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Economic Recovery May Miss Unemployed

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article7128302.ece

Fears that economic recovery will fail to stem a tide of rising unemployment are likely to be stoked today by revelations that businesses are reluctant or unable to recruit new staff.

The Institute of Chartered Accountants for England and Wales says in a report that although businesses’ confidence stabilised in the second quarter, they plan to increase their workforces by only 1.1 per cent in the coming year.

The CBI and EDI, a body that awards qualifications, meanwhile have found that companies are struggling to fill posts because they cannot find applicants with adequate skills and training. More than half of employers, they report, fear that in future they will not be able to fill posts requiring the right graduate level or higher skills and a third do not believe they will be able to fill vacancies requiring skills equivallent to A levels.

Richard Lambert, DirectorGeneral of the CBI, said: “Our survey shows businesses want tomorrow’s workforce to be at the top of the new Government’s policy agenda. As we move further into recovery and businesses plan for growth, the demand for people with high-quality skills and qualifications will intensify.” A fifth of employers are reported to have been forced to arrange remedial for young recruits in literacy, numeracy and IT in the past year in efforts to get their staff up to speed.

The jobless recovery gains strength, and it appears that more people need to attend Uni to get the skills businesses need.

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It never occurs to the media or economists or the leaders that automation is requiring less jobs today than in decades past.

All they can do is note that it is strange that a growing number of young adults are unemployed, and strange that economic growth does not lead to net jobs being created lately.

They then roll out the cargo cult theory that since really smart people with lots of certifications are still getting jobs... if we made everyone really smart with lots of degrees then everyone would have jobs.

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It never occurs to the media or economists or the leaders that automation is requiring less jobs today than in decades past.

All they can do is note that it is strange that a growing number of young adults are unemployed, and strange that economic growth does not lead to net jobs being created lately.

They then roll out the cargo cult theory that since really smart people with lots of certifications are still getting jobs... if we made everyone really smart with lots of degrees then everyone would have jobs.

20K in uni costs for minimum wage job, that adds up :)

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sure the unemployed are going to miss this recovery.

this recovery is pure additional public spending...the GDP looks just positive, but no jobs are required, indeed price competition from abroad and still as yet unfailed weak companies supported by handouts, makes life harder for all.

In other words, Public borrowing has been used to hide a fall in real wealth creation.

still, the figures look OK...thats all we need to know.

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The smart ones head for uni so they can beat 50 rather less smart ones to land the dream job of boiling the kettle at Starbucks.

they have machines that autofll to boil water at Starbucks dontchaknow.

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I think we could well see a jobless recovery too. The recession has been a tree-shake for a lot of businesses. So people still in work in the leaner, meaner business environment will quite possibly do well, but at the expense of working longer and longer hours while the unemployed stay unemployed.

This is in line with what I see in the local property market, with luxury homes going up and up in price, the middle market staying so-so and smaller houses going down in price.

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I think we could well see a jobless recovery too. The recession has been a tree-shake for a lot of businesses. So people still in work in the leaner, meaner business environment will quite possibly do well, but at the expense of working longer and longer hours while the unemployed stay unemployed.

This is in line with what I see in the local property market, with luxury homes going up and up in price, the middle market staying so-so and smaller houses going down in price.

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I think we could well see a jobless recovery too. The recession has been a tree-shake for a lot of businesses. So people still in work in the leaner, meaner business environment will quite possibly do well, but at the expense of working longer and longer hours while the unemployed stay unemployed.

This is in line with what I see in the local property market, with luxury homes going up and up in price, the middle market staying so-so and smaller houses going down in price.

Yes many people now do unpaid overtime as part of their job , how many companies are getting work done for nothing and keeping others on the dole.

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It never occurs to the media or economists or the leaders that automation is requiring less jobs today than in decades past.

All they can do is note that it is strange that a growing number of young adults are unemployed, and strange that economic growth does not lead to net jobs being created lately.

They then roll out the cargo cult theory that since really smart people with lots of certifications are still getting jobs... if we made everyone really smart with lots of degrees then everyone would have jobs.

In the 25 years I've worked in IT developing new systems to automate processes I've never seen anyone laid off because of it. Automation allows better practices and improved productivity and business opportunity. Jobs move around, they don't tend to get lost.

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In the 25 years I've worked in IT developing new systems to automate processes I've never seen anyone laid off because of it. Automation allows better practices and improved productivity and business opportunity. Jobs move around, they don't tend to get lost.

