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Osborne Gives Up Economic Forecast Control

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As wee Georgie says, Labours forecasts were always wrong and always wrong in the same dircetion - optimistic. By handing over this control we at least get away from the endless frigging of growth stats to make the budget add up.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8685989.stm

I like this one. That's two powerful levers (this and election date) that they've given up, steps in the right direction.

I keep telling myself to wait for delivery, but this is good stuff so far.

By the way, what about the note left by Liam Byrne to David laws?;

Liberal Democrat David Laws, the chief secretary to the Treasury, said the task ahead was "colossal" and that Labour had left the public finances in an "unacceptable" state.

The reductions would amount to about 1% of government spending, he added.

Mr Laws said his predecessor, Liam Byrne, had left him a letter saying simply: "Dear chief secretary, There's no money left."

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As wee Georgie says, Labours forecasts were always wrong and always wrong in the same dircetion - optimistic. By handing over this control we at least get away from the endless frigging of growth stats to make the budget add up.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8685989.stm

I like this one. That's two powerful levers (this and election date) that they've given up, steps in the right direction.

I keep telling myself to wait for delivery, but this is good stuff so far.

By the way, what about the note left by Liam Byrne to David laws?;

Mr Laws said his predecessor, Liam Byrne, had left him a letter saying simply: "Dear chief secretary, There's no money left."

Painting a rosier picture than the truth to the very end.

p-o-p

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Mr Laws said his predecessor, Liam Byrne, had left him a letter saying simply: "Dear chief secretary, There's no money left."

Painting a rosier picture than the truth to the very end.

p-o-p

The BBC should be all over this, with Byrne hauled before Paxman to explain what he meant by it when he was part of a government constantly saying they were pulling through. It's basically a p1ss-take.

Won't hold my breath though.

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The BBC should be all over this, with Byrne hauled before Paxman to explain what he meant by it when he was part of a government constantly saying they were pulling through. It's basically a p1ss-take.

Won't hold my breath though.

Maybe there was lots and they spent it all between the 7th and the forming of the coalition.

Trial by Paxman, whatever for?

p-o-p

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Maybe there was lots and they spent it all between the 7th and the forming of the coalition.

Trial by Paxman, whatever for?

p-o-p

The "Paxman" thing was to suggest the BBC should be taking it seriously.

The note is part of a whole though; scorched earth and contempt for everyone outside the NuLab project.

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"You tell 'em, no you tell 'em, no you tell 'em, no you tell 'em, ok here's some cash! Now you tell 'em"

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"You tell 'em, no you tell 'em, no you tell 'em, no you tell 'em, ok here's some cash! Now you tell 'em"

EXACTLY.

I voted Tory, but I have to tell the viewers of this thread that this is nowt more than window dressing. After all:

1 ) We already have an ARMY of independent forecasters and auditors who would be more than happy to look at the books - for FREE!

2 ) The civil servants at the treasury already know the parlous state of our finances. All you have to do is give one of them permission to talk to the press to achieve the same thing;

3 ) The BoE was made independent and what difference did it make?

4 ) PLCs are audited and it did not stop HBOSs, RBSs or even Enrons.

What IS interesting is what this all means about:

a ) the state of public finances, as alluded to by RedK;

b ) the mental state of the Tory party after 13 years in exile;

Tackling a) what you have to remember is that George's position is an executive one, BUT it is also a presentational one. After all, he has an army of backroom boys & girls to help him reach decisions, but where he comes into his own (when he is on his own), is when he gets to present, or rather, perform the budget in The Commons.

Make no mistake, delivering (performing) a budget is THE high point of his job: it's his Hamlet.

When you look at it this way, and remember that the Office of Budgetary Responsibility will report BEFORE the Budget, the real enormity of the this development reveals itself: Osborne, who has climbed the greasy, grimey, pole of politics for so long, just to get the title role is going to allow the understudy to announce "Alas poor Yorick!"

To draw another analogy, allowing somebody else to reveal the true state of Gordon's f-ups, must be like allowing a heckler to shout out all your best punchlines in advance. Why would you do such a thing? I guess when you realise you're about to deliver a bunch of Jim Davidson jokes to a Zanu PF convention.

With regard to B ) this move also demonstrates that self esteem of the Tory party is sooooooooo low after 13 years in exile, they no longer believe the public will accept the figures as they present them. Just like Cameron's pact with the LibDems, this is an acknowledgement of the distrust that exists between large parts of the country and the Conservative party. Indeed, Dave is so paranoid about public distrust, he's willing to set up another quango just to try and shore things up, even as he speeks about cutting the size of government.

