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Tired of Waiting

West Sussex - Price Changes

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Dear West Sussex neighbours,

We live in West Sussex, and I am trying to follow the prices movements in this area. I've noticed that the few attempts to start threads about individual towns in West Sussex don't "catch-on", probably due to the low number of posters per (small-ish) town? If so, perhaps a thread about a bigger area can have the necessary "critical mass".

We have been watching the market for a few years already, since around 2005-6. And I have the impression that prices here are still as high as the 2007 peak. Am I right? Do you have the same impression? Or even better: data?

We live between Arundel and Chichester (renting) and we would like to buy a small house (to start a family), in a 10 miles radious from here. (We have considered Brighton, but prices there are even higher than here.)

How are prices moving in your area? Are they changing?

Are they near peak levels there too?

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You prior kindly responded to my Chichester thread, (sorry for absent reply but I had trouble logging in until recently). Re Chichester prices & 10 miles radius within W.Sussex I can report that IMO asking prices are back to peak. & this was confirmed to me a few weeks ago for the Aldwick area when a local agent made that very statement.

We are renting a 4 bed detached & our landlords put it up for sale recently. They are asking 34% more than an identical house which sold 2 doors up in 1/09. I reckon this one may be worrth 15 % more than our rneighbours due to gargen size & , but this to my maths makes this property marked up by 20% on what it would have commanded 15 months ago.

This can't continue as there arent any FTB's.

Due to being in my early 40's & with teen kids we are perhaps more motivated than some to own depite the maths making it seeming daft to buy now. Thus I hang on to HPC optimistic posts on here as well as keeping an eye on News articles that point towards a crash. Personally I'm not seeking a massive crash but if a crash occurs I would lilkem to see it over a s shorter terms as possible as I am keen to avoid incurring significant equity loss as a a result of jumping on too quickly.

I think the CGT increases will see a lot more properties on the market as many amatuer BTL's & /or 2nd 3rd home owners try to bail out. That will see an increase in supply of houises for sale. If borrowing was more attainable subhect to realistic LTV multiplers then that should lead to more buyers, however, the reality is that with the banks lending very little, (relative to say 2.5 yrs ago), I doubt that there will be enough demand to match the ammount of properties, (due to restrictions on folk being able to secure sufficent sized mortgages). Thus something will have to give to re establish a flowing market. I feel either by prices will., ahve to come down or lending will have tom be more attainabale. The other factor is of course intersst rates ironically if these rise, ( & repo assistance weakens), the logic is more repos will appear. The downside is if interest rates rise then the cost to buy will be greater in terms of monthly payments.

In the meantime rental prices increase in West Sussex. I viewed a rental up for £1400 near identical to a now sold property in the sdame road that was securing a monthly rental of just £1100 until a few weeks ago. The landlord of the marketed rental refused to reduce to £1100 despsite me referring to the lower priced rental opposite. The figure of £1100 was a start point with a view to negotiating to £1250 but £1250 was out of the question for him. (I was told some mutterings of spending money to tidy it up after last tenants left. I represented that such costs would be met from outgoing tenants deposit if they left it in a tatty state of decor &/or repair but letting agent was having none of it). PMS lettings in Chichester has Zero rental available from £700 - 1500 PCM when I checked last week. They say remntals are in high demand.

What I cant understand is if rentals are in such high demand then why do there currently seem to be a significantly high volume of folk in rentals trying to buy rather than continue to rent ? I think most realise a few are being taken in by the trap caused by the bounce in the last 2 yrs but I hope the tide is changing.

No doubt the budget will impact on matters & I see in the Brighton thread folk talking of EA's being stormed by follk keen to seel to avoid increadsed CGT. As has beenn said elsewhere if it's delayed to sday 4/11 then we should see plenty trying to get rid. If not then perhaps many will keep hold of property as no incentive to minimise CGT increases.

I really am struggling to give myself answers. Just as I seem to think I am reasonably forecasting the future the market seems to suggest otherwise.

Very frustrating albeit one positve thought is many single property owners are IMO currently property rich but not income rich. Of course many will remain unafffected. ( i.e. not forced to seel for reduced prices), unless interest rates rise &/or disposable income reduces. Then of course availability from forced sdales would increase.................Still doesn't sort ourt the lending gap though unless a big drop occurs.

