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Do The Conlibs Have The Balls To Instigate Hpc?

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Nothing coming out of the new coalition seems to indicate they are willing to continue to prop up the housing market.

In fact CGT rise, tax rises, cuts and the general feeling of there is a shit storm brewing seems to indicate they are willing, even happy to let 'nature' take it's course.

IMHO opinion they can do nothing else, it's gonna happen and everyone knows it, and to let it gradually happen throughout this parliment will do far more damage to them, than to get it out of the way, amongst all the rest of the current financial crap thats coming.

What do HPCers think?

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Nothing coming out of the new coalition seems to indicate they are willing to continue to prop up the housing market.

In fact CGT rise, tax rises, cuts and the general feeling of there is a shit storm brewing seems to indicate they are willing, even happy to let 'nature' take it's course.

IMHO opinion they can do nothing else, it's gonna happen and everyone knows it, and to let it gradually happen throughout this parliment will do far more damage to them, than to get it out of the way, amongst all the rest of the current financial crap thats coming.

What do HPCers think?

I think only massive unemployemt, a sharp rise in IRs or soverign debt crisis will pull down HPs now.

The new Govt has made it clear that it intends to erode all savings by keeping IRs low so that is out.

I know plenty of unemployed people who, years ago, would have lost their house but now their are staying in their houses by seemingly 'magic' - basically they got citizens advice to do a part deal with the Social, part deal with the banks and apparently thousands have done this.

So that leaves global financial crisis... Hmm, they just keep printy printing don't they.

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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Blame Labour on the way down.

When low house prices cause the economy to boom, take the credit.

never let on that house prices destroyed the economy.

Process starts again.

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Nothing coming out of the new coalition seems to indicate they are willing to continue to prop up the housing market.

In fact CGT rise, tax rises, cuts and the general feeling of there is a shit storm brewing seems to indicate they are willing, even happy to let 'nature' take it's course.

IMHO opinion they can do nothing else, it's gonna happen and everyone knows it, and to let it gradually happen throughout this parliment will do far more damage to them, than to get it out of the way, amongst all the rest of the current financial crap thats coming.

What do HPCers think?

I started a thread saying this a couple of days ago. I think they will let happen, maybe not instigate or encourage it but allow it. If not several things make no sense. CGT, hips and putting HPI back into the inflation measure. It certainly makes sense to remove the props and get the crash out the way early while they can still blame labour.

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Why would they upset the baby boomers? To be fair, ConLib are probably as ignorant as the public.

Remember, 99% of people on this planet (may that is too generous, even) are complete idiots, sheeple.

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I started a thread saying this a couple of days ago. I think they will let happen, maybe not instigate or encourage it but allow it. If not several things make no sense. CGT, hips and putting HPI back into the inflation measure. It certainly makes sense to remove the props and get the crash out the way early while they can still blame labour.

Seems the only way forward for them TBH ;)

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1) I think only massive unemployemt, a sharp rise in IRs or soverign debt crisis will pull down HPs now.

2) The new Govt has made it clear that it intends to erode all savings by keeping IRs low so that is out.

3)

I know plenty of unemployed people who, years ago, would have lost their house but now their are staying in their houses by seemingly 'magic' - basically they got citizens advice to do a part deal with the Social, part deal with the banks and apparently thousands have done this.

4)

So that leaves global financial crisis... Hmm, they just keep printy printing don't they.

1) Even if we don't get any of those, lenders still have stuff all money to lend to people with. Funding gap and all that. Don't see how they are going to get more money without a sharp rise in interest rates and a sovereign debt crisis because the government has printed it or borrowed it.

2) Yup. A bit worrying isn't it?

3) Where has all this money come from? You sure we're not going to have a sovereign debt crisis?

4) Printy Printy! I wish they'd stop that.

As for the original post, the government doesn't seem that worried about propping up house prices, apart from they'll happily keep IR's low too.

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Nothing coming out of the new coalition seems to indicate they are willing to continue to prop up the housing market.

In fact CGT rise, tax rises, cuts and the general feeling of there is a shit storm brewing seems to indicate they are willing, even happy to let 'nature' take it's course.

IMHO opinion they can do nothing else, it's gonna happen and everyone knows it, and to let it gradually happen throughout this parliment will do far more damage to them, than to get it out of the way, amongst all the rest of the current financial crap thats coming.

What do HPCers think?

While raising CGT, stopping QE, changing banking rules, or even scrapping HIPS might trigger a market reaction.. it might even trigger an HPC... I am pretty sure that none of the said policies will be designed with that in mind... HPC would be a side effect.. and actually I think both Cameron and Clegg and Brown before them would prefer to avoid a crash if possible becasue on the one side it might well be a side effect of higher unemployment, lack of funding etc... once it starts it then feeds into the economy and delivers further negative impacts which I am sure they'd rather not to deal with... politicians of all parties want more affordable housing but without the market sized correction the maret probably needs.

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While raising CGT, stopping QE, changing banking rules, or even scrapping HIPS might trigger a market reaction.. it might even trigger an HPC... I am pretty sure that none of the said policies will be designed with that in mind... HPC would be a side effect.. and actually I think both Cameron and Clegg and Brown before them would prefer to avoid a crash if possible becasue on the one side it might well be a side effect of higher unemployment, lack of funding etc... once it starts it then feeds into the economy and delivers further negative impacts which I am sure they'd rather not to deal with... politicians of all parties want more affordable housing but without the market sized correction the maret probably needs.

