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Guest KingCharles1st

Mid May 2010- And The Market Is Doing What Exactly?

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Guest KingCharles1st

Aren't we now in the "window" for "School moves for the Autumn term" and "get it done in the summer" house sales?

What is the true state of transaction numbers?

Can the customer/Lender interface (ie E.A.s and IFAs) stand another ropey year....?

We need hard data

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Aren't we now in the "window" for "School moves for the Autumn term" and "get it done in the summer" house sales?

What is the true state of transaction numbers?

Can the customer/Lender interface (ie E.A.s and IFAs) stand another ropey year....?

We need hard data

Wait for land registry figures in a few months for the hard data. Other than that here's how I see it at the moment.

The Market is going nowhere it's plateauing on the edge of the cliff and the cliff is giving way. 2 HPIs are now negative. Halifax is down 0.7% for the last 3 months now and has seen 2 negative figures in those 3 months. Land registry has been negative for two consectutive months.

Also if you do a basic seasonal adjustment of the last rightmove figures you

get another negative of about -0.6%

of the three still positive, nationwide, FT and DLG the only one I give any weight to is nationwide.

So far the spring selling season has been pretty much a flop. Add to this the evidence from

the various above named reports that supply is still

increasing faster than demand and all the anecdotal evidence from

this site that agrees the data and I think the end is near...

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Guest KingCharles1st

Wait for land registry figures in a few months for the hard data. Other than that here's how I see it at the moment.

The Market is going nowhere it's plateauing on the edge of the cliff and the cliff is giving way. 2 HPIs are now negative. Halifax is down 0.7% for the last 3 months now and has seen 2 negative figures in those 3 months. Land registry has been negative for two consectutive months.

Also if you do a basic seasonal adjustment of the last rightmove figures you

get another negative of about -0.6%

of the three still positive, nationwide, FT and DLG the only one I give any weight to is nationwide.

So far the spring selling season has been pretty much a flop. Add to this the evidence from

the various above named reports that supply is still

increasing faster than demand and all the anecdotal evidence from

this site that agrees the data and I think the end is near...

IF the sales infrastructure crumbles even smaller by dint of awful summer figures, so that by November we are left with hard core business and low volumes, and Davenick bros. cuts have stuffed middle and upper management up the **** sideways with a large rogering stick due to unemployment, this really could be the end. If HPI survives the next 12 months, I will be utterly amazed.

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I agree with the sping being a flop, I'm almost surprised when a house goes SSTC.

Prices (Asking) are holding at +/-10% of peak, only the good stuff in good areas gets sold here in West Surrey.

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IF the sales infrastructure crumbles even smaller by dint of awful summer figures, so that by November we are left with hard core business and low volumes, and Davenick bros. cuts have stuffed middle and upper management up the **** sideways with a large rogering stick due to unemployment, this really could be the end. If HPI survives the next 12 months, I will be utterly amazed.

I am utterly amazed its got this far and it seems to me that people on the street still think it has room to go. Look at the frustration from the masked tulip etc..

I dont want it to but this is just out and out odd now.

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1) Interest rates. Interest rates can only go up from here. At some point the market will demand higher interest rates no matter what the government(s) wish.

2) Extend and pretend. Governments have suspended 'mark to market' rules for banks. This allows non-performing property portfolios to be parked off balance. But this eventually hits cash flow, so it cannot be suspended indefinitely.

3) Psychology. The reality of the economic situation has still not sunk in. It's like a junkie going cold turkey, just coming off the last high.

IMO watch London. When prices in London really start to go, then the rest of the market will follow.

I understand that London asking prices dropped 2% last month?

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I am utterly amazed its got this far and it seems to me that people on the street still think it has room to go. Look at the frustration from the masked tulip etc..

I dont want it to but this is just out and out odd now.

Tulip's problem is that he lives in an area that is popular for retirement. This is directly dependent upon prices in places like London. But he should take heart that his region had perhaps the largest and most rapid fall in 2008 of any region in the UK, and when prices start to fall in London prices will fall more rapidly in these retirement regions.

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1) Interest rates. Interest rates can only go up from here. At some point the market will demand higher interest rates no matter what the government(s) wish.

2) Extend and pretend. Governments have suspended 'mark to market' rules for banks. This allows non-performing property portfolios to be parked off balance. But this eventually hits cash flow, so it cannot be suspended indefinitely.

3) Psychology. The reality of the economic situation has still not sunk in. It's like a junkie going cold turkey, just coming off the last high.

IMO watch London. When prices in London really start to go, then the rest of the market will follow.

I understand that London asking prices dropped 2% last month?

Interest rates may not go anywhere, 9-0 vote on the MPC in the face of 5% inflation. OK it could be forced on them, but for the forseeable future it may well not be.

Extend and pretend...great phrase. However SHOULD they wish I am sure the govt and banks can keep churning out creative accounting initiatives, I know legal constraints mean the SLS has to end to stop it being accounted as National Debt for instance, but I do feel that as that facility is withdrawn, another iffy scheme can always be created.