You may have your own thoughts on some or all of the above as I know you are one of the more deeper thinking contibutors on here & in this general geographical area. I cetainly don't look into the tiniest detail as much as some so take my comments accordingly. That said, we do spend a lot time looking at asking prices & have done over last few years thus your current evaluation is IMO correct for coast from Hants to the Arun..

In summary I haven't a bloody clue anymore ! LOL

In the meantime I need to find a new rental by 1/7/10 or I am buying a caravan !!!

Edited by CHICHESTER WAITING ROOM

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You prior kindly responded to my Chichester thread, (sorry for absent reply but I had trouble logging in until recently). Re Chichester prices & 10 miles radius within W.Sussex I can report that IMO asking prices are back to peak. & this was confirmed to me a few weeks ago for the Aldwick area when a local agent made that very statement.

We are renting a 4 bed detached & our landlords put it up for sale recently. They are asking 34% more than an identical house which sold 2 doors up in 1/09. I reckon this one may be worrth 15 % more than our rneighbours due to gargen size & , but this to my maths makes this property marked up by 20% on what it would have commanded 15 months ago.

This can't continue as there arent any FTB's.

Due to being in my early 40's & with teen kids we are perhaps more motivated than some to own depite the maths making it seeming daft to buy now. Thus I hang on to HPC optimistic posts on here as well as keeping an eye on News articles that point towards a crash. Personally I'm not seeking a massive crash but if a crash occurs I would lilkem to see it over a s shorter terms as possible as I am keen to avoid incurring significant equity loss as a a result of jumping on too quickly.

I think the CGT increases will see a lot more properties on the market as many amatuer BTL's & /or 2nd 3rd home owners try to bail out. That will see an increase in supply of houises for sale. If borrowing was more attainable subhect to realistic LTV multiplers then that should lead to more buyers, however, the reality is that with the banks lending very little, (relative to say 2.5 yrs ago), I doubt that there will be enough demand to match the ammount of properties, (due to restrictions on folk being able to secure sufficent sized mortgages). Thus something will have to give to re establish a flowing market. I feel either by prices will., ahve to come down or lending will have tom be more attainabale. The other factor is of course intersst rates ironically if these rise, ( & repo assistance weakens), the logic is more repos will appear. The downside is if interest rates rise then the cost to buy will be greater in terms of monthly payments.

In the meantime rental prices increase in West Sussex. I viewed a rental up for £1400 near identical to a now sold property in the sdame road that was securing a monthly rental of just £1100 until a few weeks ago. The landlord of the marketed rental refused to reduce to £1100 despsite me referring to the lower priced rental opposite. The figure of £1100 was a start point with a view to negotiating to £1250 but £1250 was out of the question for him. (I was told some mutterings of spending money to tidy it up after last tenants left. I represented that such costs would be met from outgoing tenants deposit if they left it in a tatty state of decor &/or repair but letting agent was having none of it). PMS lettings in Chichester has Zero rental available from £700 - 1500 PCM when I checked last week. They say remntals are in high demand.

What I cant understand is if rentals are in such high demand then why do there currently seem to be a significantly high volume of folk in rentals trying to buy rather than continue to rent ? I think most realise a few are being taken in by the trap caused by the bounce in the last 2 yrs but I hope the tide is changing.

No doubt the budget will impact on matters & I see in the Brighton thread folk talking of EA's being stormed by follk keen to seel to avoid increadsed CGT. As has beenn said elsewhere if it's delayed to sday 4/11 then we should see plenty trying to get rid. If not then perhaps many will keep hold of property as no incentive to minimise CGT increases.

I really am struggling to give myself answers. Just as I seem to think I am reasonably forecasting the future the market seems to suggest otherwise.

Very frustrating albeit one positve thought is many single property owners are IMO currently property rich but not income rich. Of course many will remain unafffected. ( i.e. not forced to seel for reduced prices), unless interest rates rise &/or disposable income reduces. Then of course availability from forced sdales would increase.................Still doesn't sort ourt the lending gap though unless a big drop occurs.

