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Blue Nose Bear

Has The Herd Been Spooked?

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Yes, strange. D'you think sbn's been at the lunchtime sharpener wink.gif

I think it was more a dry humourous dig at Gordon Brown and the whole bigoted woman thing.

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I think it was more a dry humourous dig at Gordon Brown and the whole bigoted woman thing.

It was Sue's fault!

Soz - should have been clearer - I wonder what the old baggy faced madman is up to these days.

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It was Sue's fault!

Soz - should have been clearer - I wonder what the old baggy faced madman is up to these days.

Not sure, but I get great comfort in thinking that his fall from grace, has reduced him to some salivating gibbering wreck sat rocking backwards and forwards in the corner of some darkened room. rolleyes.gif

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When I first joined in late 2005 I thought we would just have a moderate 20% - 30% correction as the enthusiasm for property wore off and people got bored of very modest returns on very pricey property. Relatively few people would get hurt and the economy would have shrugged it off relatively easy.

Instead we had another 2 years of rampant HPI fueled by crazy lending and property porn at the same time as Brown went on his lunatic spending spree. Result: banks under water, government borrowing out of control and all of us facing 10 or more years of serious austerity as a result.

Very sad that we've ended up here and very angry that it's been allowed to happen.

This was my view point also. I bought in 2002 knowing we were just entering into bubble territory (4X income), and after I bought prices rocketed for 2 years to take us to an unprecedented 5.5X income in 2005/2004. We went travelling end of 05 and when we came back in 06 I was fully expecting the crash to be well on the way. As an owner of a house I was not too bothered because I wanted to up size and did not care if I lost some of my gains on my current house, after all it was a home and not something I wanted to speculate with.

Then along came higher income ratios and 100% + mortgages, coupled with the sweetener of lower rates, complete insanity.

I set a target where I would sell my house and speculate with my home given this is what the government was encouraging in the opposite direction. It hit that target very quickly and I sold. We still have 40% to go from here and I am not banking on wage inflation to do the donkey work.

What a mess.

http://www.fsponline-recommends.co.uk/page.aspx?u=mwpropertyIIe&tc=NMYKL401&PromotionID=2147066763&

mwk_property_B-5.gif

mwk_property_B-3.gif

Edited by Confounded

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You know what I can't quite get my head around? The apparently sudden shifts in popular thinking.

All of a sudden, just before the election, a lot of people began talking about the deficit and national debt. Yet, there wasn't really a big MSM push or expose about it, so where did this sudden cognition come form?

I noticed it because I had been banging on about the potential problems with the budget deficit as far back as 05; whenever I spoke about it, even as late as mid-2009, people regarded me as a nutter.

Then all of a sudden, everyone seemed to "get it" and talk about the deficit and national debt in wise, concerned tones as though they'd known about it for years -- but they hadn't. And I know because I kept writing and banging on about it to no avail, and I remember the reactions I got, even as late as Dec 09.

It's the same with Europe. I remember at the beginning of 2009 stupidly saying in the office that I thought there could be severe civil unrest in Europe with the next four years, the euro and the eurozone could collapse, and we could see at war in Europe in our lifetimes (I did, however, also say that I thought there was a danger of civil war brewing in Britain). The guffaws I got were astounding; yet now, the people in my office keep saying things in wise tones like "well, it always looked pretty inevitable that the underlying circumstances of the euro were unstable" as though they had accepted the truth of this all along.

(I still think we could see a form of civil political struggle in Britain, by the way. I can actually see the early signs of a fundamental political split brewing on the ground between Big State bods and Small State bods, between Social Democrats and Libertarian Democrats, and I do think it will play out in an anti-establishment sense, seeing that the British establishment is now largely a NuLabour-lite Social Democrat elite).

What does this have to do with HPC? Well, I think , all of a sudden, everyone will suddenly "get it" that housing is massively overvalued, that house prices are daft, and this sudden cognition will come completely out of the blue.

The Herd won't be spooked until they have already started stampeding.

Edited by dissident junk

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You know what I can't quite get my head around? The apparently sudden shifts in popular thinking.

All of a sudden, just before the election, a lot of people began talking about the deficit and national debt. Yet, there wasn't really a big MSM push or expose about it, so where did this sudden cognition come form?

I noticed it because I had been banging on about the potential problems with the budget deficit as far back as 05; whenever I spoke about it, even as late as mid-2009, people regarded me as a nutter.

Then all of a sudden, everyone seemed to "get it" and talk about the deficit and national debt in wise, concerned tones as though they'd known about it for years -- but they hadn't. And I know because I kept writing and banging on about it to no avail, and I remember the reactions I got, even as late as Dec 09.

