably be replaced by automated systems are increasingly valuable. I know many tradespeople earning considerably more than middle or even senior managers - I know, I'm one myself.

Point 1: But what if people don't find alternative gainful employment?

Point 2: Those skills are only valuable if there are people with money to pay for them.

The construction work you used as an example - a great deal of it has been financed by the credit explosion. Well, that's gone. Many tradespeople are already earning diddly squat, or moving into other fields - I know a carpenter / kitchen fitter who couldn't make ends meet and took a job in the public sector (I know, some people can't catch a break).

[Mr Yogi]

Point 1: But what if people don't find alternative gainful employment?

Then there won't be sufficient customers for the industry that automated them out of a job, and that industry will fail. It will be replaced by something else.

[quote name='Snugglybear' date='22 May 2010 - 07:14 AM' timestamp='1274508869' post='2534053'

]Point 2: Those skills are only valuable if there are people with money to pay for them.

The construction work you used as an example - a great deal of it has been financed by the credit explosion. Well, that's gone. Many tradespeople are already earning diddly squat, or moving into other fields - I know a carpenter / kitchen fitter who couldn't make ends meet and took a job in the public sector (I know, some people can't catch a break).

In any supply/demand situation, demand is limited by the ability or otherwise to pay. This is then reflected in the price.

I'm sorry to hear about your friend; however I am in exactly the same line of work and have never been busier. My clients generally don't borrow money to pay for the furniture I make for them. In fact, low interest rates on their savings are currently encouraging them to spend money on new kitchens, bedrooms, etc.

Every cloud...

[Stars]

Then there won't be sufficient customers for the industry that automated them out of a job, and that industry will fail. It will be replaced by something else.

Which is another way of saying, it is a situation that wont happen

These dystopias present a situation in which milions of people have unmet needs and spare time but are for some reason unable to put A and B together

[aa3]

But the whole point of automation is to reduce costs so that the end product or service is more competitive and/or profitable.

Following your line of logic through there would be no customers for said product or service as no-one would have any money. The process of automation needs people to find alternative gainful employment in order to provide a customer base for the now fully automated industry.

Without that, what's the point?

I use the construction example as that is the field in which I work. Similar examples can be found in most sectors, however. Low tech skills which cannot easily or viably be replaced by automated systems are increasingly valuable. I know many tradespeople earning considerably more than middle or even senior managers - in fact , I'm one myself.

Construction/home improvement will be one of the last to be automated. There has been a mass migration to the building trades as other jobs have gradually reduced over the last few decades.

New construction might be somewhat limited as the mass migration of workers into this area has meant an oversupply in some areas of the developed world. But home improvement like new cabinets, to installing a new fireplace seems to have legs and I think it can absorb some of the surplus labour being thrown off from elsewhere.

Some of the automation is from durability improvements though which can have an impact. For example if a new roofing material and coating can last 25 years instead of 15 years.. that has a big impact on the number of people needed as roofers.

In time even things like putting in new ducting can be automated. But we're talking a very difficult task, because that would take robots with human level intelligence and human level dexterity and strength.