Can Some One Have A Look At My Stats In Excel Plz

[crash2006]

can some one have a look plz, see what they think, plus about to run a regression model on

house prices v rpi

houseprices v loan rate

house prices v base rate

http://rapidshare.com/files/388050894/asework_1.rar.html

Edited May 16, 2010 by crash2006

[REP013]

Why?

Where's the data from?

The convergence of LTV is really quite interesting, why the huge spike in 2001 / 2.

Since 2003 seems a fairly steady £25 k difference.

Edit:

What I do find strange, when arranging the data is that where HPi is rising RPi is falling until 2006 when it rises to meet 2007 and then falls off a cliff, much the same as HP's.

Base Rate also seems to track RPi until 2003 (the close of the peak in the HPi graph). Until that point correlation was difficult to see. I note the 2, RPi / BR are getting closer togethor, I wonder how that's working now with RPi circa 3.5%?

What is clear is that HPi has little correlation with RPi / BR. But then we knew that already!

Edited May 16, 2010 by REP013

[crash2006]

Why?

Where's the data from?

The convergence of LTV is really quite interesting, why the huge spike in 2001 / 2.

Since 2003 seems a fairly steady £25 k difference.

cheers did see that put in the wrong value.

[REP013]

cheers did see that put in the wrong value.

What's the correct value then?

Where's the data from?

I've edited my original comment too: RPi / BR have no relevance on HP's (during the boom years anyway) according to your data set.

[crash2006]

What's the correct value then?

Where's the data from?

I've edited my original comment too: RPi / BR have no relevance on HP's (during the boom years anyway) according to your data set.

data from BOE BBA nationwide

http://rapidshare.co...ork_1.xlsx.html

Edited May 16, 2010 by crash2006

[REP013]

Right, that's better ..

Can I ask what you are looking for here?

To me this is a set of data you may think are interrelated but I wouldn't necessarily expect to see this over a short period, with smoothed averages or during a change in the financial climate (Boom / Bust)?

The main point of interest is the difference in RPi / BR, however you need to consider the change from RPi to CPi within measurements too - but I really mean since that point they have converged. But today, if you took the figures, they will have diverged again.

Edited May 16, 2010 by REP013

[crash2006]

Right, that's better ..

Can I ask what you are looking for here?

To me this is a set of data you may think are interrelated but I wouldn't necessarily expect to see this over a short period, with smoothed averages or during a change in the financial climate (Boom / Bust)?

The main point of interest is the difference in RPi / BR, however you need to consider the change from RPi to CPi within measurements too - but I really mean since that point they have converged. But today, if you took the figures, they will have diverged again.

what do you think of this ?

I was intrigue by Growth Rates in the graphs over this 12 year period. In 1998, the average price of residential property was £65,067.00. This grew to £156,611.00 in 2009. What is the annual percentage growth rate for house price I asked myself? To find my answer i used the formula below to establish both growth rates.

The value of the average property grew 140.69% between 1998 and 2009, or at a rate of 11.72% percent annually. I applied the same formula to find the grown rates of the average loan taken out by the home buyer, in 1998 the average buyer borrow £62,525.00 by 2009 the average home buyer would need to borrow £135,698.00 a rise of 117.02% between 1998 and 2009 or annual rate of 9.75% which was an incredible amount.

Edited May 16, 2010 by crash2006

[the flying pig]

i'm not, uh, a macroeconometrician or owt and i didn't scrutinise it carefully but that doesn't look too clever to me, e.g.

1. i can't explain why regressing annual interest rate data on monthly house prices is bad but instinctively it seems pretty ghastly;
   
2. there's an obvious negative relationship between two of your explanatory variables [the base rate & general inflation] which will muddy the waters considerably;
   
3. the time period you're looking at seems much too short to show anything - it doesn't even span a single complete cycle;
   
4. etc

i don't know how seriously you want to take this or what level you are at in terms of education & so on but i'm sure this has been attempted several times before, and in more sophisticated ways.

above all the rampant late nineties to mid/late noughties house price inflation was a global thing. the common thing in all these countries was a greatly increased willingness by financial institutions to make very risky loans [e.g. as measured by earnings multiples and loan-to-value %] at interest rates that suggested very modest risk. there's your answer, i'm sure.

[crash2006]

i'm not, uh, a macroeconometrician or owt and i didn't scrutinise it carefully but that doesn't look too clever to me, e.g.

1. i can't explain why regressing annual interest rate data on monthly house prices is bad but instinctively it seems pretty ghastly;
2. there's an obvious negative relationship between two of your explanatory variables [the base rate & general inflation] which will muddy the waters considerably;
3. the time period you're looking at seems much too short to show anything - it doesn't even span a single complete cycle;
4. etc

i don't know how seriously you want to take this or what level you are at in terms of education & so on but i'm sure this has been attempted several times before, and in more sophisticated ways.

above all the rampant late nineties to mid/late noughties house price inflation was a global thing. the common thing in all these countries was a greatly increased willingness by financial institutions to make very risky loans [e.g. as measured by earnings multiples and loan-to-value %] at interest rates that suggested very modest risk. there's your answer, i'm sure.

All data is annual, some of the data was monthly so i had to ad them up and find the avg annual rate, finding teh mean and using it for each data set.