So, George loses his best lines, the government is paranoid, the finances are in a dreadful state, and we get to pay for yet another quango, when Dave tells us he wants to reduce the size of government. This really was the election to lose.

Edited by Sledgehead

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As wee Georgie says, Labours forecasts were always wrong and always wrong in the same dircetion - optimistic. By handing over this control we at least get away from the endless frigging of growth stats to make the budget add up.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8685989.stm

I like this one. That's two powerful levers (this and election date) that they've given up, steps in the right direction.

I keep telling myself to wait for delivery, but this is good stuff so far.

By the way, what about the note left by Liam Byrne to David laws?;

Yes, it is indeed a very positive, and very important, structural move.

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Mr Laws said his predecessor, Liam Byrne, had left him a letter saying simply: "Dear chief secretary, There's no money left."

Painting a rosier picture than the truth to the very end.

p-o-p

:lol:

True!

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So, George loses his best lines, the government is paranoid, the finances are in a dreadful state, and we get to pay for yet another quango, when Dave tells us he wants to reduce the size of government. This really was the election to lose.

Merv was right when he was quoted as saying whoever wins the election will be out of power for a whole generation because of how tough the fiscal austerity will have to be.”

He knew but was under threat of hillwalking if he told.

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He said every new spending commitment and pilot project signed off by Labour ministers since the turn of the year would be individually reviewed in a bid to find savings "in addition" to the target.

If that's the full extent of the audit it doesn't go far enough. They should be going back and looking at the entire accounts and revealing all the off balance sheet stuff - as well as the reckless spending just in the last year.

It looks as if they are going to try to brush a lot of stuff under the carpet.

Edited by billybong

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Mr Osborne, in his first speech since becoming chancellor, said the newly formed independent Office for Budget Responsibility would publish economic and fiscal forecasts, rather than the government.

That seems to overlap with the BoE's forecasting role (inflation, growth and interest rates etc) or will they just take the BoE's forecasts as granted for those things and then add on their own forecasts for the remainder such as taxation etc to suit the BoE's figures. It all needs clarifying.

It's to be hoped it won't just turn out to be another government inspired organisation as useful as say the FSA which turned out to be totally useless and in the pockets of the banks with the regulation lite government.

If this department is just another Treasury department what's going to be different to improve the past performance of the Treasury on forecasting.

Wasn't the Treasury up to that task.

Edited by billybong

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That seems to overlap with the BoE's forecasting role (inflation, growth and interest rates etc) or will they just take the BoE's forecasts as granted for those things and then add on their own forecasts for the remainder such as taxation etc to suit the BoE's figures. It all needs clarifying.

It's to be hoped it won't just turn out to be another government inspired organisation as useful as say the FSA which turned out to be totally useless and in the pockets of the banks with the regulation lite government.

quite. what matters is whether the budget responsibility office is stuffed with and headed by right wing tory sympathisers, in which case their forecasts will be as useless as the labour ones - i.e. designed to produce whatever answers the chancellor wants.

so the question is this, how will appointments to this (yet another) unelected bureaucratic body be made?

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quite. what matters is whether the budget responsibility office is stuffed with and headed by right wing tory sympathisers, in which case their forecasts will be as useless as the labour ones - i.e. designed to produce whatever answers the chancellor wants.

so the question is this, how will appointments to this (yet another) unelected bureaucratic body be made?

Do people still follow these forecasts, how quaint, theres more than enough economic information available on tinternet for anyone to be able to make their own forecasts if they are actually interested in the subject matter

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Chancellor George Osborne has said the government will announce next week how it plans to make £6bn in spending cuts this year.

What he failed to mention, was that by 29th of May (12 days time) we will have borrowed that amount of money already. This is pi$$ing in the wind stuff, it really is.

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As wee Georgie says, Labours forecasts were always wrong and always wrong in the same dircetion - optimistic. By handing over this control we at least get away from the endless frigging of growth stats to make the budget add up.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8685989.stm

I like this one. That's two powerful levers (this and election date) that they've given up, steps in the right direction.

I keep telling myself to wait for delivery, but this is good stuff so far.

By the way, what about the note left by Liam Byrne to David laws?;

Let's go back to 1997 when the BOE was made independent.

That seemed good, didn't it?

When push came to shove, it wasn't true though.

This is window-dressing.

The only way to control governments finances in the long term is to establish a written constitution with rules for financial stability included in it. Foxes in charge of the henhouse will always lead to the same thing.

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EXACTLY.

