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Housing Market Quietens?

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http://www.easier.com/view/News/Property/article-27543.html

NAEA President Christopher Hall comments: “At around this time every year we expect to see a slowdown in the market as summer takes hold and buyers and sellers head off on their holidays. We are confident, however, that the market will pick up again early in September.

I ran it though Babelfish and it came up with this:

O my god I’m so depressed… it’s been terrible I haven’t had a holidat this year and her in doors want to go skiing!

If the market doesn’t pick up soon the 4x4 gonna go back… I’ve already laid-off 4 staff.

Maybe if I took that bar job in the evening I could keep the 4x4... It’s a lucky car for me, specially when that tw@t 'ipod'

Nearly ran me off the motorway swerving out in front of me last Friday?

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DrBubb,

The stamp duty reduction has done virtually nothing in terms of affordability - apart from maybe allowing a few under the wire that couldn't even get together a deposit AND stamp duty. Mind you it can at a useful time for the govt helping in some way to prop up the market for a few months during the general elections - something that was mentioned on here at the time.

With FTB's at this level chains will not only be not forming but when they break (as so often they seem to be doing) it will be that much harder for them to form again. Transactions volumes should follow shortly.

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Guest consa
THAT 8% is the Lowest FTBer figure I have seen yet

Of this 8% how many are btl, the cogs are siezing up, the only ones left buying are MTB's (MEW to buy), I suspect G&A is one of those, unbelievable.

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NAEA President Christopher Hall comments: “At around this time every year we expect to see a slowdown in the market as summer takes hold and buyers and sellers head off on their holidays. We are confident, however, that the market will pick up again early in September.
Reuters: UK's Persimmon expects autumn boost to house sales British housebuilder Persimmon (PSN.L: Quote, Profile, Research) has seen an increase in confidence among house buyers and expects sales to pick up possibly as soon as September, Chief Executive John White said on Tuesday.

Its interesting that both the NAEA and Persimmon both say they are coonfident of an increase in sales in September.

Why?

What evidence is there to back this up? They see confidence rising. Where?

I don't see these signs. Why?

I see houses on the market much longer, being sold and then coming back on the market. FTB dropping to 8%.

So where are the buyers - where is the confidence?

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Its interesting that both the NAEA and Persimmon both say they are coonfident of an increase in sales in September.

Why?

What evidence is there to back this up? They see confidence rising. Where?

I don't see these signs. Why?

I see houses on the market much longer, being sold and then coming back on the market. FTB dropping to 8%.

So where are the buyers - where is the confidence?

It's the same confidence that was in action during the spring bounce period. It's simply a case of them being in denial about the current state of the market. They base all this on some magical figure of the number of properties they thing will sell in a year, when they don't sell the right amount in one period they assume it's because people are holding off and will buy in the next period. The idea that these properties won't sell is Alien to them.

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These people are paid and make a living in the housing industry.

Liken it to a supermarket stocking beans - If no one bought the beans they would stock less.

But the builders continue to build with no buyers.

Is that foolish or reckless. Are they not damaging their companies futures or have they just got nothing else to do with their money.

If you haven't sold your last block of flats why go build another block.

It just doesn't make sense.

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"Persimmon ... say they are confident of an increase in sales in September."

It gives them an easy excuse.

If results for the second half prove worse than "expected", then  they can say:

"Results in the second half were under previous expectations, because the

recovery that we saw in confidence back in August proved short-lived.

Because of ... buyers pulled back in September, and our sales fell below budget."

I am planning to short PSN, possibly today

As an options novice - how, exactly, will you short PSN? If you don't mind explaining. I understand the general principle but curious to know where and how exactly you do it. How far out the option is etc.

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ABCD President Kris Hill commented, "This year we anticipate that a considerable number of potential buyers will be on holiday in the latter part of July and throughout August. This may mean a slow down in interest in properties for this period but, as soon as the holiday period is over, interest in the property market will pick up."

Denying that he used a crystall ball to formulate his predictions Chris (14)added, "When you've been in the business as long as I have you start to develop an instinct for these things."

Petey Leeds Queen - the ABCD CEO - is maintaining his very low profile and is allowing the new president to come up with the wisecracks.

Edited by Marina

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FTBers PREFER TO RENT...

"First time buyers opt for the lettings market

According to a recent survey by mortgage lender GMAC-RFC, first time buyers are opting out of the residential property market in favour of renting in fashionable areas with their friends. The NAEA’s latest housing survey supports these findings with first time buyers only accounting for 8% of all sales in July. This is compared to over 20% in March and April when first time buyers were entering the market following the reduction of stamp duty thresholds. The number of first time buyers has tailed off over the last three months, however, indicating that the positive effects of the stamp duty reductions were short lived."

THAT 8% is the Lowest FTBer figure I have seen yet

Yet again, these housing surveys ignore the main reason for the nimber of people renting- HOUSES ARE TOO BLO*DY EXPENSIVE FOR FTB- thats it, pure and simple - not really rocket science is it?!

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Don't forget that houses do not cost that much to build, with the economies of scale of a large builder like Persimmons £60K per house (4 Bed) would not be unachievable.

Therefore they could still keep making a good profit even if they have to sell with 30% off provided they didn't spend too much on the land.

The COE of Persimmons was suggesting on the radio that they would slow down building, this is just to spook people into buying, houses are not like oil, Persimmons is not OPEC!!

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ABCD President Kris Hill commented, "This year we anticipate that a considerable number of potential buyers will be on holiday in the latter part of July and throughout August. This may mean a slow down in interest in properties for this period but, as soon as the holiday period is over, interest in the property market will pick up."

Denying that he used a crystall ball to formulate his predictions Chris (14)added, "When you've been in the business as long as I have you start to develop an instinct for these things."

Petey Leeds Queen - the ABCD CEO - is maintaining his very low profile and is allowing the new president to come up with the wisecracks.

Unlike last year when no one went on holiday in July or August! :)

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Don't forget that houses do not cost that much to build, with the economies of scale of a large builder like Persimmons £60K per house (4 Bed) would not be unachievable.

Therefore they could still keep making a good profit even if they have to sell with 30% off provided they didn't spend too much on the land.

The COE of Persimmons was suggesting on the radio that they would slow down building, this is just to spook people into buying,  houses are not like oil, Persimmons is not OPEC!!

in the last construction recession., housebuilders initially continued to build at a rate of knots and sell at slim margins.

then the big boys collectivley decided to hold prices and build only what they sold.

there has been a lot more consolidation in the industry since.

peter johnston, CEO of wimpey was a board member of redland plc in the last recession and knows the effects of chasing volume.

i expect the developers to slow down their build programmes if they are not selling.

they obviously need a minumum volume to cover central overheads, but by and lareg these are well managed.

they will hide price reductions through the use of incentives.

it is in their interest to keep talking the market up.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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