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Are House Prices Going Up Or Down?

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Unless I'm significantly deluded the whole purpos eof this site is to discuss house prices. You wouldn't think so by most of the posts at the moment.....

At the moment we have come to an important stage of the house price recovery/crash. Even the more sceptical bears have to admit house prices in general have gone up in the last 12 months. Currently we have misleading house price indices some showing house prices going up in the last month and some showing house prices going down in the last month.

So let me ask a simple question - are house prices goin up or down where you live?

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Unless I'm significantly deluded the whole purpos eof this site is to discuss house prices. You wouldn't think so by most of the posts at the moment.....

At the moment we have come to an important stage of the house price recovery/crash. Even the more sceptical bears have to admit house prices in general have gone up in the last 12 months. Currently we have misleading house price indices some showing house prices going up in the last month and some showing house prices going down in the last month.

So let me ask a simple question - are house prices goin up or down where you live?

Northamptonshire:

February 2010 Annual CHange = 3.2%

Inflation = 3.5%

Prices still falling....

Sales volumes, Dec 2009....410 Sales Volumes Dec 2008 -412....down 2

Ar*e dropped out market, expect huge drops.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Unless I'm significantly deluded the whole purpos eof this site is to discuss house prices. You wouldn't think so by most of the posts at the moment.....

At the moment we have come to an important stage of the house price recovery/crash. Even the more sceptical bears have to admit house prices in general have gone up in the last 12 months. Currently we have misleading house price indices some showing house prices going up in the last month and some showing house prices going down in the last month.

So let me ask a simple question - are house prices goin up or down where you live?

Honestly got no idea, none are selling, but everybody in the pubs are saying they are......

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Northamptonshire:

February 2010 Annual CHange = 3.2%

Inflation = 3.5%

Prices still falling....

Sales volumes, Dec 2009....410 Salves Volumes Dec 2008.

Ar*e dropped out market, expect huge drops.

Same old story in my search area (Oxfordshire/Berkshire) - houses are coming on and within a month or so the asking price is coming down but I have to say that the initial asking prices are, in my opinion, so bloody rediculous that it doesn't make that much different so I would say that they have probably dropped by 10-15% from the madness of the summer of 2007.

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Northamptonshire:

February 2010 Annual CHange = 3.2%

Inflation = 3.5%

Prices still falling....

Sales volumes, Dec 2009....410 Salves Volumes Dec 2008.

Ar*e dropped out market, expect huge drops.

Property asking prices in Derby/Notts being reduced at a rate of knots. 80% of properties that have come on the market in the last four weeks have now been reduced in price by between 1-10% according to Rightmove. The fact that all of the properties were on average 30-40% overvalued in the first place by estate agents and deluded sellers is neither here or there.

Very little is moving in Derby. More reductions to come on top of the reductions already made. Will track what happens May, June and July. If things are the same as now, I will go in and make some silly (whiich in reality means realistic) offers to test the waters. You never know, somebody might bite

Prices so dependant on your geographical location and the state of the local economy. (Derby - Rolls Royce has had redundancies and 50% salary cuts. Toyota is having pay freezes and forced shut downs. List goes on and on.

I somtimes feel that this website is very London / south east centric. But I dont blame you. What is happening down there is Just ridiculous.

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Don't know, not interested at the moment.

I think we've entered a long term (20 year) bear phase and the trend is down; I won't be rushing to buy on a downwards trend so am not breathlessly following it month by month.

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Don't know, not interested at the moment.

I think we've entered a long term (20 year) bear phase and the trend is down; I won't be rushing to buy on a downwards trend so am not breathlessly following it month by month.

I don't know about 20 years, but certainly 5-10 years. We're going to hear details of cuts in the coming weeks, and when people hear they are going to lose their job, some will either panic and try to sell in the (normally) favourable summer period, or pull out of the house they were going to buy.

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I still feel convinced that they're going down, but when and how fast depends on a number of factors.

Firstly, and most importantly, unemployment. Job losses are going to mean fewer people buying houses, even if OOs continue to be protected by NuLab's mortgage protection schemes. All the indications are that proportionally, unemployment is going to rise more in areas of the country with a large proportion of public sector workers.

Secondly, inflation and interest rates. Even if the new government continues to tell the BoE to keep IRs down, the falling pound (and other factors) are pushing inflation up. People spending a bigger proportion of their income on essentials and calculating that they'll have less to spend on the mortgage is going to exert downward pressure on both house prices and private rents, unless wages rise to compensate.

Thirdly, the banks' behaviour. At present they have not been repo-ing to anything like the same extent as they have in previous recessions; in part voluntarily (what's the point in repo-ing a house that you can't sell and that will continue to decline in value?) and in part due to NuLab bullying with threats of increased regulation. However, they have been clamping down on mortgage lending to FTBs, and are coming under pressure to reverse this. If some sort of compromise is reached whereby they will lend, but not at current asking prices, then that too could exert downward pressure.