Where I worked i saw plenty of jobs lost to automation , and then what was left they took over seas and shut the place down.

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I don't know if anybody else finds this in their industries, but the one thing I notice in mine, which is a growing industry, is that jobs now require extremely varied skill sets that are sometimes at odds with each other in terms of traditional disciplines.

Many of our jobs require people to be masters of all manner of trades. It is not unusual for one of our job descriptions to ask for foreign languages, coding languages, fluent PG-level English, degree level mathematical and logical ability, proven examples of creative and visually creative ability, marketing ability, and the ability to engineer sound, train others etc, as well as all the usual problem-solving/team-working malarky etc. We now employ people with physics PhDs who have creative writing or photography MAs, or CIM qualifications -- I kid you not, that is how interdisciplinary it is now.

In terms of young graduates or the unemployed, I can't see how young people can step into these kinds of roles without a hellova lot of extra-curricular experience behind them. The last role we advertised (in the Guardian no less) last year, we received something like twenty applications of which the majority were from India and China. I think we interviewed about four people and only one of them was right for the job.

From my perspective, jobs in the future will require such a high level of "geek factor" that unless young people start adding swathes of different discipline strings to their bows, they just aren't even going to get their CVs past the mail room, and a lot of these skills are going to need to be accumulated outside of the traditional education system.

It seems that the general education system (outside HE where there is a growing emphasis on interdisciplinary) is well behind the curve on this one and is producing young people who just don't have the flexibility and breadth to even move beyond one narrowly defined field. These young people are going to get a really big shock when they attempt to get jobs.

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In the 25 years I've worked in IT developing new systems to automate processes I've never seen anyone laid off because of it. Automation allows better practices and improved productivity and business opportunity. Jobs move around, they don't tend to get lost.

I do, in 2005 the tax department which was supposed to be 10 people shrank to 7 people from improvements of software, it then shrank again to 5 people, 2010 there is no tax department, they have a polish girl instead who scans things in which enters things automatically and calculates the tax for the person, she sometimes has to manually enter them due to damaged bits of paper.

But thats 10 well paid jobs gone and replaced by a NMW job.

2007-8 Auditing a new software program came out which really did streamline audits so audits normally taking 3 people were reduced to ONE. Those 2 people (i.e. me) were reassigned to accounts and tax (whoops see above) and then accounts, at which the company began a sage roll out to clients so the clients could do most of their own work, meaning an accounts job would take a few minutes at most.

Hong Kong Kimberly Street, there is a 7-11 run by two people, it used to hire 5, it was so incredibly busy you had people stacking the shelves constantly. They put a robot into the back which can unload crates of drinks and tins and standardised packaging onto the shelves at the back and side of the store. You grab a coke, and you hear the machine whirring in the back ground putting a can in at the back. YOu grab a pot noodle and another one springs out of the bottom of the shelf.

Wanchai pre 1997 was staffed full of government officers, the immigration block was massively staffed, today Wanchai immigration tower has been automated massively, you need a form? They have vending machines which require paper and ink as the forms are printed out there and then, it prints out a batch of 50 or so when the batch is getting low it prints out some more, several desks vanished to be replaced by one vending machine techie.

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I do, in 2005 the tax department which was supposed to be 10 people shrank to 7 people from improvements of software, it then shrank again to 5 people, 2010 there is no tax department, they have a polish girl instead who scans things in which enters things automatically and calculates the tax for the person, she sometimes has to manually enter them due to damaged bits of paper.

But thats 10 well paid jobs gone and replaced by a NMW job.

2007-8 Auditing a new software program came out which really did streamline audits so audits normally taking 3 people were reduced to ONE. Those 2 people (i.e. me) were reassigned to accounts and tax (whoops see above) and then accounts, at which the company began a sage roll out to clients so the clients could do most of their own work, meaning an accounts job would take a few minutes at most.

Hong Kong Kimberly Street, there is a 7-11 run by two people, it used to hire 5, it was so incredibly busy you had people stacking the shelves constantly. They put a robot into the back which can unload crates of drinks and tins and standardised packaging onto the shelves at the back and side of the store. You grab a coke, and you hear the machine whirring in the back ground putting a can in at the back. YOu grab a pot noodle and another one springs out of the bottom of the shelf.

