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Economic Recovery May Miss Unemployed


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The things you have to do nowadays to buy a house.......there are other ways to gain job satisfaction through dedication, hard work and determination, by becoming self employed....helps if you are savvy, like people, have good people skills and enjoy selling ;)

Funny thing with this downturn, for years I have said 'I want to get out have a year off, go do something different'

Then I get laid off, had a year off, now it looks like I am getting a job with 70% less pay.

Certainly a lit firecracker moment to start a low risk business!

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We could employ everyone very easily by going back to subsistence farming, or hunting and gathering, but it wouldn't be a very nice life. Innovation and making people redundant is what leads to progress. It has been that way for thousands of years.

When people were made redundant due to the enclosure acts, they went to the new cities to find work. And they were more prosperous than before. (rural poverty was really bad) When factories became more automated, or machines made the housework easier, they moved on to different jobs. And we grew more prosperous still.

You have to find something to do that someone is prepared to pay you for. It is pretty humbling (at least it was for me). You can't just stamp your foot and say I want a job that uses my skills and I want it to pay me this much.

The pace of change is so fast now that there are almost no jobs for life, and it is unlikely you will follow your father or mother into the same job. The next few years are going to be pretty bad, but I am willing to bet we will look back in 15 years and see how far things have come.

Part of the problem is the benefits system we have that seems designed simply to trap people in poverty with low skills. We have to make it worth working (and you don't do that just by cutting benefits.)

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Guest absolutezero

It was the same in the industrial revolution - automation removed the need for huge numbers of spinners, weavers etc.

Worked out ok in the end though.

That automation and the current automation are not comparable.

The computer can do a lot more than the steam engine.

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Funny thing with this downturn, for years I have said 'I want to get out have a year off, go do something different'

Then I get laid off, had a year off, now it looks like I am getting a job with 70% less pay.

Certainly a lit firecracker moment to start a low risk business!

Why not, low overheads and a researched viable business plan with background experiance you shouldn't have problems obtaining up to 50% finance if required....the government is encouraging entrepreneurial spirit, there is lots of help out there...good luck if you decide to go ahead. ;)

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The computer has got rid of many jobs, but look at how many it created!

There are hundreds of thousands of IT companies and most companies of any sort are not even close to using the full potential of computers to help their business improve.

Automation is not to be feared, it is the route to prosperity.

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Guest absolutezero

The computer has got rid of many jobs, but look at how many it created!

There are hundreds of thousands of IT companies and most companies of any sort are not even close to using the full potential of computers to help their business improve.

Automation is not to be feared, it is the route to prosperity.

Provided you own all the computers.

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Back on tipic:

On Radio 4's "PM" show at 5pm. Word has it that the benefit budget is going to be immune from cuts...

Make of that what you will.

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The computer has got rid of many jobs, but look at how many it created!

There are hundreds of thousands of IT companies and most companies of any sort are not even close to using the full potential of computers to help their business improve.

Automation is not to be feared, it is the route to prosperity.

What happens to automation if consumption/want drops off a cliff?

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Provided you own all the computers.

Not so.

The average person has benefited greatly from the agricultural, industrial and information revolutions. We have cheaper food, cheaper clothes and goods to buy and new and exciting things that we can do.

This forum wouldn't exist, we couldn't even be having a discussion without the innovations that made people redundant.

For example, Henry Ford became immensely, immeasurably rich. But the benefit that accrued to all those people who could buy cars, all the goods they can buy that are now produced on a production line. If you add up all that worth and benefit to ordinary people it far outweighs what he managed to hold on to.

On topic - they can't keep the benefits and the NHS from being cut that is half of Govt spending!

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Not so.

The average person has benefited greatly from the agricultural, industrial and information revolutions. We have cheaper food, cheaper clothes and goods to buy and new and exciting things that we can do.

This forum wouldn't exist, we couldn't even be having a discussion without the innovations that made people redundant.

For example, Henry Ford became immensely, immeasurably rich. But the benefit that accrued to all those people who could buy cars, all the goods they can buy that are now produced on a production line. If you add up all that worth and benefit to ordinary people it far outweighs what he managed to hold on to.

If what happens in the future reflects what happened in the past...

You ever bought shares? Look at the disclaimer.

On topic - they can't keep the benefits and the NHS from being cut that is half of Govt spending!

Sounds like the stuff about making the career benefit claimants work for a living will come to nothing after all.

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That automation and the current automation are not comparable.

Yes they are comparable in that they made some activities redundant / unneccessary

The computer can do a lot more than the steam engine.

And a steam engine can do a lot more than a horse..so what?

The fact is neither steam engines, nor computers have led to increasing unemployment. We have had disasterously high unemployment without computers and low unemployment with computers

Edited by Stars
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Yes they are comparable in that they made some activities redundant / unneccessary

And a steam engine can do a lot more than a horse..so what?

The fact is neither steam engines, nor computers have led to increasing unemployment. We have had disasterously high unemployment without computers and low unemployment with computers

D-.

Go back and actually think before you post.

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Not so.

The average person has benefited greatly from the agricultural, industrial and information revolutions. We have cheaper food, cheaper clothes and goods to buy and new and exciting things that we can do.

This forum wouldn't exist, we couldn't even be having a discussion without the innovations that made people redundant.

For example, Henry Ford became immensely, immeasurably rich. But the benefit that accrued to all those people who could buy cars, all the goods they can buy that are now produced on a production line. If you add up all that worth and benefit to ordinary people it far outweighs what he managed to hold on to.