I voted Tory, but I have to tell the viewers of this thread that this is nowt more than window dressing. After all:

1 ) We already have an ARMY of independent forecasters and auditors who would be more than happy to look at the books - for FREE!

2 ) The civil servants at the treasury already know the parlous state of our finances. All you have to do is give one of them permission to talk to the press to achieve the same thing;

3 ) The BoE was made independent and what difference did it make?

4 ) PLCs are audited and it did not stop HBOSs, RBSs or even Enrons.

What IS interesting is what this all means about:

a ) the state of public finances, as alluded to by RedK;

b ) the mental state of the Tory party after 13 years in exile;

Tackling a) what you have to remember is that George's position is an executive one, BUT it is also a presentational one. After all, he has an army of backroom boys & girls to help him reach decisions, but where he comes into his own (when he is on his own), is when he gets to present, or rather, perform the budget in The Commons.

Make no mistake, delivering (performing) a budget is THE high point of his job: it's his Hamlet.

When you look at it this way, and remember that the Office of Budgetary Responsibility will report BEFORE the Budget, the real enormity of the this development reveals itself: Osborne, who has climbed the greasy, grimey, pole of politics for so long, just to get the title role is going to allow the understudy to announce "Alas poor Yorick!"

To draw another analogy, allowing somebody else to reveal the true state of Gordon's f-ups, must be like allowing a heckler to shout out all your best punchlines in advance. Why would you do such a thing? I guess when you realise you're about to deliver a bunch of Jim Davidson jokes to a Zanu PF convention.

With regard to B ) this move also demonstrates that self esteem of the Tory party is sooooooooo low after 13 years in exile, they no longer believe the public will accept the figures as they present them. Just like Cameron's pact with the LibDems, this is an acknowledgement of the distrust that exists between large parts of the country and the Conservative party. Indeed, Dave is so paranoid about public distrust, he's willing to set up another quango just to try and shore things up, even as he speeks about cutting the size of government.

So, George loses his best lines, the government is paranoid, the finances are in a dreadful state, and we get to pay for yet another quango, when Dave tells us he wants to reduce the size of government. This really was the election to lose.

Exactly, surely Osborne was elected and is being paid to make these decisions.

This just smacks of all those private sector CEOs who dont have the balls to make key choices but instead farm them out to consultants.

Pathetic

Edited by realcrookswearsuits

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Exactly, surely Osborne was elected and is being paid to make these decisions.

This just smacks of all those private sector CEOs who dont have the balls to make key choices but instead farm them out to consultants.

Pathetic

This change is permanent, and structural (as was/is the independence of the BoE). It increases the credibility of British governnance. Hence, it will be politically difficult to reverse it in the future. It will press even future Labour governments to be more realistic and responsible with the national finances.

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Exactly, surely Osborne was elected and is being paid to make these decisions.

This just smacks of all those private sector CEOs who dont have the balls to make key choices but instead farm them out to consultants.

Pathetic

Oh dear. I know that on HPC it's much easier to look like a hardened cynic and gets knowing nods, but it really matters that you also think through what you're saying.

If Osborne was getting someone to write the budget, then he'd be abdicating responsibility for decisions like the inadequate CEO's you allude to and to which I share your contempt. That would be very bad, but it's not what he's doing.

What he's doing is denying himself the ability to frig the growth expectations, which in turn determine projections of income, which in turn limit his spending decisions. Denying himself this means he cannot (unless he acquires some power over that body) do this and will be compelled to use someone else's forecast as the basis of his spending.

They might be wrong, but the key principle is that their views should be separate from his political interest. That's why it's a good move. To those who say we have growth forecasts all over the internet so why set this up, I say....... oh f*ck it, you're so dim you won't understand anyway.

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I suppose the critical word is Independent Body for Economic Forecasts.

But it's already starting to be called an Independent Government Body so maybe it's all starting to slide downhill in terms of "independence"

Back to the Treasury :lol:

Edited by billybong

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What he failed to mention, was that by 29th of May (12 days time) we will have borrowed that amount of money already. This is pi$$ing in the wind stuff, it really is.

I disagree, because unlike greece the UK is not well over 100% debt ratio.

So by making the right noises now and backing that up with some actual action existing borrowing costs stay under control better, so as to extend the time it takes to reach that 115% level or whatever it is.

remember, we only have to hang on until the yanks throw in the towel.

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But are these new forecasts going to be like the BoE inflation forecasts?

Exactomundo, people usually tell their bosses what they want to hear. It's a rare boss who has the tamales not to surround himself with 'yes' men.

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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