Wanchai pre 1997 was staffed full of government officers, the immigration block was massively staffed, today Wanchai immigration tower has been automated massively, you need a form? They have vending machines which require paper and ink as the forms are printed out there and then, it prints out a batch of 50 or so when the batch is getting low it prints out some more, several desks vanished to be replaced by one vending machine techie.

Yet as I posted earlier, signing on for the first time today the staff outnumbered claimants 3 to 1 at the jobcentre!

I would be happy to just to go in, go to a pc, enter my details, let them scan a fingerprint to prove my identity. No staff required.

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Yet as I posted earlier, signing on for the first time today the staff outnumbered claimants 3 to 1 at the jobcentre!

I would be happy to just to go in, go to a pc, enter my details, let them scan a fingerprint to prove my identity. No staff required.

Big contrast to here in Manchester I know of 4 Job centres which have been closed down.

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most agencies are wafting sales speak, its pretty grim still, fake jobs do seem to be on the rise.

Even direct employers have been putting the breaks on at the interview stage until they see what the MP's are up to. Its all getting pretty messy.

That said I had an interview today, £6+ hr helping patients get some independence (private firm). Not the job I ever dreamed of doing but mortgage covered and still not signed on. Ill do it for a year or 2, advantage is once NVQ is in place you can take on Bank work (pick and choose days you want) between my normal contract jobs. In the good old days I used to get a gap of up to 3 months, or sometimes a part time position. This will be perfect to fit between :).

Oh and you get paid taking them down the pub .....my life is go00000od....

There does seem to be chances about but it seems its the more taboo, anti social hours, crap pay kind ... That said there are very few jobs that do not involve computers or a half hour to 2 hour commute!

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I wonder how many businesses nowadays don't employ any staff?

I need some development work doing for me in Sharepoint soon but actually employing someone (as an actual full time worker) to do so wouldn't even be a consideration. I'll either "barter" it with one of my clients (e.g. one day of my consultancy for a day with their expert) or go to one of the odesk type places and pay £100 for a days consultancy with someone of the other end of a computer.

Employing people is simply not worth the risk.

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I don't know if anybody else finds this in their industries, but the one thing I notice in mine, which is a growing industry, is that jobs now require extremely varied skill sets that are sometimes at odds with each other in terms of traditional disciplines.

Many of our jobs require people to be masters of all manner of trades. It is not unusual for one of our job descriptions to ask for foreign languages, coding languages, fluent PG-level English, degree level mathematical and logical ability, proven examples of creative and visually creative ability, marketing ability, and the ability to engineer sound, train others etc, as well as all the usual problem-solving/team-working malarky etc. We now employ people with physics PhDs who have creative writing or photography MAs, or CIM qualifications -- I kid you not, that is how interdisciplinary it is now.

In terms of young graduates or the unemployed, I can't see how young people can step into these kinds of roles without a hellova lot of extra-curricular experience behind them. The last role we advertised (in the Guardian no less) last year, we received something like twenty applications of which the majority were from India and China. I think we interviewed about four people and only one of them was right for the job.

From my perspective, jobs in the future will require such a high level of "geek factor" that unless young people start adding swathes of different discipline strings to their bows, they just aren't even going to get their CVs past the mail room, and a lot of these skills are going to need to be accumulated outside of the traditional education system.

It seems that the general education system (outside HE where there is a growing emphasis on interdisciplinary) is well behind the curve on this one and is producing young people who just don't have the flexibility and breadth to even move beyond one narrowly defined field. These young people are going to get a really big shock when they attempt to get jobs.

The things you have to do nowadays to buy a house.......there are other ways to gain job satisfaction through dedication, hard work and determination, by becoming self employed....helps if you are savvy, like people, have good people skills and enjoy selling ;)

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And who is going to employ disabled people? Many are losing their benefits and told to find work, yet they have out-ofdate skills and usually less experience to offer.

Not all are the 'dodgers' so reviled on these threads, but ARE a special case if they are to find jobs.

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It never occurs to the media or economists or the leaders that automation is requiring less different jobs today than in decades past.

It was the same in the industrial revolution - automation removed the need for huge numbers of spinners, weavers etc.

Worked out ok in the end though.

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And who is going to employ disabled people? Many are losing their benefits and told to find work, yet they have out-ofdate skills and usually less experience to offer.

Not all are the 'dodgers' so reviled on these threads, but ARE a special case if they are to find jobs.

1 in 5 are disabled apparently.

2 in 5 are public sector.

1 in 5 is unemployed

1 in 5 support the above

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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