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Frank Hovis

Has "saving" Greece Weakened Or Strengthened The Euro?

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I go with weakened. Greece does not want to "converge" and its economy will not. There will be no efficiency increases and no meaningful public spending cuts.

This is the country they should have pushed out of the Euro as it was the outlier and keeping it in just makes it that much more difficult for any real convergence to happen; basically it won't happen.

I can't see the Euro surviving as it is but as we are sensibly out of it I don't mind either way.

Hmmm.... that had a poll on it, must be why the server returned an error.

Edited by Frank Hovis

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I go with weakened. Greece does not want to "converge" and its economy will not. There will be no efficiency increases and no meaningful public spending cuts.

This is the country they should have pushed out of the Euro as it was the outlier and keeping it in just makes it that much more difficult for any real convergence to happen; basically it won't happen.

I can't see the Euro surviving as it is but as we are sensibly out of it I don't mind either way.

Hmmm.... that had a poll on it, must be why the server returned an error.

Wasn't Greece's application pushed through out of fear they might turn to Russia? Blind eye's to all the dubious GS accounting at application time etc...

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must be weakned....more tax spent to pay debts rather than invested in wealth creation can only weaken it. same as getting a consolidation loan to pay off a credit card, but use the cash for a holiday instead.

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The evidence is that it has started to weaken, as it should. The euro will never be seen as a new Deutschemark again, but something softer, more "Mediterranean"

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Why has Greece been saved?

I didn't think they had received any bailout money yet?

I wonder who will buy the greek bonds due this week?

of course, its the no bailout in reality recovery.

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Greece has not been "saved" the problem has only been delayed. Lending more money to Greece whilst crushing the economy with draconian cuts is making the problem worse. I expect the Greek economy to contract far more sharply than the IMF etc are predicting. Greek default has merely been pushed back 18 months and they will have even more debt when it happens.

Lending to Greece at the same interest rates as Germany and letting the debt pile up to 100% + of GDP has exposed a major flaw in the whole euro project. There is no easy "bailout" or answer for Greece.

The long term solution will have to be a massive restructuring of the the euro-zone. The southern European economies need to be in a monetary environment where they can grow from productivity increases and exporting rather than debt fueled constructions bubbles.

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The Euro as a concept is undoubtedly far stronger as a result of the actions. It has shown solidarity (largely now undone by our idiot president here in France). As a currency it is weaker simply because there's more of it and the deal is a stretch if not a break of the Maastricht treaty.

Thankfully we in the Eurozone do not have the biggest EU basket case economy (UK) on board. Otherwise there would be a mass of people (me included) looking for somewhere to put our money.

The Greek bond sale later this week will give a better indication of where things go. Greece is a bellwether - it's too small an economy to really do much damage on its own.

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Thankfully we in the Eurozone do not have the biggest EU basket case economy (UK) on board. Otherwise there would be a mass of people (me included) looking for somewhere to put our money.

Yep thank god one of Spain's largest banks isn't exposed to the UK housing market....

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Majority vote for weakened than. Which is what I thought and wondered why the other countries have rescued it. I presume they don't actually want the Euro to fail, maybe they just want a crippled and subservient Greece for their social engineering.

It would have been simpler to gauge sentiment if my poll had got through the server <_<

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Majority vote for weakened than. Which is what I thought and wondered why the other countries have rescued it. I presume they don't actually want the Euro to fail, maybe they just want a crippled and subservient Greece for their social engineering.

It would have been simpler to gauge sentiment if my poll had got through the server <_<

They saved it because German and French banks are stuffed to the gills with Greek, Portuguese and Spanish govt debt. If Greece had defaulted then the French and German govt would have to have recapitalised their banking sectors, just like the UK and the US did in late 2008. This way the German and French govts basically got the other EU countries (including the ones that are in trouble) to bail out French and German banks.

The Euro is massively weakened in terms of credibility because the Greek crisis has proved that no one is in control. The Greek crisis should have been sorted out 5 months ago when it first flared up but nobody was in charge. The ECB was powerless, the EU could do nothing and all the politicos did was argue in public. They fiddled whilst Athens was burning. Contrast this to countries that have their own currency and central bank that acted within weeks.

How a currency that has to backstopped by the IMF to stop it collapsing can be seen as stronger is just fantasy.

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From my understanding Greece did not really qualify for the Euro club in the first place.

But then again, who did? :)

But as important deadlines neared, Germany found itself struggling to meet the criteria.

In 1997, the country's finance minister, Theo Waigel, went to the Bundesbank in an effort to convince the nation's central bankers to allow an upward revaluation of its gold reserves. The resulting boost would be used to cut the deficit and the debt, ensuring Germany met the entry criteria.

The hard-line Bundesbank refused to go along, dismissing the proposal as a gimmick that would open the door to similar shenanigans by other prospective EMU members.

In the end, Germany failed to meet the debt limit, while France was left open to charges it fudged the criteria through accounting tricks. Germany's bid to keep out Italy and other southern European countries failed.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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