Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Timm

F T Acadametrics

Recommended Posts

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/AcadHPI%20News%20Release%20April%2010.pdf

Reflecting the situation in the country as a whole, the current direction of the housing market remains uncertain. The average price of a home rose again in April 2010 and, at £225,963, is back where it was in August 2007, some two and a half years ago. The monthly increase, the twelfth in succession, was 0.5%. However as we show transaction numbers have fallen and it is quite clear we have been witnessing buyer competition in a market characterised by weak supply. This in turn reflects the great uncertainty that now hangs over the whole market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

what we have seen already is that all the bears on this site were right in their predictions that housing has got too expensive for people to be able to afford and that a contraction in funding (which seems to be getting worse again) will prevent people from being able to pay 2007 prices.

However what we got wrong was to underestimate the effect that would have on the supply side. It seems that sibley and Hamish actually had a point in their argument that sounded very stupid at the time - that people will not sell their houses 'on the cheap'.

That is what is happening. People mostly.can't get the prices they think their house is worth so are not selling.

What he are waiting for now is something that will bring supply back in line with (effective) demand. something that makes vendors sell at lower prices. This will either happen due to a quick shock (repossessions ect) or through a long drawn out 10 year period of stagnation. Either way it has to happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

what we have seen already is that all the bears on this site were right in their predictions that housing has got too expensive for people to be able to afford and that a contraction in funding (which seems to be getting worse again) will prevent people from being able to pay 2007 prices.

However what we got wrong was to underestimate the effect that would have on the supply side. It seems that sibley and Hamish actually had a point in their argument that sounded very stupid at the time - that people will not sell their houses 'on the cheap'.

That is what is happening. People mostly.can't get the prices they think their house is worth so are not selling.

What he are waiting for now is something that will bring supply back in line with (effective) demand. something that makes vendors sell at lower prices. This will either happen due to a quick shock (repossessions ect) or through a long drawn out 10 year period of stagnation. Either way it has to happen.

Supply is up 14% Since march in my area of Essex and hitting new highs everyday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mmm

They cite Monmouthshire there - that's where I am

Those data must be based on about 2 house sales. My view from monitoring closely the market here is that absolutely nothing is selling, and that claims of +18% yoy for the last 3 months are out of kilter with reality.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Acadametrics price averages seem nearer to asking price averages.....anyone know what they are basing their figures on...if its asking prices it can be ignored.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

what we have seen already is that all the bears on this site were right in their predictions that housing has got too expensive for people to be able to afford and that a contraction in funding (which seems to be getting worse again) will prevent people from being able to pay 2007 prices.

However what we got wrong was to underestimate the effect that would have on the supply side. It seems that sibley and Hamish actually had a point in their argument that sounded very stupid at the time - that people will not sell their houses 'on the cheap'.

That is what is happening. People mostly.can't get the prices they think their house is worth so are not selling.

What he are waiting for now is something that will bring supply back in line with (effective) demand. something that makes vendors sell at lower prices. This will either happen due to a quick shock (repossessions ect) or through a long drawn out 10 year period of stagnation. Either way it has to happen.

I disagree.

It is obvious that very few people will be prepared to realise either losses or what they see as reduced prices on asset sales voluntarily. What we expected was that the recession would lead to forced sales and therefore a reduction in prices over increased volume.

"Our" mistake I think was twofold.

1) A failure to recognise how much the british economy insofar as it exists is bound up in and dependant on inflated asset prices especially land.

2) Not seeing what length Brown and his loony govt would go to to prop them up. We have been literally printing money FFS, who (bar Injin, and the gold bugs who all got called loons before the fact) would have predicted that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Wake me when we have Japanese style 87% contraction in asset values, when the dicks in charge realise that fiscal tightening and creating unemployment don't help their game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(...)

1) A failure to recognise how much the british economy insofar as it exists is bound up in and dependant on inflated asset prices especially land.

(...)

"especially land. planning permits."

Only in London and a few other city centres the scarcity of building plots is due to real, physical lack of space. In most of the country (like here, in West Sussex) the scarcity is politically generated, by an alliance of NIMBYs and local governments.

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.