Psychology...I agree there has been a change in media led perceptions since Greece going down. i think the recent Daily Express headline about HPI was p1ssing in to the prevailing breeze.

The Bulls seem to have gone in to hiding.

I agree that when London goes down that will create an unstoppable gravity nationally.

My feeling going in to this spring was the housing market would not go down till late summer / autumn, but what im seeing and hearing leads me to feel this is too cautious, I have optimism about HPC but it will be constrained till I see the budget.

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Tulip's problem is that he lives in an area that is popular for retirement. This is directly dependent upon prices in places like London. But he should take heart that his region had perhaps the largest and most rapid fall in 2008 of any region in the UK, and when prices start to fall in London prices will fall more rapidly in these retirement regions.

TMT's area is probably also skewed by second homerism which may be stopped in its tracks by CGT. Wales has long time had a second home issue going on and people started to burn them out in the 80's.

This was well parodied on Not the 9 o'clock news via the coal board solid fuel TV advertisments, juxtaposing the image of a burning cottage with the slogan ' COME HOME TO A REAL FIRE. :D

Wales is done for now surely. By all means ask half a mill for a cottage in the middle of nowhere.....

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Interest rates may not go anywhere, 9-0 vote on the MPC in the face of 5% inflation. OK it could be forced on them, but for the forseeable future it may well not be.

The new inflation figures were not taken into consideration during the last meeting and some members are concerned about 'upside risks to inflation' and doubt if the 'spare capacity' is enough to subdue it.

Also in georges reply to mervs letter the last paragraph says that the government will give the boe it's full support in doing what is necersary to control

inflation.

So who knows? Maybe a June rise?

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The new inflation figures were not taken into consideration during the last meeting and some members are concerned about 'upside risks to inflation' and doubt if the 'spare capacity' is enough to subdue it.

Also in georges reply to mervs letter the last paragraph says that the government will give the boe it's full support in doing what is necersary to control

inflation.

So who knows? Maybe a June rise?

No chance.

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If you have spare capacity when the trade deficit is ballooning you haven't got a spare capacity problem you have a dead seated structural and economic problem - the one that these cretins foisted on the economy in the first place.

Edited by OnlyMe

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I am utterly amazed its got this far and it seems to me that people on the street still think it has room to go. Look at the frustration from the masked tulip etc..

I dont want it to but this is just out and out odd now.

There is a sense of denial amongst some that the market is beginning to reverse. That's because the standoff between buyers and sellers has started to strike again and as yet the real falls to come have not shown through. The anecdotal evidence that the great crash is on the way is already increasing. The figures are catching up. Land Reg shows falls, not rises in recent months. Nothing but the best property, in just the right place is sellling where I am. So much inventory appearing on Rightmove I cannot believe it. IT IS THE MOST DANGEROUS TIME TO BUY A HOME IN LIVING MEMORY. I think it is VERY possible, that the forthcoming correction will be the sharpest since WW11. Commentators may write afterwards that the 'signs were already there' as others pretend 'no one knew it was coming'. Market volatility is increasing week by week around the world. Could it get better from here and we are all wrong? Very Doubtful: The chances that the world economy can recover without a huge market correction and even sovereign defaults is now so slim as to seem almost impossible. It has gone too far and the incestuous intertwined debts of banks and govts are so vast that it now threatens the Euro.

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Wales is done for now surely. By all means ask half a mill for a cottage in the middle of nowhere.....

I've seen a 3 bed detached house, 6 years old, in mid-Wales (Powys), small village for £130k. Reduced from £140k in Feb. On the market since Oct 2008.

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I've seen a 3 bed detached house, 6 years old, in mid-Wales (Powys), small village for £130k. Reduced from £140k in Feb. On the market since Oct 2008.

Nice, you going to buy it then ? :D

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The new inflation figures were not taken into consideration during the last meeting and some members are concerned about 'upside risks to inflation' and doubt if the 'spare capacity' is enough to subdue it.

Also in georges reply to mervs letter the last paragraph says that the government will give the boe it's full support in doing what is necersary to control

inflation.

So who knows? Maybe a June rise?

I think in April Merv was on about low UK interest rate environments being here for some years ( if he has anything to do with it) so like maybe thats coded language for im putting rates up in June. :D

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Nice, you going to buy it then ? :D

Don't know the area, may be full of 'chavs' etc, need more research. And anyway, it's probably got further to fall, after all I am on HPC. ;)

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There is a sense of denial amongst some that the market is beginning to reverse. That's because the standoff between buyers and sellers has started to strike again and as yet the real falls to come have not shown through. The anecdotal evidence that the great crash is on the way is already increasing. The figures are catching up. Land Reg shows falls, not rises in recent months. Nothing but the best property, in just the right place is sellling where I am. So much inventory appearing on Rightmove I cannot believe it. IT IS THE MOST DANGEROUS TIME TO BUY A HOME IN LIVING MEMORY. I think it is VERY possible, that the forthcoming correction will be the sharpest since WW11. Commentators may write afterwards that the 'signs were already there' as others pretend 'no one knew it was coming'. Market volatility is increasing week by week around the world. Could it get better from here and we are all wrong? Very Doubtful: The chances that the world economy can recover without a huge market correction and even sovereign defaults is now so slim as to seem almost impossible. It has gone too far and the incestuous intertwined debts of banks and govts are so vast that it now threatens the Euro.