You may have your own thoughts on some or all of the above as I know you are one of the more deeper thinking contibutors on here & in this general geographical area. I cetainly don't look into the tiniest detail as much as some so take my comments accordingly. That said, we do spend a lot time looking at asking prices & have done over last few years thus your current evaluation is IMO correct for coast from Hants to the Arun..

In summary I haven't a bloody clue anymore ! LOL

In the meantime I need to find a new rental by 1/7/10 or I am buying a caravan !!!

I agree completely that the market is not making sense.

Banks only lend low LTV levels, requiring very large deposits, but in these cases they do offer very low interest rates. This is attracting large numbers of these buyers with large deposits. But that should sustain only better areas, more middle class. What could be keeping prices high in worse areas?

Perhaps Housing Benefits (HB) are puting a floor under BTL rents, thus yields and house prices?

I started a thread about that, with HB levels in the South, including Chichester and Guildford. Take a look: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=143597&view=findpost&p=2535945

There is a brilliant letter there, in post 125 IIRC, from a family father out-competed by HB.

Regarding the future, everybody is lost. Even fund managers and academic economists. The world economy is in a totality unique, and deeply puzzling situation.

Good luck (to all of us...)

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If the picture is anything like other areas, low bond yields are one factor putting a floor under the value to a long term rental investment, meaning that houses even in poor areas can pull in approximately 22 (100/4.5%) times annual rental value from a rental buyer that ignores the possibility of capital losses (property prices always rise etc. etc.) and doesn't understand the costs associated with BTL. The second factor is banks continuing to allow property owners to secure further loans using equity in current properties rather than asking for cash as a deposit. The rumblings about changes in CGT have put most of these people out of the buying game over the last month or so.

I agree completely that the market is not making sense.

Banks only lend low LTV levels, requiring very large deposits, but in these cases they do offer very low interest rates. This is attracting large numbers of these buyers with large deposits. But that should sustain only better areas, more middle class. What could be keeping prices high in worse areas?

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Tired of Waiting,

I had prior read the HB discussion & seen the copy of the letter.

Pehaps I should just give up I could declare myself liable for sick benefit due to a bad back, dependancy on alcohol & drugs & being too stresssed to work !

I would get subsidised rental from HB & could be paid to sit at home & watch Jeremy Kyle all day.

Either that or move into politics & claim the costs of my financial trickery & accountancy fees to manage same from the tax payer.

Edited by CHICHESTER WAITING ROOM

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If the picture is anything like other areas, low bond yields are one factor putting a floor under the value to a long term rental investment, meaning that houses even in poor areas can pull in approximately 22 (100/4.5%) times annual rental value from a rental buyer that ignores the possibility of capital losses (property prices always rise etc. etc.) and doesn't understand the costs associated with BTL.

Very good point. I am sure there are many investors making this mistake - just comparing yields and ignoring future capital losses and BTL costs.

But is it possible, or likely, that enough investors would make this mistake, and distort the market?? Usually, the "average"investor is reasonably sensible. That is how markets work. And these are people with money enough to invest. They can't be so stupid. ... Or can they?? :unsure:

I know, I know, the bubble, etc... But back then the banks were lending 100% LTV to any moron, without any deposit. Now these investors would have to have large deposits. They can't be that stupid. ... :unsure:

I am confused.

The second factor is banks continuing to allow property owners to secure further loans using equity in current properties rather than asking for cash as a deposit.

I see. Perhaps older people, with savings generating little, and loads of equity in their current homes, are buying BTLs?

The rumblings about changes in CGT have put most of these people out of the buying game over the last month or so.

I hope so. Let's see the house prices indexes at the end of June and July.

And let's hope the Coalition will not implement the CGT with immediate effect, or this will reduce supply, and push prices up again.

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Tired of Waiting,

I had prior read the HB discussion & seen the copy of the letter.

Pehaps I should just give up I could declare myself liable for sick benefit due to a bad back, dependancy on alcohol & drugs & being too stresssed to work !

I would get subsidised rental from HB & could be paid to sit at home & watch Jeremy Kyle all day.