On topic - they can't keep the benefits and the NHS from being cut that is half of Govt spending!

Automation removes tasks it does not make things cheaper (at first point of purchase), price is dictated by cartel (the owners).

i.e.

Question 1

Why does the ipad cost so much?

Question 2

why the heck do I need to buy it?

Automation does make second hand goods cheap. Because people want to purchase the latest product, if consumption drops automation fails.

This forum would not exist nor would the imaginary funny money the banks play with? All this is a double edged sword.

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Automation removes tasks it does not make things cheaper (at first point of purchase), price is dictated by cartel (the owners).

i.e.

Question 1

Why does the ipad cost so much?

Question 2

why the heck do I need to buy it?

Automation does make second hand goods cheap. Because people want to purchase the latest product, if consumption drops automation fails.

This forum would not exist nor would the imaginary funny money the banks play with? All this is a double edged sword.

Automation makes things cheaper to produce (otherwise why do it?) if it doesn't then the automation will fail as it will be uneconomical. Or in other words, consumers don't want to pay for it.

Competition between suppliers make them cheaper to buy. Simple calculators cost $200 in 1940 when they first came out. Now how much do they cost?

Q1 - the iPad is an apple product - people are buying the image as well as the product itself. (see how much something comparable costs in 10 years time before we judge.

Q2 - you don't the seller has to convince you to. (in contrast to a govt which can force you to buy anything it wants you to, this is why govt spending should be kept as low as possible)

You can live very simply if you want to, only pay for housing, food, water, energy and clothes. People would save a lot of money, but they had money (current credit boom excepted) and wanted to spend it, so they did.

Funny money has existed since 1692 (Bank of England), so we have been doing ok for a long while. This recession will hurt for a while, there is no doubt about it. But just because we have had a recession does not mean that free markets have somehow failed or are no longer a good thing for most people. (please note free markets do not mean "big business" they usually mean the opposite.)

Nothing is universally good, free markets do not benefit the people who are made redundant immediately, but they do in the long term. They require that we put up with short term pain for long term gain, and it is real gain for everybody, not just the few on top. People wish there was another, better, way of doing it, but so far no one has found one.

Edit - On topic - most recoveries start out jobless, since people scale back overtime and start working part time before they start sacking people. There has been a lot of this in the UK, so expect to see a large pick up before the jobless total comes down.

Big public sector cuts will also mean redundancies - 500k at least I reckon.

Edited by LJAR
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Automation removes tasks it does not make things cheaper (at first point of purchase), price is dictated by cartel (the owners).

No

This is only true if the owner (for some reason) cannot be replaced by the buyer. In all other cases the owner has to compete with the possibility that the buyer can replace him.

Edited by Stars
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In the 25 years I've worked in IT developing new systems to automate processes I've never seen anyone laid off because of it. Automation allows better practices and improved productivity and business opportunity. Jobs move around, they don't tend to get lost.

Does walking around with your eyes closed cause problems in the workplace?

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As pointed out, the jobs destroyed by automation are offset by the jobs needed to maintain and improve the automation structure. The crunch point comes when artificial intelligence can take this process over, and not only that but the structure of AI will not need to be maintained or improved by humans, since the AI itself can create new and improved AIs, and so on and so forth. Humans will be out of the loop altogether.

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As pointed out, the jobs destroyed by automation are offset by the jobs needed to maintain and improve the automation structure. The crunch point comes when artificial intelligence can take this process over, and not only that but the structure of AI will not need to be maintained or improved by humans, since the AI itself can create new and improved AIs, and so on and so forth. Humans will be out of the loop altogether.

If no more services are needed or wanted, then there are no problems left to solve - which is ideal. If there are still problems, then solving those problems will still demanded

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The computer has got rid of many jobs, but look at how many it created!

There are hundreds of thousands of IT companies and most companies of any sort are not even close to using the full potential of computers to help their business improve.

Automation is not to be feared, it is the route to prosperity.

It would be interesting to know what the current unemployment figure would be, if we used pre 'micro chip era' parameters, to assess a more accurate figure.

I would hazard a guess that from the 1970's the unemployment figures have been progressively manipulated by all parties to hide the growing army of long term unemployed due to IT and automation.

The remaining tax paying employees paying for them, whilst the banks and corporations took the increased profits.Aided by the politians representing their corporate interests of course. Gordo for a high paying IMF position for a job well done then!!

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The point about automation that is being overlooked is the fact that it allows the owners of capital to capture a larger and larger share of societies wealth, as the profits of increased productivity mainly go to them.

So the theoretical renaissance of long tail demand never materialises due to the fact that joe public has no spending money. The middle class that would have supplied this flowering of idiosyncratic demand is squeezed out.

And while the capital winners may well invest some of their profits in new business ventures, these too will be automation enabled to ensure most of the profit comes back to the capital and not into the hands of the (now redundant) worker.

The endpoint is a wealthy elite class and a massive underclass, with the middle class squeezed out as they are forced to compete ever more viciously for the remaining work, which drives their income down.

The combination of automation, outsourcing and debt is killing demand.

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The point about automation that is being overlooked is the fact that it allows the owners of capital to capture a larger and larger share of societies wealth, as the profits of increased productivity mainly go to them.

Wrong - they can only 'capture' an amount equivalent to how difficult it is to make the machine they have.

However, the alleviation of the difficulty of providing the machine is what they give others by providing the machine- so they can only receive what they provide

Edited by Stars
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