So I still feel that it's a case of when rather than if, but that significant falls nationwide could take 6-18 months to come down the pipe.

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The picture is not clear because sales on a low level over the last year have shown anaincrease. At the same time many homes have simply not sold and keep on returning with ne agents, billed as 'New'. I am in Sussex. Here the number of new homes up for sale is increasing rapidly. Inventory is piling up at the local agents. The tide is turning and as we head into next winter I am sure the news will be of house prices falling. Rates have nowhere to go but up. The govt has nowhere to go but spending cuts. When we are told about the real budgetary hole when the review is completed in the next few weeks, it will be worse than Labour ever admitted.

The Land Registry shows that Feb and March were modest falls, despite what you may read in Newspapers or suggested by Rightmove. Most of that is based on asking prices which is not the same thing.

I remain a confident bear, that house prices will fall back to the long term trend line of 3-3.5 x average income and may even over shoot down as they did in 1995 to 2.5 x income. That connotes a 30 to 47% fall subject only to wage rises during the period. However, we may shortly see the first public sector wage cuts in living memory.

No one can really believe in average houses being 10-13 x average income. EG Houses in Brighton have increased 60 X IN 40 YEARS, BUT wages have increased only 28 x in that period

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Don't know, not interested at the moment.

I think we've entered a long term (20 year) bear phase and the trend is down; I won't be rushing to buy on a downwards trend so am not breathlessly following it month by month.

me too.

the cash I have and the price of the house I want is are two levels which are currently converging.

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I somtimes feel that this website is very London / south east centric. But I dont blame you. What is happening down there is Just ridiculous.

Totally agree.

Our part of London still going up which seems crazy (seeing how expensive it is here already) really do not see it changing much round these parts. But sure outside London things dropping, Cousin in Leeds is waiting to buy up there and said its falling all the time. Just depends where you are really, this seems to sum it up.....

The average price of a home in England & Wales is now £225,963. At this level, it is still down £5,865 or 2.5% from its peak in February 2008 of £231,828, but prices have recovered significantly and the index is showing a 12.9% increase over the last 12 months, albeit based on reduced transaction volumes.

If sellers now start to return to the market in numbers then this may dampen both the monthly and annual rates of increase.

However, it is clear that we are seeing London prices continuing to gather momentum and, if we exclude London from the aggregate England and Wales figure of £225,963 the average price drops back to £202,226, with London prices increasing on an annual basis faster than those in the rest of England and Wales

http://www.mortgagesolutions-online.com/mortgage-solutions/news/1648462/acadametrics-house-prices-april

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Unless I'm significantly deluded the whole purpos eof this site is to discuss house prices. You wouldn't think so by most of the posts at the moment.....

At the moment we have come to an important stage of the house price recovery/crash. Even the more sceptical bears have to admit house prices in general have gone up in the last 12 months. Currently we have misleading house price indices some showing house prices going up in the last month and some showing house prices going down in the last month.

So let me ask a simple question - are house prices goin up or down where you live?

I've been doing some preliminary viewing/area research recently, with a view to helping a daughter buy in the autumn/winter.

Several of the properties I've phoned about (areas so far include Putney, Southfields, Tooting (Totterdown conservation area))

had just gone U/O. The Totterdown area in particular is littered with Sold signs.

I'm getting a feeling of early 2007 about it, i.e. a snapping-up frenzy, which I take as a positive sign, rather than the reverse.

Fingers Xed for November. :)

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Houses are illiquid, mostly unique assets. Their price never actually goes up or down unless the same house is bought and sold repeatedly. Everything else is conjecture and assumption, particularly in a slow market with reduced capacity for price discovery. Generalisations in such an environment are often misleading.

Asking prices, the offer side, goes all over the shop, naturally mostly on the high side. Bid prices we rarely get to see except at auctions, which is a shame, what story would they tell? With such future uncertainty, there has clearly been a standoff for some time, and I imagine the spread is fairly wide.

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Around here (NW London) houses seems to be going in a frenzy for almost peak prices. Lots of SOLD signs up.

Slightly worrying and was awake last night worried we'd missed the boat.

But just don't see how its sustainable???

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In my part of the world (North Yorks) plenty of properties are now coming on to the market (at reduced peak prices) only to be reduced after what can only be 4 weeks or so of little interest. These reductions are generally in the 5 to 10 % region. This is also underminining the Luddite tendency who have had their properties on the market for two years or more with little movement in price.

I believe HPC 2 is underway in this area. ;)

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Going up in my part of the World and selling...