Either that or move into politics & claim the costs of my financial trickery & accountancy fees to manage same from the tax payer.

I understand your feelings. We rent a 1.5 bedroom flat, and didn't even feel like starting a family here.

At the same time, every time we go to Chichester city centre we see loads of this ( and we are paying for it!!! ) :

chav-single-mother.jpg

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If the picture is anything like other areas, low bond yields are one factor putting a floor under the value to a long term rental investment, meaning that houses even in poor areas can pull in approximately 22 (100/4.5%) times annual rental value from a rental buyer that ignores the possibility of capital losses (property prices always rise etc. etc.) and doesn't understand the costs associated with BTL. The second factor is banks continuing to allow property owners to secure further loans using equity in current properties rather than asking for cash as a deposit. The rumblings about changes in CGT have put most of these people out of the buying game over the last month or so.

Housing Benefits, official numbers, including all Sussex localities : from http://www.voa.gov.uk/publications/localrefrents/index.htm

For the Chichester area, housing benefits are now, May 2010 :

Studio_____1 Bed_____2 Beds____3 Beds____4 Beds____5 Beds

£109.62___£132.70___£167.31___£199.04___£230.77___£282.69 <--- Weekly

£474.98___£574.99___£724.95___£862.44___£999.93___£1,224.90 <---- Monthly (weekly x 4.333)

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Pehaps I should just give up I could declare myself liable for sick benefit due to a bad back, dependancy on alcohol & drugs & being too stresssed to work !

I would get subsidised rental from HB & could be paid to sit at home & watch Jeremy Kyle all day.

Either that or move into politics & claim the costs of my financial trickery & accountancy fees to manage same from the tax payer.

Have you seen the Budget! :)

Rents will come down soon. And BTLers will start selling their properties pretty soon too. (Well, at least the better informed amongst them.)

A quote from a thread on the main forum section, about the imminent capping of LHA:

"Currently LHA is set at the 50% percentile so if average rents in your area are £60, LHA will be £60.

LHA will be set at the 30% percentile meaning that LHA will only cover the cheapest 30% of the housing stock for rent. Its impossible to say the exact figure this will mean for LHA, but for example if average rents are £60 then LHA may be £50 or even £45.

There is also a feedback effect since this will lower rents, which mean average rents will then drop, which will in turn mean LHA goes down, which will then force rents down even further."

:)

B)

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(...)

In summary I haven't a bloody clue anymore ! LOL

:lol:

Hi CWR, I had forgotten this post of yours, the ending is very funny - 'cause it is true!

Well, some good news recently, re. the new government, wanting HP to fall, and liberalising planning permits, etc. Let's see. But it will take a few years. We better wait and rent for 2 or 3 years.

In the meantime I need to find a new rental by 1/7/10 or I am buying a caravan !!!

I hope you've found a good place.

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I have been renting last 18 months and hoping for market to come back down to realistic levels. The fact prices went up around here (mid-sussex) last year and I believe are at levels above 2007 makes no sense.

I really believe a major problem is the Estate Agents who are chasing very few proporties and are bidding up the price they say they can get vendors - just to get the thing on their books.

What however gets me is their attitude. They aren't interested in potential purchasers at all. For example (Ihave many others) I recently told a EA I was a cash buyer had viewed one of their proporties twice and was quite interest - he showed absolutlely no enthusiasm or interest for my enquiry and has never phoned back. Property still on market.

...I suspect nothing will really happen in Mid-Sussex until either interest rates go up or one or two EA s go bust.

Edited by Blackers

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I have been renting last 18 months and hoping for market to come back down to realistic levels. The fact prices went up around here (mid-sussex) last year and I believe are at levels above 2007 makes no sense.

I really believe a major problem is the Estate Agents who are chasing very few proporties and are bidding up the price they say they can get vendors - just to get the thing on their books.

What however gets me is their attitude. They aren't interested in potential purchasers at all. For example (Ihave many others) I recently told a EA I was a cash buyer had viewed one of their proporties twice and was quite interest - he showed absolutlely no enthusiasm or interest for my enquiry and has never phoned back. Property still on market.

...I suspect nothing will really happen in Mid-Sussex until either interest rates go up or one or two EA s go bust.

