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Kingding

North/south Korea. Could Get Nasty?

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Made the local headlines today, and I don't live in Seoul. Makes me suspect this might turn out to be more than the usual chest-thumping.

I love the escalatory rhetoric the N Korean madman leaps straight to:

North Korea has warned of "full-scale war" if the South imposes new sanctions on the country

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Depends on what China does tbh as those A bombs NK has are aimed at Beijing Tokyo and Seoul.

NK are doing this to provoke nationalism, because they experimented with freemarket ideology, it worked but then they wanted to end the experiment and devalued the currency, depriving the proles of everything yet again and also the elites in NK.

Normally this would work as it always made the proles happy as it increased their purchasing power, but it hasn't this time because the cost of grain and rice even through price fixing which has never worked has kept on going up and up.

NK are in a lose lose situation.

They carry on as they are the price of comodities destroys them.

They threaten and China has enough of them they get starved to death.

They decide to use their Abonbs, South Korea immediately activates their nuclear program, so does Japan and S Korea will become an Island. The S Korea army is huge, the Chinese army is huge, the Japanese army is also huge, they would get squashed, and Chinese infantry would be ordered no prisoners

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will china support NK? According to some on the news, the best you could hope for would be abstention. Apparently china would be loathe to have trouble on their borders

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will china support NK? According to some on the news, the best you could hope for would be abstention. Apparently china would be loathe to have trouble on their borders

I think China will "support" NK in the event of Kim Jong Il doing anything silly. They will do it by sending in the PLA on masse across the Yalu as a "temporary measure" to assist in "stabilising the region". They will then put their own puppet in power and move NK towards market reforms a la Reform and Opening. I'd imagine the others in the region would put up with this. I think Chinese patience must truly be at an end - letting Lil Kim piss off the Yanks in the 90s was all jolly japes to be sure, but now it must be wearing thin and they have a lot bigger things to worry about. The only thing Chna will want to prevent is having American troops anywhere near the Yalu.

Regarding NK's nuclear "threat". Do they actually have the ability to deliver the weapon? I suppose South Korea/China is a possibility but my understanding is they would be unlikely to be able to nuke Japan.

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Regarding NK's nuclear "threat". Do they actually have the ability to deliver the weapon? I suppose South Korea/China is a possibility but my understanding is they would be unlikely to be able to nuke Japan.

They can they fired a rocket over Japan in 2007, Seoul is within artillery range and Beijing again could be hit with such a rocket.

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Guest X-QUORK

It's a shame the North Koreans seem to have had the fight beaten out of them by the government. What will it take for them to overthrow those scumbags?

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They can they fired a rocket over Japan in 2007, Seoul is within artillery range and Beijing again could be hit with such a rocket.

Worth bearing in mind the very, very high failure rate of North Korean rockets.

They fired a rocket but there is a difference between creating a nuclear explosion underground when you have no weight limits and creating a lightweight, reliable and deliverable warhead.

Their first nuclear test failed.

Their second one was a standard 15kt first explosion, the easiest thing to do and also very, very heavy. (4 tons)

For a lighter design you need to make plutonium, uranium on it's own just doesn't cut it.

It took the US a decade to go from that point to having a nuclear weapon system capable of being delivered on a rocket.

We also don't know if they can aim the thing. It is one thing to send a big firework flying into the sky and it is a far more difficult task to make it come down where you want it to.

You would look a bit silly trying to attack Tokyo and ending up nuking a bit of sea 500 miles off the coast of Japan.

We have a while yet...

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They can they fired a rocket over Japan in 2007, Seoul is within artillery range and Beijing again could be hit with such a rocket.

Is that the type of rocket that can have a nuclear warhead attached? I thought that it was slightly murky, particularly as they have had quite a few failed launches. They presumably wouldn't want to risk accidentally nuking themselves

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Is that the type of rocket that can have a nuclear warhead attached? I thought that it was slightly murky, particularly as they have had quite a few failed launches. They presumably wouldn't want to risk accidentally nuking themselves

At least not until Kim had reached a sufficient distance to cease to care.

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Apparently the North Koreans kidnap bathers from Japanese beaches - being kidnapped is considered a matter of shame in Japan and their families keep quiet about it.

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Their second one was a standard 15kt first explosion, the easiest thing to do and also very, very heavy. (4 tons)

I dunno unless you were wearing factor 20 million sunblock having a 15kt bomb land in the middle of Seoul would make you have a very very bad day.

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