It's the same with Europe. I remember at the beginning of 2009 stupidly saying in the office that I thought there could be severe civil unrest in Europe with the next four years, the euro and the eurozone could collapse, and we could see at war in Europe in our lifetimes (I did, however, also say that I thought there was a danger of civil war brewing in Britain). The guffaws I got were astounding; yet now, the people in my office keep saying things in wise tones like "well, it always looked pretty inevitable that the underlying circumstances of the euro were unstable" as though they had accepted the truth of this all along.

(I still think we could see a form of civil political struggle in Britain, by the way. I can actually see the early signs of a fundamental political split brewing on the ground between Big State bods and Small State bods, between Social Democrats and Libertarian Democrats, and I do think it will play out in an anti-establishment sense, seeing that the British establishment is now largely a NuLabour-lite Social Democrat elite).

What does this have to do with HPC? Well, I think , all of a sudden, everyone will suddenly "get it" that housing is massively overvalued, that house prices are daft, and this sudden cognition will come completely out of the blue.

The Herd won't be spooked until they have already started stampeding.

It's just human psychology.

And I don't see much difference between the old USSR and the EU. Both were imposed top down against the will of the people.

Big mistake to have a common currency. Will they revert back to their original currencies?

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You know what I can't quite get my head around? The apparently sudden shifts in popular thinking.

All of a sudden, just before the election, a lot of people began talking about the deficit and national debt. Yet, there wasn't really a big MSM push or expose about it, so where did this sudden cognition come form?

I noticed it because I had been banging on about the potential problems with the budget deficit as far back as 05; whenever I spoke about it, even as late as mid-2009, people regarded me as a nutter.

Then all of a sudden, everyone seemed to "get it" and talk about the deficit and national debt in wise, concerned tones as though they'd known about it for years -- but they hadn't. And I know because I kept writing and banging on about it to no avail, and I remember the reactions I got, even as late as Dec 09.

It's the same with Europe. I remember at the beginning of 2009 stupidly saying in the office that I thought there could be severe civil unrest in Europe with the next four years, the euro and the eurozone could collapse, and we could see at war in Europe in our lifetimes (I did, however, also say that I thought there was a danger of civil war brewing in Britain). The guffaws I got were astounding; yet now, the people in my office keep saying things in wise tones like "well, it always looked pretty inevitable that the underlying circumstances of the euro were unstable" as though they had accepted the truth of this all along.

(I still think we could see a form of civil political struggle in Britain, by the way. I can actually see the early signs of a fundamental political split brewing on the ground between Big State bods and Small State bods, between Social Democrats and Libertarian Democrats, and I do think it will play out in an anti-establishment sense, seeing that the British establishment is now largely a NuLabour-lite Social Democrat elite).

What does this have to do with HPC? Well, I think , all of a sudden, everyone will suddenly "get it" that housing is massively overvalued, that house prices are daft, and this sudden cognition will come completely out of the blue.

The Herd won't be spooked until they have already started stampeding.

Oh I think we're well into the "getting it" phase.

The fact is the country cannot recover from it's current unsustainable economic state. If house prices rise, rents will rise and with no wage inflation and sprialing inflation elsewhere those who have to rent (i.e. low paid and/or unskilled) will be defaulting by thier hundreds with little or no chance of dragging themselves out of the hole.

Better for the highly paid and highly skilled to take the hit by HPC, they will moan and bleat but have the where withall to recover, meanwhile rents come down, cost of living remains stable(ish) and we end up with a sustainable starting point to place controls in place to prevent HPI and over indebtedness.

Nirvana, I know, but I live in hope that something can be salvaged from the NuLabor legacy. :)

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You know what I can't quite get my head around? The apparently sudden shifts in popular thinking.

All of a sudden, just before the election, a lot of people began talking about the deficit and national debt. Yet, there wasn't really a big MSM push or expose about it, so where did this sudden cognition come form?

I noticed it because I had been banging on about the potential problems with the budget deficit as far back as 05; whenever I spoke about it, even as late as mid-2009, people regarded me as a nutter.

Then all of a sudden, everyone seemed to "get it" and talk about the deficit and national debt in wise, concerned tones as though they'd known about it for years -- but they hadn't. And I know because I kept writing and banging on about it to no avail, and I remember the reactions I got, even as late as Dec 09.