Blackers, i am looking in the same area, but I have definately notices things are softening again and asking prices are starting to come down, albeit in many cases from an unrealtic starting point. Things have definately changed and i believe in the next month this will only gt worse (or better from our point of view) However, I am looking in such a small area/villages that I may npot get as much of the HPC as others. Sentiment has definately changed.

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I have been renting last 18 months and hoping for market to come back down to realistic levels. The fact prices went up around here (mid-sussex) last year and I believe are at levels above 2007 makes no sense.

I really believe a major problem is the Estate Agents who are chasing very few proporties and are bidding up the price they say they can get vendors - just to get the thing on their books.

What however gets me is their attitude. They aren't interested in potential purchasers at all. For example (Ihave many others) I recently told a EA I was a cash buyer had viewed one of their proporties twice and was quite interest - he showed absolutlely no enthusiasm or interest for my enquiry and has never phoned back. Property still on market.

...I suspect nothing will really happen in Mid-Sussex until either interest rates go up or one or two EA s go bust.

I am not so sure about that Blackers. I've been keeping an eye on the market in the Chichester - Arundel "corridor", and I am pretty sure that prices are finally starting to come down. I ma seeing some 5-10% price reductions, and still houses are not selling.

I think pretty soon (some) sellers will realise that it was a bubble, and that prices will keep falling for the next few years, back down to normal levels. And only these sellers will be able to sell their properties, as they will reduce their prices fast enough. The stubborn ones will get stuck with a devalued asset. :)

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I have been renting last 18 months and hoping for market to come back down to realistic levels. The fact prices went up around here (mid-sussex) last year and I believe are at levels above 2007 makes no sense.

I really believe a major problem is the Estate Agents who are chasing very few proporties and are bidding up the price they say they can get vendors - just to get the thing on their books.

What however gets me is their attitude. They aren't interested in potential purchasers at all. For example (Ihave many others) I recently told a EA I was a cash buyer had viewed one of their proporties twice and was quite interest - he showed absolutlely no enthusiasm or interest for my enquiry and has never phoned back. Property still on market.

...I suspect nothing will really happen in Mid-Sussex until either interest rates go up or one or two EA s go bust.

Good news. Expensive areas will probably take longer to crash, but then, they will crash harder.

http://www.moneyweek.com/blog/prime-house-prices-may-crash-harder-than-the-rest-00239.aspx

Just be patient my friend, 'cause fairer prices are coming. :)

Just get a long term rental contract, in a comfy house, for 2-3 years, and then you will have more fairly priced options than you could ever have imagined.

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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:lol:

Hi CWR, I had forgotten this post of yours, the ending is very funny - 'cause it is true!

Well, some good news recently, re. the new government, wanting HP to fall, and liberalising planning permits, etc. Let's see. But it will take a few years. We better wait and rent for 2 or 3 years.

I hope you've found a good place.

Thanks T.O.W. ,

Hmmm.............We found somewhere 5 miles away from last place. Location & square footage fine but we have had damp issues - even in summer. Adressed damp with landlord though not convinced her response will sort it, (i.e. fitting an extractor fan in one bathroom is IMO unlikely to sort damp issue in most rooms).

Renting & last forced move in particular now taking it's toll & not only on wallet...................I'm fed up with situation - the other half significantly more so.

Nothing to report - seeing isolated circa 5-6% drops but only on stuff overpriced intitially relative to other stuff already out there.

IMO local market needs at least 20% off & maybe 30% on stuff 400k upwards.

Convinced we're higher in prices than 2007 now.

Apologies for delay - tbh I am so gobsmacked & fed up with property prices that I haven't logged on here for a while.

I'll let you know just before we totally lose the plot - Forty something with family, years ticking by & in rental..........Not good.

Speak soon.

Edited by CHICHESTER WAITING ROOM

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Thanks T.O.W. ,

Hmmm.............We found somewhere 5 miles away from last place. Location & square footage fine but we have had damp issues - even in summer. Adressed damp with landlord though not convinced her response will sort it, (i.e. fitting an extractor fan in one bathroom is IMO unlikely to sort damp issue in most rooms).

