Has The Herd Been Spooked?

Blue Nose Bear · May 19, 2010

Lots of new properties coming onto the market in the Poole area:

Rightmove:

43 in the last 24hrs

101 in the last 3 days

261 in the last 7 days

From millionaires country piles and sandbanks holiday homes to loads of flats and apartments.

Doesn't seem to be a large percentage of homes, looking very much like off loading second homes and BTL flats.

Anyone else seeing this?

Mugwump Boy · May 19, 2010

One of the interesting things about logging into HPC and following the news so closely is you can see MSM trends developing really clearly.

A year or so ago it was all about green shoots. Six months ago, the recovery was about to be "locked in". Then we started hearing about the threat of double dips. Then the election rattled cages and comments about the "silence" over the economy from the main parties. We had a few rumblings about cuts now/next year. Post election, the skeletons have been falling out of the closet like nine pins and everyone is jumping aboard the UK as HMS Titanic meme.

Yesterday I listened to Radio 4 and heard everyone talking about the "economic crisis" facing the UK in grave terms - debt, deficit, etc. etc.

The awareness of doom has now gone mainstream I think. The problem (and advanatage) of HPC.co.uk is this site is always about 9 months ahead of the sheeple curve. So it doesn't surprise me to see a flood of properties coming on now. Home owners are spooked - the realisation that cuts are coming has hit home (as it were) as has the CGT threat.

They haven't yet discovered the terms sovereign debt crisis (or gold bull market) yet... but when they do...

Mega · May 19, 2010

Poped in to see my Father in my old home town............he just got his new car (after the Liverpool Scum took his last).

Asked if i like a drive of it , so i took it for a drive on my old bike roads around the town...............i was shocked!

Having lived there for so many years i can NEVER recall a time when i seen SO MANY "FOR SALE" signs!

Also a contact in the Midlands tells me that its the same by him & 3 BTL house have now gone from "To Let" to "For Sale" in the last week!

Mike

Pent Up · May 19, 2010

Lots of new properties coming onto the market in the Poole area:

Rightmove:

43 in the last 24hrs

101 in the last 3 days

261 in the last 7 days

From millionaires country piles and sandbanks holiday homes to loads of flats and apartments.

Doesn't seem to be a large percentage of homes, looking very much like off loading second homes and BTL flats.

Anyone else seeing this?

there have been quite a few threads on stock increases/price reductions over the last couple of weeks so it seems to be across the board.

Chelmsford Essex. Stock has increased nearly 15% since early march.

Spongethrower · May 19, 2010

Did you see the piece on Newsnight last night? Bunch of 'properties for pensions' mulling around a golf course moaning about the possible new CGT increase. I sensed a certain removal from the normal smugness.

lets get it right · May 19, 2010

For heaven's sake, someone get Gordon back. It was all okay when he was in charge.

winkie · May 19, 2010

Lots of new properties coming onto the market in the Poole area:

Rightmove:

43 in the last 24hrs

101 in the last 3 days

261 in the last 7 days

From millionaires country piles and sandbanks holiday homes to loads of flats and apartments.

Doesn't seem to be a large percentage of homes, looking very much like off loading second homes and BTL flats.

Anyone else seeing this?

Spoke to the owner of a large removal company yesterday...they said where doing three quotes that day, one moving to Somerset one Dorset and the other was to Devon.

bricor mortis · May 19, 2010

Spoke to the owner of a large removal company yesterday...they said where doing three quotes that day, one moving to Somerset one Dorset and the other was to Devon.

So from where ? Care to share ?

betterToDo · May 19, 2010

I'm not one for predictions, but I read vast quantities of stuff (mostly crap but it has to be done) and my combined opinion, for what its worth, is that I've never been more bearish than right now. This is not an invitation to shoot me down (I have to be frank, I think people who confidently declare the nature of the future are idiots after attention), but it is now everywhere I look. After the "great disappointment" over the last couple of years which I've seen dissected and explained to the nth degree, I suspect the chickens are finally having their say about when and where they will be roosting. I'm not referring to UK property specifically, but I see no place left for it to hide - although the idea I suspect many cling to on here that their ideal property will suddenly fall into their lap at a bargain price is, and always will be, a myth - and even if it did, they would find it a disappointment. The general theme of a change in the tide is illustrated nowhere more clearly than through the trials and tribulations of the embattled Merkel, and the new UK coalition government.

bricor mortis · May 19, 2010

I have just looked at April auction results for Butters John Bee / Stoke on Trent area. Plenty of properties not getting sold as bids would not meet the reserve price.