Obviously this is due to the Earth being about explode and the only rocket ship that will escape this calamity is being built in Upper Cwmtwch!

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Going subjectively on what I see -

Luxury homes in sought-after areas are sky-rocketing in price.

Prices for the rest of the market are static or being reduced.

One local EA has had a 2-page spread in the local paper for 2 weeks running, entirely devoted to showing homes 'sale agreed in April'. Why would they do that in a strong market?

Edited by blankster

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Going up in my part of the World and selling...

Obviously this is due to the Earth being about explode and the only rocket ship that will escape this calamity is being built in Upper Cwmtwch!

must be the keen interest rates

https://www.wonga.com/

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Unless I'm significantly deluded the whole purpos eof this site is to discuss house prices. You wouldn't think so by most of the posts at the moment.....

At the moment we have come to an important stage of the house price recovery/crash. Even the more sceptical bears have to admit house prices in general have gone up in the last 12 months. Currently we have misleading house price indices some showing house prices going up in the last month and some showing house prices going down in the last month.

So let me ask a simple question - are house prices goin up or down where you live?

Nobody is buying houses where I live, so you can't draw any meaningful conclusions about house prices.

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Unless I'm significantly deluded the whole purpos eof this site is to discuss house prices. You wouldn't think so by most of the posts at the moment.....

At the moment we have come to an important stage of the house price recovery/crash. Even the more sceptical bears have to admit house prices in general have gone up in the last 12 months. Currently we have misleading house price indices some showing house prices going up in the last month and some showing house prices going down in the last month.

So let me ask a simple question - are house prices goin up or down where you live?

The market seems to be diverging along regional and private sector/public sector lines. I think it is still too early to tell and we need that emergency budget in July to come and go before we know what is happening.

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Bristol............I posted a while back to say that around the peak Rightmove searches for any thing under100k would throw up about one council flat, two studio flats and a garage. Same search now throws up 240 properties.

In conclusion as regards the lower end of the Bristol market IT IS GOING DOWN. :)

The S.E. of England is distorting the national figures.

I have posted before to explain the effect of an absence of FTB's is to collapse the bottom of the market, with contagion effects reaching upwards.

Check Stoke on trent properties, ditto Newcastle on Tyne+ 10 miles, I do these searches regularly, its an eye opener.

Check Plymouth properties, its a reasonably nice place with good quality of life.

Of course all these places will show fantasy asking prices are still being asked in many instances, but there are relatively good buys for those prepared to look.

Once ( if / when ) people conclude property is not a good investment, the S.E. should go down.

people have concluded that before, IMO they will once more.

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Unless I'm significantly deluded the whole purpos eof this site is to discuss house prices. You wouldn't think so by most of the posts at the moment.....

At the moment we have come to an important stage of the house price recovery/crash. Even the more sceptical bears have to admit house prices in general have gone up in the last 12 months. Currently we have misleading house price indices some showing house prices going up in the last month and some showing house prices going down in the last month.

So let me ask a simple question - are house prices goin up or down where you live?

Here in West Sussex it seems that expensive houses in good middle class areas (Chichester et al) are selling normally, at 2007 peak prices. But cheap flats in bad areas (Littlehampton et al) are not selling.

Banks are demanding high deposits, but offering very low interest rates. Therefore, areas where the buyers cannot afford to put 20 or 30% down, are not selling.

But areas where buyers can afford the deposit are selling well. And that will continue, until... sentiment changes, and the middle classes decide to wait before buying. Sentiment will change during the next 50 days, until the Emergency Budget. Actually, it will start tomorrow, with Osborne announcement of an audit of the country's finances.

Lets just get a beer, some crisps, sit down comfortably, and watch... :)

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Unless I'm significantly deluded the whole purpos eof this site is to discuss house prices. You wouldn't think so by most of the posts at the moment.....

At the moment we have come to an important stage of the house price recovery/crash. Even the more sceptical bears have to admit house prices in general have gone up in the last 12 months. Currently we have misleading house price indices some showing house prices going up in the last month and some showing house prices going down in the last month.

So let me ask a simple question - are house prices goin up or down where you live?

in Rüschlekon they are up about 5% year on year, almost up to 1990 prices now, its shocking

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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in Rüschlekon they are up about 5% year on year, almost up to 1990 prices now, its shocking

Really? Ruschlikon Switzerland?

Did they really have a property bubble in Switzerland then, and prices are really not yet back to 1990's peak level?

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Really? Ruschlikon Switzerland?

Did they really have a property bubble in Switzerland then, and prices are really not yet back to 1990's peak level?

Nope , no bubble at all prices remained unchanged up sbout 10-15% through the noughties, they learnt from the 80s bubble and made property speculation redundant through taxation ans strict lending criteria

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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