Renting & last forced move in particular now taking it's toll & not only on wallet...................I'm fed up with situation - the other half significantly more so.

Nothing to report - seeing isolated circa 5-6% drops but only on stuff overpriced intitially relative to other stuff already out there.

IMO local market needs at least 20% off & maybe 30% on stuff 400k upwards.

Convinced we're higher in prices than 2007 now.

Apologies for delay - tbh I am so gobsmacked & fed up with property prices that I haven't logged on here for a while.

I'll let you know just before we totally lose the plot - Forty something with family, years ticking by & in rental..........Not good.

Speak soon.

I know exactly how you feel, because we fell exactly the same. This whole mess is soul destroying.

We didn't even manage to feel/decide to start a family yet, and I am sure that this unstable and unsatisfactory housing situation is a major emotional factor on it. And wife in her 30s now, we're starting to worry about our "biological clock", especially if we want to have more children later, etc. It is all a sad mess.

And I fully agree that prices here are still near peak levels. I've just confirmed it recently with data from the gov. I'll put a link here latter, in "edit".

But do not doubt that prices will fall here too! No doubt about that. With cuts of 6%/year for the next 4 years, it will be carnage! Really.

And it is already starting now, slowly, and it will be confirmed during the winter. You will see, soon.

And it will keep falling for a few years.

If you want to "listen to the future" of West Sussex, listen to this Northern Ireland programme. Prices there have been falling for 3 years now:

(And show it to the wife. I will! :P )

All the best,

After seeing Jonathan Davis for the first time on Newsnight a few weeks ago I sent a brief email of respect. Now finding myself on his mailing list, this came in today...

Jonathan Davis

It starts to get personal when a caller gets into the property investing presenter's mince. Nice one.

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Jazzman,

Yes the OP stated he had a certain impression, however, I am sure this was based on a significant & longstanding understanding of the local market.

I'm fairly confident that my less scientific assesment of the market is pretty accurate, (& similar to the impression expressed by the OP.

What is happening In N.I. should have happened whether to a greater or lesser extent.........clearly the outgoing government were happy to put it on the plastic as they had the option to pass on the bill to the incoming team.

One coastal EA, (in this neck of the woods), reckons approx 75% of business is non mortgage funded & with many properties bought as holiday or 2nd homes................................If a given area has only 25% of buyers needing to borrow then it likely to be less affected by changes in earnings, & availablity of borrowing. One would hope that those wise or fortunate enough to be cash buyers would still be shrewd enough to push prices down by wise negotiations based on the national climate, however, there are seemingly significant numbers of daft cash buyers happy to pay OTT by responding to greedy sellers &/or EA's.

Thanks for the audio link..................quite funny in places.

T.I.W. Sorry to hear you & your other half also affected by local market.

Ironic that I have just read an article on Sky News claiming prices dropping in every region.

Edited by CHICHESTER WAITING ROOM

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Jazzman,

Yes the OP stated he had a certain impression, however, I am sure this was based on a significant & longstanding understanding of the local market.

I'm fairly confident that my less scientific assesment of the market is pretty accurate, (& similar to the impression expressed by the OP.

What is happening In N.I. should have happened whether to a greater or lesser extent.........clearly the outgoing government were happy to put it on the plastic as they had the option to pass on the bill to the incoming team.

One coastal EA, (in this neck of the woods), reckons approx 75% of business is non mortgage funded & with many properties bought as holiday or 2nd homes................................If a given area has only 25% of buyers needing to borrow then it likely to be less affected by changes in earnings, & availablity of borrowing. One would hope that those wise or fortunate enough to be cash buyers would still be shrewd enough to push prices down by wise negotiations based on the national climate, however, there are seemingly significant numbers of daft cash buyers happy to pay OTT by responding to greedy sellers &/or EA's.

Thanks for the audio link..................quite funny in places.

T.I.W. Sorry to hear you & your other half also affected by local market.

Ironic that I have just read an article on Sky News claiming prices dropping in every region.

Thanks.

Yes, the audio does have some hilarious parts. Mainly from callers, making fun of the presenter, for having bought at the peak.