Much more so than usual. People declining houses sub- 60,000 ( as well as more expensive properties.)

40 miles north of Brum, Stoke has always been cheap, but to me it has been useful as a bellweather of UK property trends.

There is evidence to suggest the appetite for bottom end investment properties is waning.

All this prior to the CGT bombshell.

I will read Butters John Bee next results with interest and I predict a lot of stuff not shifting even at knockdown prices.

So has the herd been spooked ? I say Yes.

Edited May 19, 2010 by bricor mortis

The Eagle · May 19, 2010

For heaven's sake, someone get Gordon back. It was all okay when he was in charge.

Yes RBS, NR etc, were thriving banks... :blink:

Topher Bear · May 19, 2010

In my area, north wiltshire/chippenham I am not seeing a flood of properties. A spring increase is grinding to a halt. The previous couple of weeks I was seeing 10 new properties a day ( incl. Sstc, new prices, new to market) which shifted up to 14 at one point, so far this week it has been 2 to 4. Propped right off. Of the recent increases, they have been mostly 4 beds and more. And asking prices have been generally higher for these new ones. Lots of dreamers perhaps, but supply is still very low and getting worse. Difficult to see much chance of price falls here for some time to come.

VeryMeanReversion · May 19, 2010

I suspect many cling to on here that their ideal property will suddenly fall into their lap at a bargain price is, and always will be, a myth

happened to me in '97.

Was living in the US in '96, thought now is the best time to get back to the UK and find a house. Had to wait a year until the opportunity presented itself. For those that dont remember the market in '97, no-one was interested in buying, no block viewings and there was lots to choose from with no expectation of future increases from the sellers. That part of the cycle will come again.

Step forward to 2003 when that house was sold, moved in with in-laws, a few months later a dream rental comes up, been there ever since.

I believe in preparation and patience, although admittedly this is a long wait.

VMR.

betterToDo · May 19, 2010

happened to me in '97.

Was living in the US in '96, thought now is the best time to get back to the UK and find a house. Had to wait a year until the opportunity presented itself. For those that dont remember the market in '97, no-one was interested in buying, no block viewings and there was lots to choose from with no expectation of future increases from the sellers. That part of the cycle will come again.

Step forward to 2003 when that house was sold, moved in with in-laws, a few months later a dream rental comes up, been there ever since.

I believe in preparation and patience, although admittedly this is a long wait.

VMR.

In which case I stand corrected. Maybe I've been worn down from too much trawling through rubbish at terrible value.

Goat · May 19, 2010

I think people who confidently declare the nature of the future are idiots after attention

Yes and no.

Predictions over 12 months are nothing more than a bit of fun.

Noticing that the market is massively overvalued and stating that a correction is highly likely seems perfectly reasonable to me.

although the idea I suspect many cling to on here that their ideal property will suddenly fall into their lap at a bargain price is, and always will be, a myth - and even if it did, they would find it a disappointment.

Those with savings who keep their job will do well.

Those without will struggle.

Those who have overstretched themselves to buy at close to peak will lose everything.

The chance of a significant HPC remains very high. Whether there is such a thing as an ideal property is open to doubt however there is every chance that 3-5 years from now property will seem very cheap (it was after all very cheap in the mid 90's and TBH we're probably in more trouble now than we were then).

dances with sheeple · May 19, 2010

Yes and no.

Predictions over 12 months are nothing more than a bit of fun.

Noticing that the market is massively overvalued and stating that a correction is highly likely seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Those with savings who keep their job will do well.

Those without will struggle.

Those who have overstretched themselves to buy at close to peak will lose everything.

The chance of a significant HPC remains very high. Whether there is such a thing as an ideal property is open to doubt however there is every chance that 3-5 years from now property will seem very cheap (it was after all very cheap in the mid 90's and TBH we're probably in more trouble now than we were then).