It's the same with Europe. I remember at the beginning of 2009 stupidly saying in the office that I thought there could be severe civil unrest in Europe with the next four years, the euro and the eurozone could collapse, and we could see at war in Europe in our lifetimes (I did, however, also say that I thought there was a danger of civil war brewing in Britain). The guffaws I got were astounding; yet now, the people in my office keep saying things in wise tones like "well, it always looked pretty inevitable that the underlying circumstances of the euro were unstable" as though they had accepted the truth of this all along.

(I still think we could see a form of civil political struggle in Britain, by the way. I can actually see the early signs of a fundamental political split brewing on the ground between Big State bods and Small State bods, between Social Democrats and Libertarian Democrats, and I do think it will play out in an anti-establishment sense, seeing that the British establishment is now largely a NuLabour-lite Social Democrat elite).

What does this have to do with HPC? Well, I think , all of a sudden, everyone will suddenly "get it" that housing is massively overvalued, that house prices are daft, and this sudden cognition will come completely out of the blue.

The Herd won't be spooked until they have already started stampeding.

It is the aftermath of a lieing bunch of champaigne socialists corrupt enough to do enything to cling to power - with the majority stupid enough to believe that the recovery was 'locked in'.

The smoke and mirrors used (QE and record low IRs) have made the situation even worse and with inflation continuing to rise we are now in an end game dance with reality.

Every little bit of bad news each day, and it comes every day, awakens yet more of the hurd.

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Nice charts.

Maybe this one fits too

h

I did included that graph in my original post but then chose to edit it out because I realised it was out of date already, we are currently seeing 10% yoy rises which are not shown on the graph.

I do believe the bigger and longer the bubble the bigger and longer the crash and think many on here are too optimistic regarding the bottom for this market.

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I noticed it because I had been banging on about the potential problems with the budget deficit as far back as 05; whenever I spoke about it, even as late as mid-2009, people regarded me as a nutter.

Quite so although people in the know were starting to notice the problems back in 2005. Trawling through the accountingweb archive I find the following dated 20/07/2005:

Chancellor Gordon Brown has reduced the risk of having to announce unpleasant tax news in next year's Budget by modifying his own 'golden rule' on public finances. In a statement to the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday 19 July, Brown said that the current economic cycle started in 1997, rather than in 1999 as previously estimated. That means Brown can include around £10 billion of extra surplus from 1997 to 1999 when calculating whether he has met his golden rule - which states that budget deficits must be balanced with surpluses over an economic cycle. Before announcing the change, it seemed likely that Brown would be forced to raise taxes next year in order to meet his rule, because of the recent period of economic slowdown and reduced tax receipts.

Brown also announced on Tuesday that he is delaying his review of public spending until 2007, a year later than expected. That further reduces the pressure on Brown, as it means he won't have to find extra money next year to meet new public spending commitments.

However, the spectre of tax rises has not gone away, despite Brown having 'fiddled the figures' - as the Tories put it. Any amount of fiddling will not obscure the fact that the economy is not performing as well as Brown expected, and tax revenues will therefore be lower than projected.

It may have given him some slack, but Brown is also getting plenty of flack about his recent sleight of hand over his golden rule. 'It's purely a political move,' says Stephen Quest. 'There is less damage in arguing that the economic cycle started earlier than in breaking his rule. But it doesn't make much difference in the real world. It's a bit pathetic that he couldn't just admit that he's broken his rule a little bit.' Quest adds: 'Brown is not going to be Chancellor by the end of Parliament, and he may get a rough ride. But I think he's due for one.

And we all know what happened next. :(

Edited by Goat

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You know what I can't quite get my head around? The apparently sudden shifts in popular thinking.

All of a sudden, just before the election, a lot of people began talking about the deficit and national debt. Yet, there wasn't really a big MSM push or expose about it, so where did this sudden cognition come form?

I noticed it because I had been banging on about the potential problems with the budget deficit as far back as 05; whenever I spoke about it, even as late as mid-2009, people regarded me as a nutter.

Then all of a sudden, everyone seemed to "get it" and talk about the deficit and national debt in wise, concerned tones as though they'd known about it for years -- but they hadn't. And I know because I kept writing and banging on about it to no avail, and I remember the reactions I got, even as late as Dec 09.

What does this have to do with HPC? Well, I think , all of a sudden, everyone will suddenly "get it" that housing is massively overvalued, that house prices are daft, and this sudden cognition will come completely out of the blue.

The Herd won't be spooked until they have already started stampeding.

Soon perhaps people will understand en masse how their means of exchange, the broad money supply, is literally on loan to them from commercial banks, and that someone somewhere is paying interest on almost every pound in circulation.