For me the most interesting was that all callers were "back on their senses"! Seeing the whole bubble saga very clearly, and having a moment like "what were we thinking?!?!?!".

Brilliant.

The very same will happen here in 3 years time. It was like listening from a radio program from our own future.

For those who didn't listen to it yet, here: http://jonathandaviswm.com/jonathan-davis-media/303/

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Good news. Expensive areas will probably take longer to crash, but then, they will crash harder.

http://www.moneyweek...rest-00239.aspx

Just be patient my friend, 'cause fairer prices are coming. :)

Just get a long term rental contract, in a comfy house, for 2-3 years, and then you will have more fairly priced options than you could ever have imagined.

.

Hello Tired of Waitng

I wondered if you have a UTD view of West Suusex/Mid Sussex market. I live in Mid-Sussex and have been researching prices, data bases etc for months now and see no price decline at all. In fact I recently saw one in HH for 750k suppossedly in 'well presented accomodation' - when in fact the upstairs doors where knocked off their hinges and the bathrooms filthy. I told the EA who just shrugged its still on 2 months later.............http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31639163.html

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Any more updates from folks in West Sussex?

I live in Mid Sussex and have run several databases I have built around sold prices and asking prices and several things seem quite clear:

  • Asking prices are much higher than 2007
  • Selling prices are mostly higher than 2007
  • Number of proporties being sold and put on market last 3 months has slowed considerably
  • Property descriptions are becoming futher and further removed from reality..and that's saying something
  • For example I saw one property in HH described as 'well presented' yet had upstairs doors knocked in, railings hanging off and moldy bathrooms http://www.rightmove...y-31639163.html
  • Perhaps we can 'out 'some of the more adventurous descriptions on here?

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Hello Tired of Waitng

I wondered if you have a UTD view of West Suusex/Mid Sussex market. I live in Mid-Sussex and have been researching prices, data bases etc for months now and see no price decline at all. In fact I recently saw one in HH for 750k suppossedly in 'well presented accomodation' - when in fact the upstairs doors where knocked off their hinges and the bathrooms filthy. I told the EA who just shrugged its still on 2 months later.............http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31639163.html

Hi Blackers,

Sorry I didn't see your post before. I haven't visited this section for a while.

I keep an eye on the Chichester - Arundel area, and about 5 to 10 miles north of them, and in the last months of 2010 I did start to notice many reductions (finally!), but usually around 10% only. I am quite sure the spring will see lots of new sellers, as usual, but as the banks will keep current lending restrictions, we won't see a matching number of new buyers. Prices will fall off a cliff in the spring.

Wise sellers better to sell as soon as possible. Better to give a 10% "reduction" now, than be forced to give a 20% in June.

And it will be of no use to "hold for the long term". It was the biggest property prices bubble in UK history. Prices will never again be so crazy. In 10 years time people will not believe that one day they believed that these current prices were "normal"... :rolleyes: We are in Dutch tulips territory.

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Any more updates from folks in West Sussex?

I live in Mid Sussex and have run several databases I have built around sold prices and asking prices and several things seem quite clear:

  • Asking prices are much higher than 2007
  • Selling prices are mostly higher than 2007
  • Number of proporties being sold and put on market last 3 months has slowed considerably
  • Property descriptions are becoming futher and further removed from reality..and that's saying something
  • For example I saw one property in HH described as 'well presented' yet had upstairs doors knocked in, railings hanging off and moldy bathrooms http://www.rightmove...y-31639163.html
  • Perhaps we can 'out 'some of the more adventurous descriptions on here?

I am tracking prices in Horsham and Maidenbower (Crawley) in the 300-400k range but have no immediate plans to buy. My impression is that asking prices are still around 10% higher than 2007 levels but very few houses are shifting. I have noticed some 5-10% drops in the last month but they are few and far between and only take asking prices to 2007 levels anyway. Low IRs have certainly put a floor under prices around here. Nothing short of financial armageddon would lead to sustained falls of the kind we are hoping for me thinks.Personally I would be happy with 25% below peak prices but even that would take a 35% drop from current asking prices which is highly unlikely unless IRs rise rapidly and unemployment rockets.