I like your post, six months ago I would have considered it wishful thinking, not now.

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Wait for land registry figures in a few months for the hard data. Other than that here's how I see it at the moment.

The Market is going nowhere it's plateauing on the edge of the cliff and the cliff is giving way. 2 HPIs are now negative. Halifax is down 0.7% for the last 3 months now and has seen 2 negative figures in those 3 months. Land registry has been negative for two consectutive months.

Also if you do a basic seasonal adjustment of the last rightmove figures you

get another negative of about -0.6%

of the three still positive, nationwide, FT and DLG the only one I give any weight to is nationwide.

So far the spring selling season has been pretty much a flop. Add to this the evidence from

the various above named reports that supply is still

increasing faster than demand and all the anecdotal evidence from

this site that agrees the data and I think the end is near...

Surely that depends a lot on where you are.

I'm doing some preliminary looking on behalf of daughters (SW London) and at least 2 out of 3 of the properties I phone about have just gone U/O.

Of course I know that U/O doesn't mean 'sold' but it's still a lot.

Also finding out that preliminary looking is dangerous. :(

Gen. idea was just to do area research and check out what was available with view to buying autumn/winter, but we've now seen a more or less perfect property (for them) - of a type and location that certainly isn't going to be popping up every 5 minutes.

Or even every couple of months.

2nd viewing on Saturday. Oh dear.

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I am utterly amazed its got this far and it seems to me that people on the street still think it has room to go. Look at the frustration from the masked tulip etc..

I dont want it to but this is just out and out odd now.

Frustrated Tulip I am. P*ssed off to be blunt.

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Tulip's problem is that he lives in an area that is popular for retirement. This is directly dependent upon prices in places like London. But he should take heart that his region had perhaps the largest and most rapid fall in 2008 of any region in the UK, and when prices start to fall in London prices will fall more rapidly in these retirement regions.

Yep, a couple of HPCers, who have just bought, told me they believe the area has a micro-economy when it comes to house prices. Not convinced myself as I recall the 1980s but, so far, they appear right.

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TMT's area is probably also skewed by second homerism which may be stopped in its tracks by CGT. Wales has long time had a second home issue going on and people started to burn them out in the 80's.

This was well parodied on Not the 9 o'clock news via the coal board solid fuel TV advertisments, juxtaposing the image of a burning cottage with the slogan ' COME HOME TO A REAL FIRE. :D

Wales is done for now surely. By all means ask half a mill for a cottage in the middle of nowhere.....

Yes, vast numbers of second homers down here now.

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Extend and pretend...great phrase. However SHOULD they wish I am sure the govt and banks can keep churning out creative accounting initiatives, I know legal constraints mean the SLS has to end to stop it being accounted as National Debt for instance, but I do feel that as that facility is withdrawn, another iffy scheme can always be created.

There is a reason for 'mark to market' though. It's a measure of solvency. When it's hidden (like now), it continues to leak out into cash flow. Then it can't be hidden any more. Fingers in the dam type stuff.

The only way the government can continue this is to print money and give it to the banks. I think the UK has hit a brick wall here. Timing-wise, I would be very surprised if they can continue to hold on past November or so of this year.

The low interest rate has happened because the UK has largely followed the US Fed rate policy. So a rise in Fed rates, or a poor response to the bond auction, should drive rates here up. Timing is very uncertain though.

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Don't know the area, may be full of 'chavs' etc, need more research. And anyway, it's probably got further to fall, after all I am on HPC. ;)

I was only chatting to a chap last night who lived in such a house in such a village in Powys.

Moved down from London when he got very ill and he was telling me that the peace and quiet was a major life-saver for him at the time.

However, he is now looking to move as, as he told me, he simply can't stand it anymore - too isolated, nothing to do, too insular locals. He is off to Oz.

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There is a reason for 'mark to market' though. It's a measure of solvency. When it's hidden (like now), it continues to leak out into cash flow. Then it can't be hidden any more. Fingers in the dam type stuff.

The only way the government can continue this is to print money and give it to the banks. I think the UK has hit a brick wall here. Timing-wise, I would be very surprised if they can continue to hold on past November or so of this year.

The low interest rate has happened because the UK has largely followed the US Fed rate policy. So a rise in Fed rates, or a poor response to the bond auction, should drive rates here up. Timing is very uncertain though.

From what King has said in recent days, and Osbourne also, they aim to keep IRs low for years to come if they can.

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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