They might then ask themselves why we don't, as a trading people, organise our own debt-free, persistently circulating means of exchange, at negligible existential cost.

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." -- Henry Ford

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Sure.

He made the mess, pulled the wool over people's eyes, and bamboozled them into think that

debts could go on rising forever.

A pity that Gordon cannot take his people off somewhere, and make an even bigger mess someplace.

Irony is lost on this board.

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I do believe the bigger and longer the bubble the bigger and longer the crash and think many on here are too optimistic regarding the bottom for this market.

I used to think that, but my view has been tempered by the fact that the bubble was fully inflated where I live by 2003 and has been at, or about, the same level of bubbliciousness ever since.

If a bubble inflates, but does not burst, and then stops being inflated - is it still a bubble?

House prices in Berkshire

That graph shows prices roughly the same at the end of 2003 and the beginning of 2009. Since then, alas, despite the credit crunch, the lack of first time buyers and a lower level of transactions, prices have risen.

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I used to think that, but my view has been tempered by the fact that the bubble was fully inflated where I live by 2003 and has been at, or about, the same level of bubbliciousness ever since.

If a bubble inflates, but does not burst, and then stops being inflated - is it still a bubble?

House prices in Berkshire

That graph shows prices roughly the same at the end of 2003 and the beginning of 2009. Since then, alas, despite the credit crunch, the lack of first time buyers and a lower level of transactions, prices have risen.

£240,000 = £320,000 :unsure: Think that extra 33% might count as a bit of an increase, even for Berkshire.

I'm happy to agree that in Berkshire + similar a lot of the growth was between about 1997 and 2003 but 2 points:

  1. The bubble very clearly burst in 2007 only to be patched up and partially re-inflated by extraordinary measures.

  2. The current bubble hasn't burst yet

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Not sure, but I get great comfort in thinking that his fall from grace, has reduced him to some salivating gibbering wreck sat rocking backwards and forwards in the corner of some darkened room. rolleyes.gif

I think of him as being liveing rough in the heather in Scotland, trying to avoid those intent on revenge.

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I used to think that, but my view has been tempered by the fact that the bubble was fully inflated where I live by 2003 and has been at, or about, the same level of bubbliciousness ever since.

If a bubble inflates, but does not burst, and then stops being inflated - is it still a bubble?

House prices in Berkshire

That graph shows prices roughly the same at the end of 2003 and the beginning of 2009. Since then, alas, despite the credit crunch, the lack of first time buyers and a lower level of transactions, prices have risen.

The huge drop in volumes and price action to me fully illustrate the reason prices have not fallen. Banks are being allowed to park losses off balance, and interest rates are at 350 year lows. Action starts when rates rise...

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I think of him as being liveing rough in the heather in Scotland, trying to avoid those intent on revenge.

He moved to Edinburgh, so prob sat on Arthur's seat (wundering how it all went so wrong (or right - if he was that evil)) scheming up 'ideas' for his new "poverty breaking" role with the IMF!

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All of a sudden, just before the election, a lot of people began talking about the deficit and national debt. Yet, there wasn't really a big MSM push or expose about it, so where did this sudden cognition come form?

Good point, my guess is that it was a ploy by the Tories to undermine both Labour and the Lib Dems (for different reasons) before the election. I'm sure Tory fanatics will disagree with me but I think it worked rather well as the swing to the Tories was one of the best on record IIUC.

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£215,000 for a 2 bed flat in an ugly building in Coventry?? Even at the more recent £100k asking price it looks decidedly over priced.

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A comparison of the last 10 weeks of available properties on Rightmove in selected Bristol postcodes:

  DAY   DATE   BS1   BS3   BS4   BS6   BS7   BS8   BS9       Total===================================================================  Wed 100310    96   180   260   162   195   202   165        1260  Wed 170310    89   178   271   167   199   208   157        1269  Wed 240310    98   187   268   180   217   218   157        1325  Wed 310310   102   209   278   184   228   229   156        1386  Wed 070410   105   215   280   181   227   226   157        1391  Wed 140410   106   225   285   183   242   246   159        1446  Wed 210410    97   228   289   193   257   241   153        1458  Wed 280410    98   228   294   199   247   243   155        1464  Wed 050510   105   235   296   213   252   248   158        1507  Wed 120510   111   240   306   213   267   259   164        1560  Wed 190510   113   240   301   217   273   268   177        1589% increase      17%   33%   15%   33%   40%   32%    7%         26%

BS6, BS7 and BS8 are the most desirable areas and have the largest increase in stock

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  • 277 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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