Says it all really,the brainwashing has been very strong and unrelenting, many have taken it on board and believe that the very bricks and mortar somehow produce magic money, they don`t, and it can and will get a lot worse than now, and a lot worse than the 90`s. ("worse" may be good for HPC`ers but the other economic woes will take the shine off the crash maybe?)

Bloo Loo · May 19, 2010

...same in Exeter. Very quiet right now.

Easily explained.....a shortage of FOR SALE boards...last happened two years ago.

dances with sheeple · May 19, 2010

I'm not one for predictions, but I read vast quantities of stuff (mostly crap but it has to be done) and my combined opinion, for what its worth, is that I've never been more bearish than right now. This is not an invitation to shoot me down (I have to be frank, I think people who confidently declare the nature of the future are idiots after attention), but it is now everywhere I look. After the "great disappointment" over the last couple of years which I've seen dissected and explained to the nth degree, I suspect the chickens are finally having their say about when and where they will be roosting. I'm not referring to UK property specifically, but I see no place left for it to hide - although the idea I suspect many cling to on here that their ideal property will suddenly fall into their lap at a bargain price is, and always will be, a myth - and even if it did, they would find it a disappointment. The general theme of a change in the tide is illustrated nowhere more clearly than through the trials and tribulations of the embattled Merkel, and the new UK coalition government.

I think you have that the wrong way round, surely the 'myth' is that property always goes up, and that borrowing huge sums to get on "the ladder" was sensible? Judging by number of posts and times of day posting, many on here are not wage serfs and will do well out of the meltdown. The "bargain" property they eventually pick up won`t really be a bargain, it will just be at a price that truly reflects the market at that time? IMO "bargain price" "cheeky offer" etc are buzz words of the brainwashing era,, and will be displaced by reality as we enter the "doom era"

Goat · May 19, 2010

Says it all really,the brainwashing has been very strong and unrelenting, many have taken it on board and believe that the very bricks and mortar somehow produce magic money, they don`t, and it can and will get a lot worse than now, and a lot worse than the 90`s. ("worse" may be good for HPC`ers but the other economic woes will take the shine off the crash maybe?)

When I first joined in late 2005 I thought we would just have a moderate 20% - 30% correction as the enthusiasm for property wore off and people got bored of very modest returns on very pricey property. Relatively few people would get hurt and the economy would have shrugged it off relatively easy.

Instead we had another 2 years of rampant HPI fueled by crazy lending and property porn at the same time as Brown went on his lunatic spending spree. Result: banks under water, government borrowing out of control and all of us facing 10 or more years of serious austerity as a result.

Very sad that we've ended up here and very angry that it's been allowed to happen.

sbn · May 19, 2010

When I first joined in late 2005 I thought we would just have a moderate 20% - 30% correction as the enthusiasm for property wore off and people got bored of very modest returns on very pricey property. Relatively few people would get hurt and the economy would have shrugged it off relatively easy.

Instead we had another 2 years of rampant HPI fueled by crazy lending and property porn at the same time as Brown went on his lunatic spending spree. Result: banks under water, government borrowing out of control and all of us facing 10 or more years of serious austerity as a result.

Very sad that we've ended up here and very angry that it's been allowed to happen.

You are a bigoted man

betterToDo · May 19, 2010

I think you have that the wrong way round, surely the 'myth' is that property always goes up, and that borrowing huge sums to get on "the ladder" was sensible? Judging by number of posts and times of day posting, many on here are not wage serfs and will do well out of the meltdown. The "bargain" property they eventually pick up won`t really be a bargain, it will just be at a price that truly reflects the market at that time? IMO "bargain price" "cheeky offer" etc are buzz words of the brainwashing era,, and will be displaced by reality as we enter the "doom era"

I see and already agree with your point, I dont think I expressed that post very well at all. Say someone with a job and a fund set aside is hoping the market will fall big time in their favour and everything else will stay the same are probably wrong, thats what I meant by myth. A crashed market will come at the expense of a lot other things, even if you're in a position to take advantage in terms of buying a house.

Goat · May 19, 2010

You are a bigoted man

:unsure:

bomberbrown · May 19, 2010

Anyone else seeing this?

I'm seeing this: