F T Acadametrics

[Timm]

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/AcadHPI%20News%20Release%20April%2010.pdf

Reflecting the situation in the country as a whole, the current direction of the housing market remains uncertain. The average price of a home rose again in April 2010 and, at £225,963, is back where it was in August 2007, some two and a half years ago. The monthly increase, the twelfth in succession, was 0.5%. However as we show transaction numbers have fallen and it is quite clear we have been witnessing buyer competition in a market characterised by weak supply. This in turn reflects the great uncertainty that now hangs over the whole market.

[Confounded]

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/AcadHPI%20News%20Release%20April%2010.pdf

Quite remarkable a classic investment return to normal/doubble top in the homes we live in by necessity.

This will be one you tell your grandchildren.

[Ben from Dover]

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/AcadHPI%20News%20Release%20April%2010.pdf

what we have seen already is that all the bears on this site were right in their predictions that housing has got too expensive for people to be able to afford and that a contraction in funding (which seems to be getting worse again) will prevent people from being able to pay 2007 prices.

However what we got wrong was to underestimate the effect that would have on the supply side. It seems that sibley and Hamish actually had a point in their argument that sounded very stupid at the time - that people will not sell their houses 'on the cheap'.

That is what is happening. People mostly.can't get the prices they think their house is worth so are not selling.

What he are waiting for now is something that will bring supply back in line with (effective) demand. something that makes vendors sell at lower prices. This will either happen due to a quick shock (repossessions ect) or through a long drawn out 10 year period of stagnation. Either way it has to happen.

[Pent Up]

what we have seen already is that all the bears on this site were right in their predictions that housing has got too expensive for people to be able to afford and that a contraction in funding (which seems to be getting worse again) will prevent people from being able to pay 2007 prices.

However what we got wrong was to underestimate the effect that would have on the supply side. It seems that sibley and Hamish actually had a point in their argument that sounded very stupid at the time - that people will not sell their houses 'on the cheap'.

That is what is happening. People mostly.can't get the prices they think their house is worth so are not selling.

What he are waiting for now is something that will bring supply back in line with (effective) demand. something that makes vendors sell at lower prices. This will either happen due to a quick shock (repossessions ect) or through a long drawn out 10 year period of stagnation. Either way it has to happen.

Supply is up 14% Since march in my area of Essex and hitting new highs everyday.

[Tired of Waiting]

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/AcadHPI%20News%20Release%20April%2010.pdf

Weird times.

And a splitting market / country:

[Mal Volio]

Mmm

They cite Monmouthshire there - that's where I am

Those data must be based on about 2 house sales. My view from monitoring closely the market here is that absolutely nothing is selling, and that claims of +18% yoy for the last 3 months are out of kilter with reality.

[redgenieuk]

They are not selling like they were in the boom, but they are selling.

Lets hope we don't get caught up in a new boom!

[Bloo Loo]

Acadametrics price averages seem nearer to asking price averages.....anyone know what they are basing their figures on...if its asking prices it can be ignored.

[Lone_Twin]

what we have seen already is that all the bears on this site were right in their predictions that housing has got too expensive for people to be able to afford and that a contraction in funding (which seems to be getting worse again) will prevent people from being able to pay 2007 prices.

However what we got wrong was to underestimate the effect that would have on the supply side. It seems that sibley and Hamish actually had a point in their argument that sounded very stupid at the time - that people will not sell their houses 'on the cheap'.

That is what is happening. People mostly.can't get the prices they think their house is worth so are not selling.

What he are waiting for now is something that will bring supply back in line with (effective) demand. something that makes vendors sell at lower prices. This will either happen due to a quick shock (repossessions ect) or through a long drawn out 10 year period of stagnation. Either way it has to happen.

I disagree.

It is obvious that very few people will be prepared to realise either losses or what they see as reduced prices on asset sales voluntarily. What we expected was that the recession would lead to forced sales and therefore a reduction in prices over increased volume.

"Our" mistake I think was twofold.

1) A failure to recognise how much the british economy insofar as it exists is bound up in and dependant on inflated asset prices especially land.

2) Not seeing what length Brown and his loony govt would go to to prop them up. We have been literally printing money FFS, who (bar Injin, and the gold bugs who all got called loons before the fact) would have predicted that?

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

Wake me when we have Japanese style 87% contraction in asset values, when the dicks in charge realise that fiscal tightening and creating unemployment don't help their game.

[Timm]

Acadametrics price averages seem nearer to asking price averages.....anyone know what they are basing their figures on...if its asking prices it can be ignored.

You may find this useful:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=142978

[Charlie Don't Surf]

Looking at that chart up the page just makes me think this isn't a very large sample of data. If it was a reliably large sample I don't think you would see that range of differences between regions

[Tired of Waiting]

(...)

1) A failure to recognise how much the british economy insofar as it exists is bound up in and dependant on inflated asset prices especially land.

(...)

"especially land. planning permits."

Only in London and a few other city centres the scarcity of building plots is due to real, physical lack of space. In most of the country (like here, in West Sussex) the scarcity is politically generated, by an alliance of NIMBYs and local governments.

.

Edited May 14, 2010 by Tired of Waiting

[cashinmattress]

Couldn't have anything to do with the pound getting the hell kicked out of it over the last few years though.