But they don't seem to be prepared to actively prop it up at all costs like labour. I they were then doing these things would be very silly.

HPC would be beneficial in the long run. Lower house prices mean lower mortgages and more disposable income to spend in the economy. Low house prices make a lot of sense, it's just going to take a lot of pain to get there.

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Actually, I think they would rather have a crash, as soon after the election as possible. If it happens much longer than a year from now, they won't be able to blame labour anymore, whereas if property loses 30% in the next 12-18 months they will be able to point to the fact that Labour left the finances in a terrible state etc etc.

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Nothing coming out of the new coalition seems to indicate they are willing to continue to prop up the housing market.

In fact CGT rise, tax rises, cuts and the general feeling of there is a shit storm brewing seems to indicate they are willing, even happy to let 'nature' take it's course.

IMHO opinion they can do nothing else, it's gonna happen and everyone knows it, and to let it gradually happen throughout this parliment will do far more damage to them, than to get it out of the way, amongst all the rest of the current financial crap thats coming.

What do HPCers think?

Well, if they do let prices fall then it would help the Tories out of their awkward corner regarding inheritance tax since less tax would be payable because estates would fall in price which would presumably make all those people that voted tory for the IHT cut very happy. So they can achieve an inheritance tax 'cut' without compromising the deal they have with the Lib Dem.

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Well, if they do let prices fall then it would help the Tories out of their awkward corner regarding inheritance tax since less tax would be payable because estates would fall in price which would presumably make all those people that voted tory for the IHT cut very happy. So they can achieve an inheritance tax 'cut' without compromising the deal they have with the Lib Dem.

Trouble is, those people are expecting to inherit X thousands of pounds. In their minds, that's money they already possess. If the "value" of the estate i.e the house falls, that's 100% of the difference between what they "had" and what they actually get that's been "stolen" from them. They're going to consider that even worse than paying 40% CGT.

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Actually, I think they would rather have a crash, as soon after the election as possible. If it happens much longer than a year from now, they won't be able to blame labour anymore, whereas if property loses 30% in the next 12-18 months they will be able to point to the fact that Labour left the finances in a terrible state etc etc.

Yep that is possible, whether it happens or not is another question. If they let it all just run it's course we could be all over and done with in 2 years.

Still 3 years left for people to forget about it and get all excited about anything else. Then the next election appears..

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Trouble is, those people are expecting to inherit X thousands of pounds. In their minds, that's money they already possess. If the "value" of the estate i.e the house falls, that's 100% of the difference between what they "had" and what they actually get that's been "stolen" from them. They're going to consider that even worse than paying 40% CGT.

There was a thread the other day about 'getting it', I think you need to look beyond what different sections of the populance would like before you can grasp the level of what needs to be done.

Apologies if that sounds pedantic, it's not meant like that.

If we are to get out of this mess we need a massive reset, without wage inflation in order to get ahead of the competition and gain the advantage. We cannot do that while the entire country is indebted up to thier eyeballs and scared shitless, which they will be once they 'get it' so to speak.

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There was a thread the other day about 'getting it', I think you need to look beyond what different sections of the populance would like before you can grasp the level of what needs to be done.

Apologies if that sounds pedantic, it's not meant like that.

If we are to get out of this mess we need a massive reset, without wage inflation in order to get ahead of the competition and gain the advantage. We cannot do that while the entire country is indebted up to thier eyeballs and scared shitless, which they will be once they 'get it' so to speak.

this happened in the 1920s

if you read Galbraith great crash - he says that after a california property boom and then the wall street share boom, people accepted easy money as a fact of life. Compariosns with dot-com and then housing boom now.

This indeed had a sharp reset. More importantly, perhaps, is who people will end up blaming. And I don't know how to answer that. I feel sure many boomers will blame the tories. The later generations may well nopt. I don't know.

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....

If we are to get out of this mess we need a massive reset, ...

Such a thing will take 10 maybe 15 years.

The current government is not looking that far ahead.

The short sharp correction with bargain prices and life as usual that so many losers on here want will not happen. The crash is (IMHO) about 80% likely. If/when it happens it will benefit few people.

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Nothing coming out of the new coalition seems to indicate they are willing to continue to prop up the housing market.

In fact CGT rise, tax rises, cuts and the general feeling of there is a shit storm brewing seems to indicate they are willing, even happy to let 'nature' take it's course.

IMHO opinion they can do nothing else, it's gonna happen and everyone knows it, and to let it gradually happen throughout this parliment will do far more damage to them, than to get it out of the way, amongst all the rest of the current financial crap thats coming.

What do HPCers think?

It's gonna happen and all the public sector/civil servants will moan about Tory cuts and when the financial shit storm has subsided the retards will vote Labour back in to spend us into armageddon again!!

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Blah blah, same old same old ad infinitum...

Reality has surely to kick in at some stage.

Does anyone else feel that we could be heading into uncharted territory?

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Blah blah, same old same old ad infinitum...

Reality has surely to kick in at some stage.

Does anyone else feel that we could be heading into uncharted territory?

not uncharted, just unfamiliar to anyone currently alive... but certainly not armageddon - chauncy gardener and all that

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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