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Hello all - first posting here so please be gentle with me! Like probably most of the people who visit your forum & post regularly, I would love to see property prices crash to mid 90s levels - nothing would make me happier. Im currently renting in Horsham, west sussex & would dearly love to get back on the property ladder, but at prices I remember from the 90s!

Sadly I dont think this will happen. The comments Ive been reading here & elsewhere are exactly the same as I see posted every year for the past decade - prices arent decreasing by the amounts we would love to see - I dont even see it reducing this year - heres why I think prices will stay the same.

Rental market is booming - last year my landlord wanted to increase by 15% the rent. we negotiated, but I know I was fortunate - there are so few rental properties available that he could have got what he was asking for. This year after speaking to some agents, I know a similar increase will be expected. the demand is still so high & there are so few properties available.

If you are a "buy-to-letter", who owns properties that have very low mortgage rates & the rent you receive is covering your mortgage, then why are you going to sell? Higher interest rates may force a rethink, but generally people now accept that whatever the property value is today, over time property has proven time and time again to be a reliable investment. As a result, if you owned a 2nd house that you rented, you probably would be more prepared to take a hit (unless you had hundreds of properties I guess!)

Over the past 10 years, we have seen significant migration to the UK - particularly in the south & around london. I dont see that changing anytime soon. I also dont see any significant building developments happening - they tried to build more homes in Southwater just outside Horsham but the NIMBY brigade won the day and plans were scuppered...if you were a homeowner would you really want to agree to mass developement of housing thereby potentially reducing the value of our investment, or making your life more unpleasant due to more people/traffic etc etc.

Part buy/part rent schemes are pretty much non-existant and with the problems with public finances, they arent going to see any increases in what they get anytime soon. Only 'key workers' really get access to affordable housing. Non-key workers get ignored becuase they aren't civil servants - irrespective of the fact that civil servants pay has now caught up with private sector pay & civil servants still have access to ridiculous pensions, that the same people who are forgotten have to pay for! Those non-key workers,still need to have somewhere to live & cannot afford a mortgage, nor do they qualify for part owned schemes. So they need to rent but there is now very little council housing available for rent ....you can see the dilemma...

I read a posting earlier about property prices in Worthing & surrounding area & the author of the posting was looking forward to property in those areas dropping rapidly in price, when the owners passed away due to old age and their children sold the properties. But I dont see a mass flux of properties on the market, when you consider that the population is living longer...so when people in Worthing pass away, their property will be snapped up by new pensioners looking forward to retiring by the seaside!

London is getting more and more expensive & as a result more people are realising that you can get more bang for your buck by commuting an extra 30 or 60 minutes - thereby continuing to fuel the demand for property in the sussex area (& Im sure other areas of the country in similar locations). Commuting life is becoming slightly more bearable with the advent of laptops, cell phones, ipads etc

We all saw significant price reductions in 2008, but there was a specific reason for that & the banks have now been propped up with taxpayers money - as a result I see no reason why property prices should decrease...

People have mentioned that prices have dropped by 5% here and there in January on those properties that were put up for sale in November/December because they simply arent selling. Well theres a reason for that - snow! Some people ineviatably have to move at a given time - such as relocating due to jobs, & those people will take the hit but that doesnt mean that everyone who owns 2+ properties are also going to jump on the selling bandwagon and put their properties up for sale does it?

Finally the banks...banks are no longer prepared to take risks - they darent! As a result they only lend to good risks, or those which have large deposits. Weve seen families investing in their children's 1st property - those are even less likely ever to be repossessed. As a parent, you would never let your children lose their home if you were affluent and could help in anyway (particularly as your pension might be tied into it!) As a child you would do even more not to default, because you would not want to make your parents lose out financially. Banks are lending less & they are charging more for the good risks. As a result, there should be less repossessions - banks are lending "more responsibly". Even if they are higher, we will never see the numbers of the early 90s.

So there you go - my thoughts as to why why I simply dont see property prices crashing - demand continues to outstrip supply. But, as ever I am always eager to hear from others - I dream that one day I can buy a 4 bed detached in Horsham for £200k, but I truly believe that is unrealistic

Edited by gingertips

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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